FL-GOV - Fabrizio/Impact/AARP - DeSantis +3

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1567455333840297984

FL - GOV:
DeSantis - 50%
Crist - 47%

FL - SEN:
Rubio - 49%
Demings - 47%

FL - Generic Ballot:
R - 48%
D - 46%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beautiful poll😃😃😃

[wbrocks67]

DeSantis at +4 fav (51/47) and Crist at -5 (43/48)

Lines up with most other polls that have DeSantis at or around 50% fav

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, race is not competitive. Don't get fooled by this garbage again. Safe R.

[Gass3268]

Nah, race is not competitive. Don't get fooled by this garbage again. Safe R.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be close.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, race is not competitive. Don't get fooled by this garbage again. Safe R.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be close.

Yup, the margin may not be in Safe territory when it's said and done. Still color me skeptical on a 3 pt. margin. 5-6 pts. is the minimum I expect.

[Calthrina950]

Nah, race is not competitive. Don't get fooled by this garbage again. Safe R.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be close.

Yup, the margin may not be in Safe territory when it's said and done. Still color me skeptical on a 3 pt. margin. 5-6 pts. is the minimum I expect.

I would agree. I wonder what narrative will be set if DeSantis were to win by <5%. It might be said that he is overrated as a presidential candidate. But it's notable that this poll shows Crist and Demings garnering about the same percentage of the vote that Biden received in 2020.

[2016]

Nah, race is not competitive. Don't get fooled by this garbage again. Safe R.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be close.

Look at the Crosstabs. This Poll is just pure garbarge!!!!! The Poll has Rubio & DeSantis winning Independents. If that were to be true it becomes virtually impossible for Crist/Demings to win.

If DeSantis/Rubio getting 48 % of the Women Vote the Races are safe R.

[libertpaulian]

Likely R.

[TodayJunior]

There’s no reason to doubt the accuracy of this one (margin wise). As I’ve said from the very beginning, he always has had a slight but not overwhelming advantage. Not much different from 2020. It’s turning out to be a neutral year in the generic ballot. Maybe wait about two weeks for the Labor Day effect to kick in.

[2016]

There’s no reason to doubt the accuracy of this one (margin wise). As I’ve said from the very beginning, he always has had a slight but not overwhelming advantage. Not much different from 2020. It’s turning out to be a neutral year in the generic ballot. Maybe wait about two weeks for the Labor Day effect to kick in.

The Poll has both DeSantis & Rubio winning Independents. Assuming this is accurate it is literally impossible for Democrats to win in Florida Statewide given the 262,000 Voter Registration Advantage Republicans have. Democrats have to win NPA Voters by Double Digits to have a chance at a Statewide Win.

[TodayJunior]

There’s no reason to doubt the accuracy of this one (margin wise). As I’ve said from the very beginning, he always has had a slight but not overwhelming advantage. Not much different from 2020. It’s turning out to be a neutral year in the generic ballot. Maybe wait about two weeks for the Labor Day effect to kick in.

The Poll has both DeSantis & Rubio winning Independents. Assuming this is accurate it is literally impossible for Democrats to win in Florida Statewide given the 262,000 Voter Registration Advantage Republicans have. Democrats have to win NPA Voters by Double Digits to have a chance at a Statewide Win.

Well that is the million dollar mystery isn’t it? These people are apolitical, normie voters who don’t like culture wars that rot our brains. It’s a huge risk that Ron doubles down on this, but hey, go ahead a roll the dice! Not saying NPA’s will go Democrat by double digits, but the so-called registration advantage republicans have right now assumes NPA’s are split 50/50. We just don’t know.

[2016]

There’s no reason to doubt the accuracy of this one (margin wise). As I’ve said from the very beginning, he always has had a slight but not overwhelming advantage. Not much different from 2020. It’s turning out to be a neutral year in the generic ballot. Maybe wait about two weeks for the Labor Day effect to kick in.

The Poll has both DeSantis & Rubio winning Independents. Assuming this is accurate it is literally impossible for Democrats to win in Florida Statewide given the 262,000 Voter Registration Advantage Republicans have. Democrats have to win NPA Voters by Double Digits to have a chance at a Statewide Win.

Well that is the million dollar mystery isn’t it? These people are apolitical, normie voters who don’t like culture wars that rot our brains. It’s a huge risk that Ron doubles down on this, but hey, go ahead a roll the dice! Not saying NPA’s will go Democrat by double digits, but the so-called registration advantage republicans have right now assumes NPA’s are split 50/50. We just don’t know.

I look at these Florida Races a little bit difference then you do:
In 2018 this was the Book Closing Registration ahead of the General Election October 9th 2018:
Democrats 4,944,867
Republicans 4,681,598
Independents 3,549,094
D Advantage: 263,269
Gillum beat DeSantis 54-44 among Independents, beat him 55-43 among Women
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Current Registration Advantage as of August 31st 2022
Republicans 5,227,460
Democrats 4,964,633
R Advantage: 262,827

Crunching these Numbers I'd say Democrats would need to win NPA Voters in FL by more than the 10-Point Margin they did four years ago.

As far as culture wars are concerned: Trump stoked them too. Did not stop him to carry Florida by a landslide margin in 2020 (387,000 Votes).

The Map is very, very difficult for Democrats. Unless there is a complete collapse among Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans and Columbians in South Florida, particularly Miami-Dade County DeSantis/Rubio are still 3 to 1 Favourites to win given that the Registration has complete flipped in FL to the Republicans. I am watching Dade County on Election Night and if DeSantis/Rubio get the same support Trump got there in 2020 I don't see how Crist/Demings can offset that in the rest of the State.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish! It's pretty much a straight up win by Florida standards if Crist keeps it this close!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRAFALGAR has t polled this race they just pulled NC and they have Beasley behind these wave states are just that not straight up wins but dependant on high Turnout

As I said we already have WI, PA and MI anyways most incumbentts are gonna win the Senate there are R incumbent in blue states that's the difference