FL 15 GQR Lee only up 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1565831554865238020?t=p2rrmFh1qGrLrQQKhzt5XA&s=19

Laura Lee R 47
ALAN COHN  D 44

Another new seat in a Southern state competitive

[wesmoorenerd]

Cohn seems to have joined the Gretchen Driskell Club of Masochist Retreads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

45)53 Approvals aren't that bad in this Pandemic Environment it was good enough to win AK and NY 19 we may not see a typical 393 map as I said it can be wave insurance we won NC Gov so actually we didn't win 393 it was 319 and of course OH Sen and FL Sen are in play

[Pollster]

Can a mod please fix the thread title

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

[Progressive Pessimist]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

[Progressive Pessimist]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

[MT Treasurer]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

Not sure why he did it (bad previous experience with reverse psychology?), but I think he just decided to change his shtick from excessively pessimistic to inordinately optimistic.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

Evers was leading by high single digits and only won by 1-2

[wbrocks67]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

Evers was leading by high single digits and only won by 1-2

There was only 3 polls in October 2018 and they were a tie, Walker +1, and Evers +5.

If you're gonna troll and spam, at least include facts

[Progressive Pessimist]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

Evers was leading by high single digits and only won by 1-2

But he still won. The same was true of Gillum, often leading by more, and he lost. My point is that Florida doesn't reflect the national environment, it possibly never has and it's reputation as an iconic swing state was never really representative of its politics. Wisconsin meanwhile might be more appropriate for that designation now.

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

Not sure why he did it (bad previous experience with reverse psychology?), but I think he just decided to change his shtick from excessively pessimistic to inordinately optimistic.

Hahaha! I would hardly call myself "inordinately optimistic" still. I'm just being realistic with what I'm observing, really I always have. I've mentioned it many times before but my inherent pessimism doesn't strictly apply to politics. There is plenty more that the glass is half-empty for me on.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

Evers was leading by high single digits and only won by 1-2

But he still won. The same was true of Gillum, often leading by more, and he lost. My point is that Florida doesn't reflect the national environment, it possibly never has and it's reputation as an iconic swing state was never really representative of its politics. Wisconsin meanwhile might be more appropriate for that designation now.

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

Not sure why he did it (bad previous experience with reverse psychology?), but I think he just decided to change his shtick from excessively pessimistic to inordinately optimistic.

Hahaha! I would hardly call myself "inordinately optimistic" still. I'm just being realistic with what I'm observing, really I always have. I've mentioned it many times before but my inherent pessimism doesn't strictly apply to politics. There is plenty more that the glass is half-empty for me on.

I was talking about the polls being off. People make the argument polls were accurate in 2018 and they weren't. And it also wasn't just limited to red states either like someone else tried to argue. FL was off and in PA Governor, Wolf underperformed his polling as well. Even Trafalgar underestimated John James in MI!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can a mod please fix the thread title

Done.  Also, here's a link to the actual poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/591140729/FL-15-Public-Memo-090222

[Progressive Pessimist]

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

I don't really know what you mean. I'm not sure the same applies to Wisconsin. If it wasn't a wave year for Democrats Evers probably would have lost.

Evers was leading by high single digits and only won by 1-2

But he still won. The same was true of Gillum, often leading by more, and he lost. My point is that Florida doesn't reflect the national environment, it possibly never has and it's reputation as an iconic swing state was never really representative of its politics. Wisconsin meanwhile might be more appropriate for that designation now.

But I was told by people on atlas dems would overperform their polling because muh data for Progress poll in NY 19

It's Florida. All your pessimistic instincts will be true here, but it hardly applies to other states. See the 2018 midterms for reference.

Tony Evers, elected by high single digits in 2018, agrees /s

Not sure why he did it (bad previous experience with reverse psychology?), but I think he just decided to change his shtick from excessively pessimistic to inordinately optimistic.

Hahaha! I would hardly call myself "inordinately optimistic" still. I'm just being realistic with what I'm observing, really I always have. I've mentioned it many times before but my inherent pessimism doesn't strictly apply to politics. There is plenty more that the glass is half-empty for me on.

I was talking about the polls being off. People make the argument polls were accurate in 2018 and they weren't. And it also wasn't just limited to red states either like someone else tried to argue. FL was off and in PA Governor, Wolf underperformed his polling as well. Even Trafalgar underestimated John James in MI!

2018 was a very mixed bag when it cam to polling. Some places they were great, some they underestimated Democrats, some underestimated Republicans. 2020 was a near-universal Republican underestimation meanwhile. I just don't know if the latter can be automatically assumed this year. Perhaps it will be the former, perhaps polls will be more accurate than ever.