NV-GOV (Emerson): Sisolak +4

[wbrocks67]

Sisolak (D) 44%
Lombardo (R) 40%
Undecided 7%
Someone else 9%

Independents: Sisaolk 41, Lombardo 39
Hispanics: Sisolak 45, Lombardo 35

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2022-senator-cortez-masto-and-governor-sisolak-lead-competitive-general-election-matchups-33-of-voters-approve-of-biden%ef%bf%bc/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news all the DOOMERS expect us to lose NV

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican. 

Yeah, this is a Tossup race and remains so. Just assigning all the undecideds to the Republican is indeed incredibly lazy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican. 

Yeah, this is a Tossup race and remains so. Just assigning all the undecideds to the Republican is indeed incredibly lazy.

Quit gaslighting. You know darn well that has happened in multiple elections now.(NC Senate 2020, ME Senate 2020, need I go on?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican.  

Yeah, this is a Tossup race and remains so. Just assigning all the undecideds to the Republican is indeed incredibly lazy.

Quit gaslighting. You know darn well that has happened in multiple elections now.(NC Senate 2020, ME Senate 2020, need I go on?)

No one here was "gaslighting" until you decided to show up with your Joker mask. Sorry man.
I get you engage in doomerism, but people not doing that being gaslighters is a ludicrous claim. I do not intend to engage the substance of such ridicolous claims; they deserve as serious a response as they deserve.
Keep on comparing apples and oranges. It's a free country.
That is all.

[Person Man]

It helps Republicans that abortion is a settled issue in Nevada.

[wbrocks67]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican. 

Not just that, but the idea that we're throwing polls with the leader at +4 in a state that has historically underestimated Democrats as "Lean R" is just ridiculous

People on this forum are really just saying stuff to say stuff these days

[ajc0918]

Dobbs will save Dems in NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt was a retread candidate anyways he lost in 2018 already

[wbrocks67]

It helps Republicans that abortion is a settled issue in Nevada.

since when?

[Xing]

I’d actually expect Masto to slightly overperform Sisolak, though both races are Toss-Ups, and the only way either only ends up with 44% of the vote is a ton of third party voting, or a red wave that actually does make 2010/2014 look like a red ripple.

[MT Treasurer]

This is a swing state which generally votes in line with the national popular vote and which has been trending Republican in recent elections, so it would not take a wave that makes "2010 look like a ripple" for Cortez Masto or Sisolak to end up somewhere around 45% of the vote (say, in a 51-45 GOP victory). Your NV takes are (incredibly repetitive and baseless) meme-tier nonsense.

Not just that, but the idea that we're throwing polls with the leader at +4 in a state that has historically underestimated Democrats as "Lean R" is just ridiculous

Polls did not underestimate NV Democrats in 2020, so this is not accurate!

Besides, we’ve already established that "leader" means little to nothing compared to actual D vote share. You yourself are quick to point to vote share whenever it benefits your party, but in this case you’re (of course) drawing our attention to the margin — very disingenuous and predictable. 

People on this forum are really just saying stuff to say stuff these days

...

[Xing]

This is a swing state which generally votes in line with the national popular vote and which has been trending Republican in recent elections, so it would not take a wave that makes "2010 look like a ripple" for Cortez Masto or Sisolak to end up somewhere around 45% of the vote (say, in a 51-45 GOP victory). Your NV takes are (incredibly repetitive and baseless) meme-tier nonsense.

Not just that, but the idea that we're throwing polls with the leader at +4 in a state that has historically underestimated Democrats as "Lean R" is just ridiculous

Polls did not underestimate NV Democrats in 2020, so this is not accurate!

Besides, we’ve already established that "leader" means little to nothing compared to actual D vote share. You yourself are quick to point to vote share whenever it benefits your party, but in this case you’re (of course) drawing our attention to the margin — very disingenuous and predictable. 

People on this forum are really just saying stuff to say stuff these days

...

I’ve made the point about uniform swing many, many times. And even if we assume that it happens in NV (there’s nothing wrong or “absurd” about predicting it won’t), a R+8 result (52-44) nationally would be much, much better for Republicans in terms of actual race results than 2010 or 2014, though I really don’t see that big of a win in the cards for them.

Funny that you call my takes “nonsense and meme-tier”, then claim that I’m the one who “ridicules” others.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2010/2014 has little to do with 22 because it was 10% unemployment and Obamacare that's why you see Biden has the same Approvals as Obama and the GCB has a D plus 2 it was R plus 5 both 2010/2014 not tied that's the difference in 2010/2022, it's not the same election

If you're really a D like Xing whom overestimated Biden polls last time and had FL and NC and AZ going D why would you make an R nut map even if Rs are favored I didn't make one in 2010/2014 either

This is also the same Xing along with Icespear and Elections Guy that said Andy Beshear was gonna lose and he won

[MATTROSE94]

Yes, the percentage of the vote Sisolak and Cortez Masto will receive in the end will probably be very close to 44%.

Lean R race remains Lean R.

That's such a lazy take. Yeah polls with a lot of undecided/other voters frustrate me to but the undecideds are not all going to the challenger/Republican. 

Nevada is zooming rightward due to the Hispanic trend. 2018 Senate & Governor and 2020 President are the last time Nevada will vote Democrat for a long time imo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't moving to the right the Emerson poll shows D's winning 3/4 NV Districts and it's an Emerson poll and CCM is up 46/43