Mexico 2006

[MODU]

It's interesting to watch a "2000 election" replaying in another country, just to see how it is handled.  Of course, I never expected Gore to set up a secondary government like Lopez is threatening to do.  I wonder how long Lopez's popularity will last once Calderon takes over officially.

[WMS]

Once again I ask the Obradoristas to justify their candidate's actions. I know Boss Tweed doesn't back it, but what about the rest of you lefties, eh? I'm thinking of Sarnstrom in particular

[ag]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

[© tweed]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

[ag]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

Aside from everything else, would you really like the Republican party to become dominant and the Democrats to desintegrate?

In July Lopez Obrador demolished all opposition in his home state of Tabasco, getting, I think, 58% of the vote, holding another homestate boy, PRI's Madrazo, to under 40 (w/ only 4% voting for Calderon). At the time all the polls showed huge leads for PRD's candidate in the gobernatorial polls scheduled for October.  By the time PRD took down the street blocade in Mexico City in late August, the polls in Tabasco were showing the race tightening, so Lopez Obrador decamped full time to Tabasco to campaign, bringing all the PRD heavy artillery w/him.  As a result of this all-out offensive, the PRD candidate tanked and PRI won the gobernatorial election w/ just over 10% to spare, with PRI also recovering a number of municipalities and legislative seats they had lost in 2003 (they really did spectacular in the state capital Villahermosa, were they got the landslide of almost the olden-days proportions; PRD is now concentrated in rural areas, where they control municipal governments).

The latest polls show that even though PRD has managed to pursuade a sizeable and increasing minority   that there was fraud in the election (41% of the electorate, agains 46% thinking there was no fraud), 71% oppose their behavior in Congress, 74% oppose other civil disobedience actions and  well over 80% recognize Calderon as the sole legal and legitimate president of Mexico (quoting from memory, the polls are by El Universal and Cronica, as quoted today in El Pais - I am in Spain right now). Fortunately for PRD, there aren't any other immediately fothcoming elections in states where they are normally strong.  Otherwise, it seems the biggest beneficiary of their behavior would have been the PRI.

[WMS]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

You actually think the PRD is right in how they are acting?

[© tweed]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

You actually think the PRD is right in how they are acting?

No.  But if they really feel that the election was stolen (I don't think it was but it's irrelevant to the point I'm making) they're doing the right thing by fighting for it, something US Democrats didn't do in 2000 when our election was stolen.

[Colin]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

You actually think the PRD is right in how they are acting?

No.  But if they really feel that the election was stolen (I don't think it was but it's irrelevant to the point I'm making) they're doing the right thing by fighting for it, something US Democrats didn't do in 2000 when our election was stolen.

But it obviously the Mexican election wasn't stolen. Mexico probably has a system that is more fair and less prone to fraud than the American system. Their electoral commission is non-partisan and completely seperate from the government. If you could say anything it would be the help in the campaign that he got from Fox could constitute breaking Mexican electoral law, but seriously having a horribly unpopular President campaign for you probably wont help you win.

[ag]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

You actually think the PRD is right in how they are acting?

No.  But if they really feel that the election was stolen (I don't think it was but it's irrelevant to the point I'm making) they're doing the right thing by fighting for it, something US Democrats didn't do in 2000 when our election was stolen.

But it obviously the Mexican election wasn't stolen. Mexico probably has a system that is more fair and less prone to fraud than the American system. Their electoral commission is non-partisan and completely seperate from the government. If you could say anything it would be the help in the campaign that he got from Fox could constitute breaking Mexican electoral law, but seriously having a horribly unpopular President campaign for you probably wont help you win.

I would agree on most of the last post, but one thing has to be corrected: Fox was never horribly unpopular. He wasn't a superstar on approval ratings, but he was ok - rarely in the negatives, in decent positives most of the time.  And even many of those who had negative view of his abilities generally had a sympathetic view of the guy himself. If anybody was unpopular it was his wife, not him.

In addition, Mexicans have a certain respect towards the "majesty of the President" (I am not making the phraze up - it is literal translation from Spanish).  This respect meant that even if Fox's own statements didn't affect much, Lopez Obrador's reaction to them did: when Lopez publicly told the President to "shut up" (the famous "callate chachalaca" eruption), the proportion of Mexicans planning to vote for him dived by 10% points overnight, instantaneously erasing his lead in the polls.  If you wish, that was the "macaca moment" of that election.  Now, you could say that Lopez should have heeded his own advice and kept his own mouth shut (and you'd be right   ) - but he did loose his cool in responding to Fox, which might not have happened if Fox had staid silent.

Now, anything Fox said would be considered super-tame by the standards of US campaigning (Bush, probably, does more campaigning on a casual day in spring than Fox did in total).  In Mexico a seating president is legally not allowed to utter a word in support or against any candidate, and the same prohibition applies to all other groups or individuals, with the sole exception of the politicial parties themselves (and even political parties' own attacks face official censorship, less they be found "unfair"). This is, probably, the single biggest error in the local electoral design, which almost guarantees that pretty much every election will be run with a violation of the law.  Still, there is a large gap between a few ill-considered statements by Fox and "election stealing".

[WMS]

The final report.

Minutes ago, Felipe Calderon was sworn in as the new President of Mexico.  Despite the attempt of the PRD faction in Congress to disrupt the ceremony (first they tried to take over the presiding section of the chamber - the last 72 hours saw a near continuous fight for it - and then tried to block of the entrances to the Chamber to prevent quorum), it did happen within the constitutional and legal bounds: in the joint section of the House and the Senate, in the plenary meeting room of the House, in the presence of the legislative quorum, with the House Speaker Zermeño (PAN) receiving the presidential sash from the outgoing president Fox and putting it on Calderon.  During the entire 3-minute long ceremony the riot continued, with members only stopping their shouts while the national anthem was played.

Too bad the american left didn't fight for Gore like this in 2000...

You actually think the PRD is right in how they are acting?

No.  But if they really feel that the election was stolen (I don't think it was but it's irrelevant to the point I'm making) they're doing the right thing by fighting for it, something US Democrats didn't do in 2000 when our election was stolen.

But it obviously the Mexican election wasn't stolen. Mexico probably has a system that is more fair and less prone to fraud than the American system. Their electoral commission is non-partisan and completely seperate from the government. If you could say anything it would be the help in the campaign that he got from Fox could constitute breaking Mexican electoral law, but seriously having a horribly unpopular President campaign for you probably wont help you win.

I would agree on most of the last post, but one thing has to be corrected: Fox was never horribly unpopular. He wasn't a superstar on approval ratings, but he was ok - rarely in the negatives, in decent positives most of the time.  And even many of those who had negative view of his abilities generally had a sympathetic view of the guy himself. If anybody was unpopular it was his wife, not him.

In addition, Mexicans have a certain respect towards the "majesty of the President" (I am not making the phraze up - it is literal translation from Spanish).  This respect meant that even if Fox's own statements didn't affect much, Lopez Obrador's reaction to them did: when Lopez publicly told the President to "shut up" (the famous "callate chachalaca" eruption), the proportion of Mexicans planning to vote for him dived by 10% points overnight, instantaneously erasing his lead in the polls.  If you wish, that was the "macaca moment" of that election.  Now, you could say that Lopez should have heeded his own advice and kept his own mouth shut (and you'd be right   ) - but he did loose his cool in responding to Fox, which might not have happened if Fox had staid silent.

Now, anything Fox said would be considered super-tame by the standards of US campaigning (Bush, probably, does more campaigning on a casual day in spring than Fox did in total).  In Mexico a seating president is legally not allowed to utter a word in support or against any candidate, and the same prohibition applies to all other groups or individuals, with the sole exception of the politicial parties themselves (and even political parties' own attacks face official censorship, less they be found "unfair"). This is, probably, the single biggest error in the local electoral design, which almost guarantees that pretty much every election will be run with a violation of the law.  Still, there is a large gap between a few ill-considered statements by Fox and "election stealing".

Thanks for the reply Tweed, and...err, Colin and ag pretty much nailed it. The Mexican Presidency wasn't stolen. Which is something of a record, actually...

[© tweed]

Thanks for the reply Tweed, and...err, Colin and ag pretty much nailed it. The Mexican Presidency wasn't stolen. Which is something of a record, actually...

I never claimed that it was...

[WMS]

Thanks for the reply Tweed, and...err, Colin and ag pretty much nailed it. The Mexican Presidency wasn't stolen. Which is something of a record, actually...

I never claimed that it was...

You were clearly expressing approval for the actions of the PRD. Those actions are based on the premise that the Mexican election was stolen. If you don't think the election was stolen then why do you think the PRD is doing something worthy of approval?

[© tweed]

Thanks for the reply Tweed, and...err, Colin and ag pretty much nailed it. The Mexican Presidency wasn't stolen. Which is something of a record, actually...

I never claimed that it was...

You were clearly expressing approval for the actions of the PRD. Those actions are based on the premise that the Mexican election was stolen. If you don't think the election was stolen then why do you think the PRD is doing something worthy of approval?

What I said was that if the PRD really believes that the election was stolen and isn't bullsh**tting then they're doing the right thing.  I tend to belive that Calderon legitimately won.

[ag]

Some news about the PRD and Calderon:

Freshly elected Chiapas Governor Sabines (PRD) has publically spoken yesterday against those who are wishing that Calderon's failure. "There are those who wish that bad things happen to the President, for reasons improper and distant from the interests of Mexicans"  he said (without naming names) on the day Calderon starts his first presidential visit to Chiapas.

Michoacan Governor Cardenas (PRD) has asked for federal troups to be sent into his state to combat the drug-related crime. The troups have been duly sent.

Zacatecas Governor Garcia (PRD) attnded Calderon's inaugural events, including a special dinner for selected governors.

In other news, during his Chiapas trip Calderon has announced a new guest-worker program for Guatemalan citizens and promised to fight those who mistreat the migrants.

[WMS]

Thanks for the reply Tweed, and...err, Colin and ag pretty much nailed it. The Mexican Presidency wasn't stolen. Which is something of a record, actually...

I never claimed that it was...

You were clearly expressing approval for the actions of the PRD. Those actions are based on the premise that the Mexican election was stolen. If you don't think the election was stolen then why do you think the PRD is doing something worthy of approval?

What I said was that if the PRD really believes that the election was stolen and isn't bullsh**tting then they're doing the right thing.  I tend to belive that Calderon legitimately won.

Oh, yeah, this thread.

OK, now that you've clarified your position I can see where you are coming from. I, however, don't think the Obradoristas really think they won the election by now and that they tried to use pressure to win a race they actually lost.

And thanks for the Mexico updates ag.