If Biden did not run again, who would challenge Harris in a primary?

[EJ24]

Who would challenge the sitting VP and would they fail or be successful?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Anyone who would join the race if Harris didn't run would join the race if she did. She's a very weak candidate and unlike Clinton who cleared the field (mostly) years in advance, she's not viewed as a lock for the nomination. She's barely making it past 20% in primary polls lol.

[TML]

If the Democratic establishment backs Harris as expected, she would be the favorite. Any successful challenger would have to possess exceptional political instincts (similar to Obama in 2008 against Hillary). Sure, I would love to see a progressive primary challenger, but I have yet to identify any prominent progressive politicians currently in office or actively campaigning for office with political instincts as good as those of Obama.

[Schiff for Senate]

Hopefully Roy Cooper. I want to see NC go blue again.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hopefully Roy Cooper. I want to see NC go blue again.

Roy Cooper isn't going to carry North Carolina in a Presidential race.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If the Democratic establishment backs Harris as expected, she would be the favorite. Any successful challenger would have to possess exceptional political instincts (similar to Obama in 2008 against Hillary). Sure, I would love to see a progressive primary challenger, but I have yet to identify any prominent progressive politicians currently in office or actively campaigning for office with political instincts as good as those of Obama.

I don't think Harris will get the backing of the establishment. The establishment sees Harris as a weak candidate and that's why other mainstream dems are exploring runs behind-the-scenes, which they wouldn't if the establishment was fully behind Harris.

[Schiff for Senate]

Hopefully Roy Cooper. I want to see NC go blue again.

Roy Cooper isn't going to carry North Carolina in a Presidential race.

Uh, yes he is. Unless it's a very bad night for Democrats. Biden lost the state quite narrowly in 2020, and simultaneously, Cooper was reelected by a much bigger, more comfortable margin. He outran Biden by close to 6 points and would only need to oupterform him by 1.5% in 2024 PREZ to win. I'd say in a Cooper vs DeathSantis matchup, NC is at least tilt Cooper.

[Agonized-Statism]

Someone to her right, probably Tulsi Gabbard. The same progressives who fell in lockstep behind Biden in 2020 unfortunately wouldn't challenge the incumbent so long as they have the specter of Trump to point to- at most, they'll just stay home.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hopefully Roy Cooper. I want to see NC go blue again.

Roy Cooper isn't going to carry North Carolina in a Presidential race.

Uh, yes he is. Unless it's a very bad night for Democrats. Biden lost the state quite narrowly in 2020, and simultaneously, Cooper was reelected by a much bigger, more comfortable margin. He outran Biden by close to 6 points and would only need to oupterform him by 1.5% in 2024 PREZ to win. I'd say in a Cooper vs DeathSantis matchup, NC is at least tilt Cooper.

I think Cooper would lose North Carolina by less than half a percent in most scenarios in a Presidential race (basically anything that doesn't involve Republicans nominating Marjorie Taylor Greene or Paul Gosar, for example).

[NewYorkExpress]

Anyways, the most likely people to challenge Harris are Senators/Governor's who are either term limited are heavily favored to lose in 2024, like Roy Cooper, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, and possibly Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey Jr.

[brucejoel99]

If the Democratic establishment backs Harris as expected, she would be the favorite. Any successful challenger would have to possess exceptional political instincts (similar to Obama in 2008 against Hillary). Sure, I would love to see a progressive primary challenger, but I have yet to identify any prominent progressive politicians currently in office or actively campaigning for office with political instincts as good as those of Obama.

I don't think Harris will get the backing of the establishment. The establishment sees Harris as a weak candidate and that's why other mainstream dems are exploring runs behind-the-scenes, which they wouldn't if the establishment was fully behind Harris.

I think you underestimate Kamala's influence here at your own peril: for one, she's just not getting left behind by Black voters in the first post-Biden primary, & an establishment that likely isn't rather too keen on pissing off the community that's perhaps most critical to its political success understands that since, in spite of what #ElectionTwitter might have you believe, her approvals within the party are 25 points(!) better than what Hillary's were when she began her last campaign for the presidency with what may as well have been a literal coronation by the establishment in April 2015. Not to mention, she's clearly Biden's obvious choice to replace him (which makes sense, given that he's likely the American who takes the vice presidency least lightly in the entire country), & is still loved by the Black community to a good-enough extent that anybody running against her won't even be able to compete with her for their support. I seem to recall that being a candidacy-killing problem for all of the candidates who didn't win the Democratic nomination in 2020, incl. Kamala herself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pete Buttigieg is DONE, he is at 8 percent to Harris 28 percent there will be a calling for NEWSOM but he has DONE ZERO for the HOMELESS IN CALI and outside of Cali is known as the Amnesty Gov, Harris is definitely the nominee when Biden hangs it up the question is, what Eric Adams is gonna do, we haven't had a Black Prez from CA outside of Reagan and Nixon and in this Environment neither one would get elected, we have had Roosevelt's from NY and Prez Can Buren

[LostInOhio]

If the Democratic establishment backs Harris as expected, she would be the favorite. Any successful challenger would have to possess exceptional political instincts (similar to Obama in 2008 against Hillary). Sure, I would love to see a progressive primary challenger, but I have yet to identify any prominent progressive politicians currently in office or actively campaigning for office with political instincts as good as those of Obama.

I don't think Harris will get the backing of the establishment. The establishment sees Harris as a weak candidate and that's why other mainstream dems are exploring runs behind-the-scenes, which they wouldn't if the establishment was fully behind Harris.

I think you underestimate Kamala's influence here at your own peril: for one, she's just not getting left behind by Black voters in the first post-Biden primary, & an establishment that likely isn't rather too keen on pissing off the community that's perhaps most critical to its political success understands that since, in spite of what #ElectionTwitter might have you believe, her approvals within the party are 25 points(!) better than what Hillary's were when she began her last campaign for the presidency with what may as well have been a literal coronation by the establishment in April 2015. Not to mention, she's clearly Biden's obvious choice to replace him (which makes sense, given that he's likely the American who takes the vice presidency least lightly in the entire country), & is still loved by the Black community to a good-enough extent that anybody running against her won't even be able to compete with her for their support. I seem to recall that being a candidacy-killing problem for all of the candidates who didn't win the Democratic nomination in 2020, incl. Kamala herself.

Yes I think some online political junkies are going to be in for quite a rude awakening whenever she runs for the presidency. She will clear even higher than Clinton 2016 primary margins, probably over 60% of the vote with 90% of support from Black voters. She was basically unknown in 2020 and is now a sitting VP, the first woman and Black woman to do so. This kind of identity politics and reverence for status/credentials is exceptionally iimportant to Democratic primary voters, the bulk of whom are themselves older Black women and men.

This is not to say she’d be a strong GE candidate but anyone who thinks Roy Cooper or Bernie freaking Sanders (for God’s sakes) is going to come within a stone’s toss of her is displaying a massive misunderstanding of the character of the Democratic electorate.

[Schiff for Senate]

Hopefully Roy Cooper. I want to see NC go blue again.

Roy Cooper isn't going to carry North Carolina in a Presidential race.

Uh, yes he is. Unless it's a very bad night for Democrats. Biden lost the state quite narrowly in 2020, and simultaneously, Cooper was reelected by a much bigger, more comfortable margin. He outran Biden by close to 6 points and would only need to oupterform him by 1.5% in 2024 PREZ to win. I'd say in a Cooper vs DeathSantis matchup, NC is at least tilt Cooper.

I think Cooper would lose North Carolina by less than half a percent in most scenarios in a Presidential race (basically anything that doesn't involve Republicans nominating Marjorie Taylor Greene or Paul Gosar, for example).

Cooper's not going to do better by Biden by just a point. He won reelection by a good 4.5% margin and outperformed Biden by nearly 6. He only needs to oupterform Biden by under 1.5% (and underperform his 2020 gubernatorial performance by as much as 4%) in order to win. Unless it's a bad night for Democrats, I think Cooper is favoured to win NC in 2024 if he's the Democratic candidate. In fact, I'm confident that in a Cooper vs DeathSantis matchup in 2024, NC won't go Republican unless GA and AZ do too, and NC will certainly vote to the left of both those states in such a scenario.

Note that this is probably all a moot point though since I doubt Cooper runs and wins the nomination  . Still, my real hope is to see NC go blue at the presidential level again, and honestly, if it's a good night for the Democrats, even having Cooper as VP (who knows?) could be enough.

[TDAS04]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

[Mr. Morden]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

On that last point, Warren's "denial" of 2024 presidential interest last year was interesting, seemingly conditioning her not running on the fact that Biden would run again:

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

[VBM]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

Warren disgraced herself last time she tried running for president. I doubt she would have the courage to run again after how embarrassing her last attempt was

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

Warren isn't running for Prez anymore, she didn't win hardly any primaries she said herself that 2016 was better for her than 2020

We need a young Prez not Biden, we have so many candidates outside  of Pete Buttigieg

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Eric Adams or Pete Buttigieg

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

On that last point, Warren's "denial" of 2024 presidential interest last year was interesting, seemingly conditioning her not running on the fact that Biden would run again:

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

Confirmed by olawakandi

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elizabeth-warren-rules-potential-2024-152140279.html


It's a 303/235 map anyways, it doesn't matter if she runs we had enough elderly Prez, Biden is the last one, Trump won't get it in 24 either he is very unpopular in blue states that's why Reuters have it 45750 Biden Approvals not 33% near 50% with 4% unemployment

Adding on to brucejoel99's point, the Echelon primary polls consistently show that Harris is leading with Hispanic Dems. The Asian Boomers who get picked up in their polls aren't particularly opposed to her either.

[Cassandra]

Elizabeth Warren would be logical.  The left would want to challenge Harris.  Warren will be 75, but that doesn't seem so old in politics anymore.

Of course, she says she's seeking reelection to the Senate, and Biden appears to be seeking reelection as President.

Warren disgraced herself last time she tried running for president. I doubt she would have the courage to run again after how embarrassing her last attempt was

She has no shame, so that shouldn't be an issue.