Who is more likely to survive? Brown or Tester?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more likely to survive? Sherrod Brown or Jon Tester?

[Xing]

Hard to say. A lot will depend on their opponents, especially in the case of Tester.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

[SnowLabrador]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Florida. Is. Gone. Just look at 2022.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Obviously Tester. Brown isn't DOA, but generic R would be much more electable against Brown than Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Have you see Biden Approvals 43/54, that's the same as 22 Eday polls where we lost TX and FL by double digits

[Galeel]

Brown probably bc Ohio is to the left of Montana

[President Johnson]

Brown I guess, simply because Ohio is more blue than Montana. However, in a smaller state (population wise), personality and local brand may be more important. It's a tricky question.

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Florida. Is. Gone. Just look at 2022.

I don't agree with SnowLabrador very often on predictions, but that one is 100% correct.

[jamestroll]

I would say Tester due to a local branding.

But look at a map of Ohio and a map of Montana.

Ohio at least has urban and suburban areas that may be willing to re-elect an incumbent Democrat.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I expect both to survive at this point, but I am more confident that tester will.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester, but this is far from guaranteed like this forum seems to think, and I’d say the difference is quite exaggerated on here. Much of the confidence about Tester's reelection prospects on the Democratic side (which I can confirm is not confined to this forum) is rather smug and reminiscent of the confidence in Bullock 2020 and Heitkamp 2018.

Yes, he won’t be "easy" to beat, but acting like this will be even more of an uphill battle than SD-SEN 2004 because of "retail politics", "local branding", and "identity politics" is just as silly as believing that Tester is DOA.

The comparison between Collins and Tester is also not a very compelling one.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Brown I guess, simply because Ohio is more blue than Montana. However, in a smaller state (population wise), personality and local brand may be more important. It's a tricky question.

I’d actually argue that despite MT being around 8 points more Republican than OH , given how much bigger OH is than MT , it’s still an easier climb for the democrats to win statewide there than in OH which is still one of the 7 largest states.

It’s much easier for a local independent brand to be built in a state like MT than in OH due to how much smaller it is . Also add in the fact that Tester’s likely opponent will be Zinke Or Rosandale it will be easier for him to win as Tester can run against votes they likely will make on the “fair tax” proposal .

[S019]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Florida. Is. Gone. Just look at 2022.

And Ohio isn't gone? Democrats did better in FL than OH in 2016+2020, and also did better in FL GOV 2018+FL GOV 2022 than OH GOV 2018+OH GOV 2022. Ignoring Vance (who was hilariously flawed and his comfortable win shows why Brown is close to DOA), OH was just as bad as FL for Dems in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Too soon to say with any degree of certainty, but Brown starts off with a better chance all things being equal simply b/c Ohio is a significantly less Republican state than Montana.

[SnowLabrador]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Florida. Is. Gone. Just look at 2022.

And Ohio isn't gone? Democrats did better in FL than OH in 2016+2020, and also did better in FL GOV 2018+FL GOV 2022 than OH GOV 2018+OH GOV 2022. Ignoring Vance (who was hilariously flawed and his comfortable win shows why Brown is close to DOA), OH was just as bad as FL for Dems in 2022.

Ohio is gone too, just Florida a little more so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown

Though TX and FL are more winnable than both.

Florida. Is. Gone. Just look at 2022.

And Ohio isn't gone? Democrats did better in FL than OH in 2016+2020, and also did better in FL GOV 2018+FL GOV 2022 than OH GOV 2018+OH GOV 2022. Ignoring Vance (who was hilariously flawed and his comfortable win shows why Brown is close to DOA), OH was just as bad as FL for Dems in 2022.

Ohio is gone too, just Florida a little more so.

LoL DeWine won by 25 that's how Vance won RS aren't winning OH by 25 do you know Brown win when DeWine won by 3 in 2018 wait for polls inside politics has OH, NC, GA, AZ as Battleground , WI, PA, MI, CO, VA, NV and CO as D battleground

I keep telling users wait for Emerson polls and even they had NV wrong why because blk and Latinos voted for CCM the one excellent was Johnson but Evers prevented a Veto proof R state legislature

RS IGNORE blk voted 5/6 percent of the vote not 60% like whites but can swing a battleground

That's why I have Presley, Kunce, Brown and Manchin and Beshear winning Blks are 5/6% of the vote not 60%

[MarkD]

Brown is a more well-entrenched incumbent than Tester. Brown's margins have been greater than Tester's, and Ohio has a higher Democratic floor than Montana.

[Greedo punched first]

Isn't Ohio less red than Montana?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's a tough one, but I'll say Tester. Ohio has been trending right, while Montana seems politically static. They're both red states, so for a Democrat to win statewide, it becomes a matter of individual approval/favorability, not partisanship. Per Morning Consult, Tester's net approval is +30, Brown's is +8. That, on top of Montana voters having more of a mavericky streak, I'd rather be Tester right now.

[Devils30]

Tester. Small state senators are more easily able to outrun the top of the ticket (see Collins).

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Jon Tester is in a smaller population state that's much less urban and suburban in Ohio, and I imagine that Senator Tester has already met quite a few of the voters in person, more so than Senator Brown has been able or could in a state as populated as Ohio.  That personal touch could make the difference.

Jon Tester has that John Fetterman quality that does well in a state where there's lots of working-class men that image can provide enough appeal to win.  It would also help Jon greatly if the election was mainly fought on economic issues - "Jon Tester stands up to elitist policies that only benefit the very rich", that kind of message can get him re-elected.

Both are tough races for sure.

[Pericles]

Brown-Montana is more Republican (and its split ticket behavior is clearly declining over time) and he won by more than Tester in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL there are no polls we aren't gonna know even if you keep typing the same threads all the time

[Vosem]

Brown. Tester winning absent an absolutely insane Democratic landslide would require him to out-perform Biden by more than any incumbent in 2016 or 2020 out-performed their respective presidential nominee.

I think Brown has a difficult road ahead of him, but it's a much more plausible one (eg, if you can pull off patterns similar to those Whitmer had, then in OH you're out to about a tie, and with a bluer national environment and turnout patterns perhaps a win). In 2012, Brown ran 10 points ahead of House Democrats, and in 2018, by about 11 points; in both 2020 and 2022 an equivalent performance comes out to only a pretty barebones Republican win of 0-2 points. Tester winning would be the single strongest performance in a presidential year since 2012, or indicative of a national realignment.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Look at the exit polls of the last time they ran.

2016 recalled vote
Ohio: 50-36
Montana 37-34
West Virginia 54-30

Montana (and West Virginia) had a drastically different electorate in 2018 than 2016 or 2020. The ideological breakdown of Ohio was much the same in 2018 and 2020. Montana went from 40% conservative in 2018 to 48% in 2020.

This means that Brown’s last win was more persuasion and less of a fluke than the others. In other words, Brown could win if he keeps 95% of his last coalition. Tester needs to grow his coalition in order to win again.