NY GOV MARIST HOCHUL IN DRIVERS SEAT 51/41

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1580426375197954050?s=20&t=ZJUXIXEJFMWE4OjJkSRt6Q

GOV KATIE HOCHUL 51
Zeldin 41
Someone else 1
Undecided 7

[Hollywood]

Holy S##t.  LV is +8 in NY without third party candidate, and Zeldin's name recognition is 36%?  Schumer isn't much higher on the Senatorial side (54-34%), and Schumer won 80-20% in 2016.  You have about 53% (Inflation, crime, and immigration) of the issues people find most important play into the Republican strategy.  If the numbers in NY State are less than 10% on election night, I think it will be a disaster for Democrats in many races across the country.  They'll lose races in NE Districts where they never thought they'd have to spend large fortunes to retain.

[TheTide]

Holy S##t.  LV is +8 in NY without third party candidate, and Zeldin's name recognition is 36%?  Schumer isn't much higher on the Senatorial side (54-34%), and Schumer won 80-20% in 2016.  You have about 53% (Inflation, crime, and immigration) of the issues people find most important play into the Republican strategy.  If the numbers in NY State are less than 10% on election night, I think it will be a disaster for Democrats in many races across the country.  They'll lose races in NE Districts where they never thought they'd have to spend large fortunes to retain.

Schumer had a 71/27 margin in 2016.

[Hollywood]

Holy S##t.  LV is +8 in NY without third party candidate, and Zeldin's name recognition is 36%?  Schumer isn't much higher on the Senatorial side (54-34%), and Schumer won 80-20% in 2016.  You have about 53% (Inflation, crime, and immigration) of the issues people find most important play into the Republican strategy.  If the numbers in NY State are less than 10% on election night, I think it will be a disaster for Democrats in many races across the country.  They'll lose races in NE Districts where they never thought they'd have to spend large fortunes to retain.

Schumer had a 71/27 margin in 2016.

You're right.  My bad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary Clinton was running for Prez and she still lost in 2016

[Hollywood]

Hillary Clinton was running for Prez and she still lost in 2016

So what?  In every election the end result for a candidate is a win or lose. 

[Eraserhead]

I mean, that's probably about what Zeldin will get.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is shockingly bad for us given Marists consistent overestimating of democrats

[wbrocks67]

I mean, that's probably about what Zeldin will get.

Yeah, if we're gonna play this game for other states, we're gonna do it here.

[Calthrina950]

This is shockingly bad for us given Marists consistent overestimating of democrats

Among likely voters in this poll, Hochul leads Zeldin 52-44%. I've said before that Zeldin could have the best performance for a Republican in a New York gubernatorial election in 20 years, since Pataki won his last term in 2002. Hochul will still win, but it could very well be underwhelming. Between crime in New York City, inflation, the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic (and the response to it), and the Cuomo baggage, it's easy to see why Zeldin could overperform.

[wbrocks67]

This is shockingly bad for us given Marists consistent overestimating of democrats

Among likely voters in this poll, Hochul leads Zeldin 52-44%. I've said before that Zeldin could have the best performance for a Republican in a New York gubernatorial election in 20 years, since Pataki won his last term in 2002. Hochul will still win, but it could very well be underwhelming. Between crime in New York City, inflation, the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic (and the response to it), and the Cuomo baggage, it's easy to see why Zeldin could overperform.

The Cuomo baggage is interesting here. I would've thought that most voters would have disassociated Hochul from him, because they never seemed to have a good relationship and she's eviscerated him on multiple occasions. But I wonder if there is still a lingering association there that many voters who only occasionally pay attention to still think she's apart of.

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean, that's probably about what Zeldin will get.

Yup. So basically the same as in Likely/Safe R states showing smaller margins, but may nail the final vote share of the losing candidate.

I dunno why NY-Gov is polled that much since it's Safe D.

[Calthrina950]

This is shockingly bad for us given Marists consistent overestimating of democrats

Among likely voters in this poll, Hochul leads Zeldin 52-44%. I've said before that Zeldin could have the best performance for a Republican in a New York gubernatorial election in 20 years, since Pataki won his last term in 2002. Hochul will still win, but it could very well be underwhelming. Between crime in New York City, inflation, the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic (and the response to it), and the Cuomo baggage, it's easy to see why Zeldin could overperform.

The Cuomo baggage is interesting here. I would've thought that most voters would have disassociated Hochul from him, because they never seemed to have a good relationship and she's eviscerated him on multiple occasions. But I wonder if there is still a lingering association there that many voters who only occasionally pay attention to still think she's apart of.

There probably is. But I would say that inflation and crime are certainly the greater concerns for most voters in New York, and it has been said that the abortion issue could also help Hochul, by limiting the extent to which Zeldin can overperform in the suburbs.

[Senator Incitatus]

Yeah, I expect her to win by 8-11. The dynamics of the race are a lot like New Jersey, only with a much more Democratic baseline.

[kwabbit]

Persistently not a blowout. I wonder if Zeldin and Cuomo would’ve been legitimately competitive. I don’t even know what a GOP win would look like anymore.

[Calthrina950]

Persistently not a blowout. I wonder if Zeldin and Cuomo would’ve been legitimately competitive. I don’t even know what a GOP win would look like anymore.

It would probably look something like this:

This is based upon a uniform swing from the 2020 presidential race in New York. To win, Zeldin would need to dominate Upstate and win Erie, Monroe, Onondaga, and Ulster Counties (which would be a tall order). He would need to garner over 60% in his home county of Suffolk, and beat Hochul by double digits in Nassau County. Staten Island would need to be nearly 70% Republican, Zeldin would need to win Rockland County with ~60%, and he would need to hold Hochul to a low double-digit win in Westchester County. Finally, he would need at least a third of the vote in New York City, better than what Silwa garnered against Adams last year.