Barrett. This will likely be a Trump district, but I don’t think Hertel has the crossover appeal Slotkin had to outrun Biden enough to win. Also, the Democratic base in this district is Lansing, and I still don’t trust that Gen Z college turnout will be high enough at Michigan State to help get him over the finish line. And Livingston County is the exact type of place where people will vote for Biden but vote for downballot R’s.
I feel like it's a bit unfair to say this district "likely" votes for Trump.
Firstly, even in college towns actually students tend to make up a very small minority of the electorate. Additionally in 2020, most college campuses saw a drop-off in student turnout due to COVID including Lansing, but that drop-off was easily overpowered by other shifts - in 2024 turnout will almost certainly be up on college campuses (including Michigan State) just because students are back.
While it is true the Livingston portion tends to be more favorable to Republicans downballot, there's a good chance it shifts left anyways and Hertel "underperforms" by just getting Biden 2020 numbers in the County. Specifically, the southeast corner of the County has been seeing very solid growth since 2020 which probably helps Biden - it's also become a lot more college ed since 2010.
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