Ari Fleischer to run for the House?

[InsideTheBeltway]

This article from Human Events claims that former WH press secretary Ari Fleischer may be interested in running for the House in 2008.  Based in Westchester County, he could be interested in running against incoming freshman Rep. John Hall (D) in the 19th district. 

"...fellow New Yorkers who know him well bet that he will make the House race in ’08. As Larry Casey, onetime top aide to former New York Republican Rep. George Wortley and a canny political operative, told me: 'Ari is the natural and best candidate for Congress from Westchester and, if he chooses to run, the obvious Republican candidate.' " 

Full article here  (look about 2/3rds of the way down):

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=18516

[Joe Biden 2020]

He wouldn't be a bad candidate, but I think he may face an uphill struggle.  He is a Republican born in Vermont and living in New York and associated with the early Bush administration, so that is three strikes against him. 

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

[JSojourner]

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

And Senator Collins is no shoo-in for re-election if she does run.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...but despite all that, there is no reason why this district won't elect a Republican again (with "again" being defined as the next decade or so).

Demographically it really, really doesn't fit with the other districts that fell in November, btw. Kelly probably deserves some kind of award for managing to lose.

[RBH]

Couldn't Ari get done in by the footage of him as the Press Secretary?

Basically associating him with a lot of Bush policy and such.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

...but despite all that, there is no reason why this district won't elect a Republican again (with "again" being defined as the next decade or so).

Demographically it really, really doesn't fit with the other districts that fell in November, btw. Kelly probably deserves some kind of award for managing to lose.

It was most likely the gay marriage amendment.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I doubt it. He's very closely associated with the Bush administration in an area where Bush is very unpopular.

[TheresNoMoney]

I doubt it. He's very closely associated with the Bush administration in an area where Bush is very unpopular.

^^^^^^^^^^

[Erc]

He could stand a chance in '08 (and I hope he does, as I really don't like John Hall).

That said, Hall ran a damned good campaign this year (as evidenced by his win--of course, he also got a few very good lucky breaks, but you can't blame him for that), so he'd be tough to beat.

In any event, it would be a very interesting and high-profile race.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I doubt it. He's very closely associated with the Bush administration in an area where Bush is very unpopular.

That may be so, but being associated with the Bush administration is not mean an automatic loss.  Its just highly risky.  Its the same as being associated with the Clinton adminsitration.

Also, remember, Ari has been out of the Press Room for two years now.  In 2003 and 2004, the war in Iraq was still going fairly decent, and just beginning to deteriorate in the summer of 2004.  Since Ari bailed, he can't (or it would be unfair for him to) be associated with the Iraq War of 2005 and 2006.

His main problem, as I see it, is originally being from whats likely the second or third most liberal state in the country (Vermont), behind Massachusetts and possibly Rhode Island.

[TheresNoMoney]

That may be so, but being associated with the Bush administration is not mean an automatic loss.  Its just highly risky.  Its the same as being associated with the Clinton adminsitration.

Actually, it's not the same at all. Clinton was an extremely popular president who went out of office with about a 60% approval rating, and Bush is the least popular president since Watergate-era Nixon.

[HardRCafé]

And Senator Collins is no shoo-in for re-election if she does run.

Yes she is.

[Gabu]

And Senator Collins is no shoo-in for re-election if she does run.

Yes she is.

Well, if there's anything that Allen's loss in Virginia has taught us, it's that you should never, ever declare that a seemingly safe incumbent definitely will win if the challenger is actually semi-serious (i.e., not a joke candidate like Jean Hay Bright).

That said, however, Collins strikes me as much less prone to stupid gaffes, so yeah, she'll probably win.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

So says the Oklahoma Democrat

[Gabu]

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

So says the Oklahoma Democrat

Actually, Oklahoma is majority Democrat in party registration, oddly enough, at 51% Democrat to 38% Republican.  The Oklahoma Senate has an equal number of Democrats and Republicans in it.  Roughly half of statewide office holders are Democrats.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

So says the Oklahoma Democrat

Actually, Oklahoma is majority Democrat in party registration, oddly enough, at 51% Democrat to 38% Republican.  The Oklahoma Senate has an equal number of Democrats and Republicans in it.  Roughly half of statewide office holders are Democrats.

That is true, though the Democrats hold closer to 2/3 of statewide constitutional offices, but, yes, we do have more Democrat voters than Republican voters, and an unprecedented tied Senate and an extremely narrow Republican majority in the House.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Lets not forget that Northeast Republicans are a dying breed with the main exceptions now being Maine's two Senators, which once both ladies retire will probably go Democrat, as well.

So says the Oklahoma Democrat

Actually, Oklahoma is majority Democrat in party registration, oddly enough, at 51% Democrat to 38% Republican.  The Oklahoma Senate has an equal number of Democrats and Republicans in it.  Roughly half of statewide office holders are Democrats.

..which was the case in Texas just a decade or so ago.  Oklahoma is always a few years behind Texas