Weather events that impacted elections?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are some examples of weather events that impacted elections?

[Ferguson97]

Obama did better in New Jersey in 2012 than he did in 2008, likely in part due to his response to Sandy.

And I don't know how much of an impact it had, but voting in NJ was extended due to people being displaced by Sandy.

[Holmes]

It was raining in NoVA in the 2017 Governor Election Day.

[Mexican Wolf]

Hurricane Sandy had a significant impact on the 2012 presidential election, as voters in New Jersey and New York who were displaced by the storm were allowed to vote electronically. Obama and Romney both cancelled and retooled campaign events when the storm made landfall. Obama's strong response to the storm, for which Chris Christie and Michael Bloomberg praised him, most likely helped him to win New Jersey and New York by more than he did in 2008, even while most of the other states swung against him.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

rain in northern viriginia

[philly09]

Major rainstorm in the Philly area in 2010. Resulted in low turnout and allowed Toomey to win in a squeaker.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's VBM and that means mail votes so it doesn't matter that much, but Pritzker or Newsom are gonna easily win IL and CA and in 24 too and Feinstein, Padilla and Duckworth are easily gonna win my home states I will continue to Donate but may not vote until my residency is resolved, and I won't vote for Newsom again he won't give me a Stimulus check and  hopefully in 26 we are gonna have a better Gov that desks with homeless in 26 hopefully Steyer runs in 26

[If my soul was made of stone]

The 1927 Mississippi River floods and the Coolidge administration's lackluster response to them is generally held to have helped Al Smith in the Arkansas side of the Delta in 1928, alongside his choice of their own Senator Joseph T. Robinson as running mate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That hurricane in New Orleans def helped Obama in 2012.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Rick Scott’s response to hurricanes  hitting the state might have also helped bolster him to win.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Also the Super Tuesday 2008 tornado outbreak probably had some effect I’d assume.

[Drew]

Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic was primaried out in 1979.  A major factor was disapproval of his handling of a blizzard a month earlier.

[hurricanehink]

International, but... the 2016 Colombian peace agreement referendum:

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/weekly-chart-colombias-no-vote-numbers

The northernmost department was affected by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Matthew, causing the department (which voted Yes to the proposal) to have only a 19.4% turnout. The referendum failed nationwide by a margin of 56,000 votes (out of 12 million votes cast), and the department in question has a population of 880,000.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 1927 Mississippi River floods and the Coolidge administration's lackluster response to them is generally held to have helped Al Smith in the Arkansas side of the Delta in 1928, alongside his choice of their own Senator Joseph T. Robinson as running mate.

Huh.
Some things never change...

[Skill and Chance]

Hurricane Sandy pretty clearly helped Obama in the Northeast states in the 2012 presidential election.

The botched Hurricane Katrina response pretty clearly helped Dems flip congress in 2006, and it may have even contributed to Obama's win in 2008, although it's impossible to isolate it from the multitude of other reasons Bush's approval had collapsed by that point. 

A strong hurricane response as governor in October of 2018 was quite possibly decisive for Rick Scott getting into the senate, and a strong hurricane response in 2016 nearly saved McCrory's reelection.

It's possible that Hurricane Harvey helped 2018 Dems in the Houston area.  2020 was underwhelming by comparison.

For something completely different, the extreme drought may have contributed to massive Dem overperformance in California in 2018. 


Looking forward, it's plausible that a significant severe weather event on election day would automatically lead to Dem wins in all contested races in the impacted area given how extreme the partisan split in early vs. day-of voting has become.

[longtimelurker]

The 1969 NYC snowstorm affected the mayor's race that fall.  Mayor Lindsay lost the Republican primary, and then barely won a 3-way race running on the Liberal ticket.

https://untappedcities.com/2015/02/09/today-in-nyc-history-john-lindsays-no-good-very-bad-snowstorm-of-1969/

Some folks are of the opinion that the NY Mets winning the World Series a few days before the election, putting the city - and especially Queens - in a good mood, may have caused enough folks to vote for Lindsay for him to win re-election.

He was through with the Republican Party, though, becoming a Democrat in 1971.