When a House overperformer runs for Senate, how much does he overperform in his old district?

[David Hume]

Are there any studies about this? Recent examples in competitive states that I can think of:

Sinema 2018

Ryan 2022

Demings 2022

Budd 2022

Unfortunately we don't have data in DRA for 2022 yet.

[Vosem]

Are there any studies about this? Recent examples in competitive states that I can think of:

Sinema 2018

Ryan 2022

Demings 2022

Budd 2022

Unfortunately we don't have data in DRA for 2022 yet.

It really depends; Ryan overperformed everywhere except his old seat. I think the usual pattern has been no particular overperformance (Sinema/Demings/Budd didn't really have one, although I don't even think the latter two were overperformers), but you do still occasionally get campaigns like Beto '18 (or, weirdly, Patrick Murphy '16) that do overperform meaningfully in their bases. This is less common on the GOP side, especially because the GOP nominates moderates for the Senate less frequently, but you do still see it sometimes -- Pat Toomey and Rob Portman both just retired but both come to mind. Rubio was from the state House, not the US House, but prior to 2022 when other Republicans caught up to him, and even surpassed him, he tended to do much better than the GOP baseline in Dade.

[Spectator]

It’s hard to think of isolated over performances in their old House districts. Generally people that have overperformed the baseline in their old House seats tend to overperform everywhere. Mark Kirk in 2010, Pat Toomey in 2010 and 2016, Joe Donnelly in 2012, Sinema in 2018. Maybe the last glaring example of where their overperformance made the difference is probably when John Baldacci won ME-02 while losing ME-01 in the inamfamously weird 2002 gubernatorial race.

[Oryxslayer]

This really only occurs the moment someone leaps upwards, subsequent elections see the senator become a more recognizable state brand that effects all media markets. One exception is insular communities that protect their own - like Rubia and M-D Hispanics- where the overperformance can remain constant. 

It also tends to be much more visible when a local legislator is involved and they are jumping to any congressional position. Media markets coverage means said candidates is often initially unknown except in their home turf, where they could have an intense following.