Which opposing party Senate victories would you rather have?

[Senator Spiral]

Thought this might generate some worthwhile discourse.

[Alben Barkley]

Fetterman=Ryan more or less whereas Oz>Vance.

Plus if Ryan somehow wins it means that Ohio is still way more competitive than we thought.

So I go with Ryan/Oz.

[Aurelius]

Fetterman/Vance. I don't trust Dr. Oz.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oz>Vance and Ryan> Fetterman so obviously I’d go Ryan/Oz here . Also from pure political sense it would be far easier to pick up OH in 28 than PA so if you are a Republican Ryan/Oz is the correct choice in that sense and if you are a democrat Vance/Fetterman is the correct choice

[S019]

Fetterman would at least give us incumbency in the 2028 race, if Ryan won it'd be an obvious rental and a complete replay of ND/IN 2018 in 2028, where Democrats sunk millions into the seat only to suffer sizable defeat.

[Schiff for Senate]

Plus if Ryan somehow wins it means that Ohio is still way more competitive than we thought.

Or it's also possible Vance has a big scandal or something like that that causes depressed GOP turnout and leads to a narrow Ryan upset.

[Schiff for Senate]

Ryan/Oz.

Fetterman/Vance. I don't trust Dr. Oz.

May I ask why? I mean, I guess I get why you don't trust Oz. But how is Vance a more trustworthy character? He's had a total about face over the last few years on Trump. His opinion of the man has literally turned 180 degrees. Very evidently and obviously, he's bootlicking for Trump and parroting the Big Lie in order to win this race. He has no principles and his 'views' change completely based on what's politically expedient or convenient. It's disgusting. He literally deleted his anti-Trump Tweets from a few years back to suck up to the man. It's pathetic and shows how spineless, unprincipled and desperate the guy is.

I don't understand why you consider Vance a more trustworthy character than Oz. From what I've seen and what I can tell, Oz has been much more consistent and is much more trustworthy than Vance (though I could be wrong I guess).

[Schiff for Senate]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Ryan/Oz. A Democrat winning statewide would be great for the longterm in Ohio, and Oz is slightly less glue-huffy than Vance.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

[Schiff for Senate]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

I'm not. I'm speculating that that's why a lot of people would prefer their party win PA over OH, because they think OH will go red anyway in 2028. I actually went Ryan/Oz. Look at these posts, for instance, particularly the latter:

Also from pure political sense it would be far easier to pick up OH in 28 than PA so if you are a Republican Ryan/Oz is the correct choice in that sense and if you are a democrat Vance/Fetterman is the correct choice

Fetterman would at least give us incumbency in the 2028 race, if Ryan won it'd be an obvious rental and a complete replay of ND/IN 2018 in 2028, where Democrats sunk millions into the seat only to suffer sizable defeat.

[S019]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

There is no indication that things will get better for Democrats, Ohio is a terrible state for the current Democratic coalition. How do you foresee them getting the numbers in the Northeast or the I-90 corridor to win again? Literally the only bright spots for Ohio Democrats are in Columbus and Cincinnati, but that won’t matter if Appalachian and Mahoning hicks continue to move away from the party. This is like insisting that Republicans could win Virginia in 2028, the trajectory is clear and Democrats would be well-advised to spend their money elsewhere.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Rather have Ryan.  We can defeat Oz in 2028, I feel like Vance will stay a senator for decades if he wins.  Also Vance is a puppet for Peter Thiel, while Oz is just a clown.  So Vance sucks a lot more.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

Even if Ohio became a swing state again , it would mean PA would be Lean D so it would make more sense for democrats to want incumbency in PA rather than OH

[Politician]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

There is no indication that things will get better for Democrats, Ohio is a terrible state for the current Democratic coalition. How do you foresee them getting the numbers in the Northeast or the I-90 corridor to win again? Literally the only bright spots for Ohio Democrats are in Columbus and Cincinnati, but that won’t matter if Appalachian and Mahoning hicks continue to move away from the party. This is like insisting that Republicans could win Virginia in 2028, the trajectory is clear and Democrats would be well-advised to spend their money elsewhere.

Republicans are more likely to win VA than Democrats are to win OH. In fact, they are more likely to win NJ, DE, and IL as well by that point.

[Aurelius]

Ryan/Oz.

Fetterman/Vance. I don't trust Dr. Oz.

May I ask why? I mean, I guess I get why you don't trust Oz. But how is Vance a more trustworthy character? He's had a total about face over the last few years on Trump. His opinion of the man has literally turned 180 degrees. Very evidently and obviously, he's bootlicking for Trump and parroting the Big Lie in order to win this race. He has no principles and his 'views' change completely based on what's politically expedient or convenient. It's disgusting. He literally deleted his anti-Trump Tweets from a few years back to suck up to the man. It's pathetic and shows how spineless, unprincipled and desperate the guy is.

I don't understand why you consider Vance a more trustworthy character than Oz. From what I've seen and what I can tell, Oz has been much more consistent and is much more trustworthy than Vance (though I could be wrong I guess).

Because I have much more faith in Vance than Oz to reliably cast votes in ways I like. Even if Vance's #populist shtick is a farce, his flip flopping has always been within the Republican tent - not so true of Oz. Not even touching on Oz's TV career here.

[Del Tachi]

Ryan/Oz

Vance looks greasy. 

[Schiff for Senate]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

There is no indication that things will get better for Democrats, Ohio is a terrible state for the current Democratic coalition. How do you foresee them getting the numbers in the Northeast or the I-90 corridor to win again? Literally the only bright spots for Ohio Democrats are in Columbus and Cincinnati, but that won’t matter if Appalachian and Mahoning hicks continue to move away from the party. This is like insisting that Republicans could win Virginia in 2028, the trajectory is clear and Democrats would be well-advised to spend their money elsewhere.

Republicans are more likely to win VA than Democrats are to win OH. In fact, they are more likely to win NJ, DE, and IL as well by that point.

Utter nonsense. Presidential races are not gubernatorial races. Youngkin won by 2 points in an off-year gubernatorial election where he focused on local issues and Terry McAuliffe ran a horrible campaign. Heck, if Youngkin ran for president, I doubt even he'd win his home state. Presidentially, VA is as safe for the Democrats as OH is for the GOP.

And OH is most certainly less safe for the GOP than DE, IL and NJ are for the Democrats. I'm not even going to try to elaborate on that or provide statistics when it's so plainly evident and obvious.

[President Johnson]

Vance/Fetterman.

Both Ryan and Fetterman are FFs, but the latter probably has a higher chance of surviving the next election.

[Politician]

Interesting the both parties would prefer their party win in PA rather than OH. I guess because PA is still more of a swing state and incumbency advantage does matter. And both parties expect OH to go red in 2028 regardless of who wins in 2022 (in real life, it's obviously Vance, but it's interesting that people think even if Ryan somehow won in 2022, he'd quite likely be DOA in 2028). Still, hard to disagree with that logic. I voted Ryan/Oz already, but since in practice I support Democrats (at least over Republicans), I suppose Vance/Fetterman may have made more sense from a tactical standpoint. Still, Fetterman = Ryan to me more or less (they'll vote the same way, won't they?) but Oz > Vance. And who knows, maybe if Ryan can win in a year like 2022, he can hold on in 2028?

Don't act like you know where Ohio, or any state for that matter, will 100% be a whole six years from now. I say this as someone who has experienced my home state go from being the dictionary definition of a swing state to solid Trump in a similar timespan. Ohio is trending R, but no trend is permanent, and we still have two whole presidential election cycles to go before Ohioans go to vote in 2028.

There is no indication that things will get better for Democrats, Ohio is a terrible state for the current Democratic coalition. How do you foresee them getting the numbers in the Northeast or the I-90 corridor to win again? Literally the only bright spots for Ohio Democrats are in Columbus and Cincinnati, but that won’t matter if Appalachian and Mahoning hicks continue to move away from the party. This is like insisting that Republicans could win Virginia in 2028, the trajectory is clear and Democrats would be well-advised to spend their money elsewhere.

Republicans are more likely to win VA than Democrats are to win OH. In fact, they are more likely to win NJ, DE, and IL as well by that point.

Utter nonsense. Presidential races are not gubernatorial races. Youngkin won by 2 points in an off-year gubernatorial election where he focused on local issues and Terry McAuliffe ran a horrible campaign. Heck, if Youngkin ran for president, I doubt even he'd win his home state. Presidentially, VA is as safe for the Democrats as OH is for the GOP.

And OH is most certainly less safe for the GOP than DE, IL and NJ are for the Democrats. I'm not even going to try to elaborate on that or provide statistics when it's so plainly evident and obvious.

I'm taking into account the trends. OH trends are just flat-out awful for Democrats, who still have lots of room to fall in rural/working class areas, and where the only countertrends in the Cincinnati and Columbus metros are nowhere near enough to offset those.

Republican gains with Hispanics would make IL and NJ more competitive and Dems still have room to fall in rural IL. DE's margin was inflated by Biden, it only voted for Clinton by 11.As for VA, the state is actually shedding college-educated voters and Democrats are dependent largely on minorities.

By 2028, there's nothing unreasonable about what I said.