US births strongly decreasing in 2010

[Tender Branson]

Here's the chart I made from CDC data. It shows the 2010 Census Population, births in the first half of 2010, first half of 2009, the change, the change in percent and births in 2009, the 2009 birth rate, 2008 births and 2007 births:

My estimate is a total number of 3.97 Mio. births in 2010, for a birth rate of 12.8/1000 people.

That would be the lowest birth rate ever in the US and the first time since 1999 that the number of births dropped below 4 Million.

The average drop in the first half of 2010 was minus 4% in the US, with MS births almost falling by 8% compared with the first half of 2009. The only state that saw an increase was ND and also DC.

[Tender Branson]

The recession might be a reason for the decline, but I´m not really sure about it.

During the early 80s recession, the birth rate remained high at about 16/1000 people, with absolutely no decrease.

The rates for 1976-1984 were:

1976: 14.6
1977: 15.1
1978: 15.0
1979: 15.6
1980: 15.9
1981: 15.8
1982: 15.9
1983: 15.6
1984: 15.6

Birth rates then declined very rapidely in the 90s, even though the economy was in really good shape.

[phk]

The recession might be a reason for the decline, but I´m not really sure about it.

During the early 80s recession, the birth rate remained high at about 16/1000 people, with absolutely no decrease.

The rates for 1976-1984 were:

1976: 14.6
1977: 15.1
1978: 15.0
1979: 15.6
1980: 15.9
1981: 15.8
1982: 15.9
1983: 15.6
1984: 15.6

Birth rates then declined very rapidely in the 90s, even though the economy was in really good shape.

Baby Bust generation was entering their child-bearing years.

[Tender Branson]

The recession might be a reason for the decline, but I´m not really sure about it.

During the early 80s recession, the birth rate remained high at about 16/1000 people, with absolutely no decrease.

The rates for 1976-1984 were:

1976: 14.6
1977: 15.1
1978: 15.0
1979: 15.6
1980: 15.9
1981: 15.8
1982: 15.9
1983: 15.6
1984: 15.6

Birth rates then declined very rapidely in the 90s, even though the economy was in really good shape.

Baby Bust generation was entering their child-bearing years.

Yes and the women born from 1975 to 1990 are now in the child-bearing age.

The birth rate could be declining now because these women were already considerably fewer than the ones from the 1950-60 years.

Take a look at this table for comparison:

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2010/tables/10s0078.xls

[Redalgo]

It is probably not the only factor at work here, but demographic transition is certainly a beautiful thing.

[ilikeverin]

The recession might be a reason for the decline, but I´m not really sure about it.

During the early 80s recession, the birth rate remained high at about 16/1000 people, with absolutely no decrease.

Birth rates also echo boomed during the early 90s recession (see also: me, about 3/4 of this forum ).

[Ban my account ffs!]

I just found this thread.  As a little anecdotal evidence.. I think births will rise in 2011 over 2010 by quite a bit.  I know an OB at the local hospital who has said they've had to set up extra birthing rooms because the 4 they had was not enough... they've been having 5-6 births per day with some days reaching 10.  That's compared to 2-3 births per day in the mid 90s.  Back then they only needed 2 birthing rooms.

My friend just had a baby boy this past Tuesday... she went in there at midnight and she got the last available birthing room... 3 people came in after her and couldn't get birthing rooms until they rushed the new mothers into general hospital rooms.

This is obviously not representative at all... but still.

Also, Tender... referring to the early 80s recession:  Relative birth rates did decline... it's just that the largest cohort of the baby boom were entering their prime child bearing years (20s).  Births rose sharply from 1977-1980 and then leveled off until the mid 80s.  Only after 1984 did births begin to rise.. and only in 1989 did they reach 4 million again after being below that for 25 years.

Total fertility rates rose from about 2.2 in the early 1930s to 2.72 in 1943.. leveled off for two years, then boomed again rising rapidly to 3.77 in 1957.  TFR fell slowly then until 1962 (though births remained about the same) when it began to fall rapidly, reaching 2.46 by 1968.  There was a two year boomlet in 1969 and 1970... for unknown reasons overall, but part of which could be because of the draft and the ramp up in Vietnam.  TFR plummeted again from 1970-1976, bottoming out at 1.74 in 1976.  Then rates rose to 1.84 in 1980, slacked off a bit, then resumed rising in 1984 peaking at 2.08 in 1990.  Rates fell slightly to 1.97 in the late 90s before rising again to 2.12 in 2007, the highest rate since 1971.  Between 2007 and 2009, rates fell to 2.01... almost certainly because of the recession.

The low rates in the first half of 2010 were likely because the economy was in freefall in early-mid 2009, when those babies were made.  Since mid-2009, there has been some improvement.. especially beginning in mid 2010.

[freepcrusher]

Total fertility rates rose from about 2.2 in the early 1930s to 2.72 in 1943.. leveled off for two years, then boomed again rising rapidly to 3.77 in 1957.  TFR fell slowly then until 1962 (though births remained about the same) when it began to fall rapidly, reaching 2.46 by 1968.  There was a two year boomlet in 1969 and 1970... for unknown reasons overall, but part of which could be because of the draft and the ramp up in Vietnam.  TFR plummeted again from 1970-1976, bottoming out at 1.74 in 1976. 

That's interesting how the birth rate could basically be cut in half in only twenty years. I'm not sure what caused it to happen. I think it may be due to better availability of contraceptives and that it was becoming more expensive to have children so people decided not to have as many.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Total fertility rates rose from about 2.2 in the early 1930s to 2.72 in 1943.. leveled off for two years, then boomed again rising rapidly to 3.77 in 1957.  TFR fell slowly then until 1962 (though births remained about the same) when it began to fall rapidly, reaching 2.46 by 1968.  There was a two year boomlet in 1969 and 1970... for unknown reasons overall, but part of which could be because of the draft and the ramp up in Vietnam.  TFR plummeted again from 1970-1976, bottoming out at 1.74 in 1976. 

That's interesting how the birth rate could basically be cut in half in only twenty years. I'm not sure what caused it to happen. I think it may be due to better availability of contraceptives and that it was becoming more expensive to have children so people decided not to have as many.

All of the trends, which had been towards later marrying, fewer people marrying, and families becoming smaller and smaller (the fertility rate in the early 30s was only slightly higher than it is now)... completely reversed beginning in 1939.  People began marrying earlier, more people were marrying in general, and women began having more children.

One theory is that the GI Generation, while spoiled is children, were thrust into great responsibility when the depression hit and WWII came along.  They shunned extravagant material wealth, and instead desired normal life with lots of children.

With the baby boomers, they grew up in a prosperous economy that soured as they entered early adulthood.  Valuing security and material wealth, they put off having kids until they could build a nest egg.  Putting off having kids is always risky as women obviously have time limits... and so, on average, women simply had fewer children.

That's why you had/have this huge craze with fertility drugs in the 90s and 2000s.. aging boomers wanted more kids now that they had the financial security... but they were having trouble actually having them.  In any case, birth rates did not drop nearly as much as predicted in the 90s because of younger baby boomers having more children.

As far as the 60s go... there was that transition away from young mothers who had grown up in tough times, plus the legalization of birth control (in 1960 I believe)... and the lengthening of adolescence among boomers compared to earlier generations led to the decline.  In the early 70s.. the souring economy and then abortion legalization hit birth rates.

Had women generally kept having around 2 children or so beginning in their early-mid 20s... births would have bottomed out in the late 60s and begun to rise, peaking in the early-mid 80s.. instead.. everything got shifted back about 7 or 8 years.