Republicans/Conservatives who voted for Biden; how do they go in 2022

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm talking about people who traditionally lean R but voted for Biden mainly because they couldn't swallow Trump's rhetoric and thought he was dangerous for our country. Some may have voted downballot for Rs.

On the one hand, one might expect them to revert back to Rs in 2022. Trump is not directly on the ballot anywhere, and it's hard to see anyone who has a conservative ideology voting for Democrats in this sort of environment. They also may want to send a message to Biden after he wasn't the president they may have hoped for.

On the flip side, most Rs nationally are running on some sort of Trump-aligned campaign, embracing the big lie and spreading his dangerous rhetoric. Would someone who thought Trump was a danger to Democracy really vote for someone like Doug Mastriano?

They also could of course split ballot, vote 3rd party, or not vote at all.

What do you think happens to these voters in 2022?

[Xing]

All 3 of them will vote Republican.

[Gracile]

Probably overwhelmingly Republican. This was even presaged a bit in the House and Senate results in 2020 where GOP candidates in suburban communities with some GOP heritage outran Trump - showing that this chunk of the electorate has maintained their Republican partisan identity at the congressional level.

[MargieCat]

If they voted for downticket repbulicans in 2020, they probably vote republican.

In some cases, they might vote for democrats if the GOP nominee is a complete disaster, such as is the case with Mastriano, Lake, Masters, Walker, etc..

[ProgressiveModerate]

If they voted for downticket repbulicans in 2020, they probably vote republican.

In some cases, they might vote for democrats if the GOP nominee is a complete disaster, such as is the case with Mastriano, Lake, Masters, Walker, etc..

Except at this point half the GOP candidates for a lot of these offices fall into these categories, especially in competitive states.

I do think there's a difference though between someone who's just running a poor campaign (Oz) vs someone who may really turn off these voters (Walker) and it's important to make that distinction.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nationwide probably around 50/50. Usually you would expect them to go back to R by a majority, though I'm not sure since the GOP has nominated several horrible candidates in important races. So my assumption is just they will roughly split in half, with relatively low turnout.

That said, it's just a gut feeling/wild guess, not backed up by any hard data.

[Ferguson97]

60 R/40 D.

I think people underestimate the amount of Romney-Clinton-Biden voters who have had such a negative reaction to Trump and the overall shift of the GOP since 2015 to the point that a lot of them haven't voted Republican at all since 2014, even downballot. Many of them have willed themselves to move to the left on a number of issues as well.

But the 60% that will vote Republican are truly just anti-Trump, have continued to vote Republican downballot, would vote against Trump again in 2024, but would pick any other Republican over Biden.

[Schiff for Senate]

Republicans win a majority of them.

[Cyrusman]

60 R/40 D.

I think people underestimate the amount of Romney-Clinton-Biden voters who have had such a negative reaction to Trump and the overall shift of the GOP since 2015 to the point that a lot of them haven't voted Republican at all since 2014, even downballot. Many of them have willed themselves to move to the left on a number of issues as well.

But the 60% that will vote Republican are truly just anti-Trump, have continued to vote Republican downballot, would vote against Trump again in 2024, but would pick any other Republican over Biden.

Would you honestly consider those people republicans still cause I don’t and they shouldn’t  be even if they are too lazy to change their registration. If someone hasn’t voting Republican in 3 soon to be 4 election cycles and the last time they voted for GOP candidate was 2014 then that’s not a Republican. That’s an independent or now moderate Democrat

[here2view]

I have a friend who voted for Trump in 2016, Republican for CT-GOV in 2018, but then Biden in 2020. She is voting for Lamont for Governor after voting against him four years ago.

[It’s so Joever]

Ask Forsythvoter.

[Ferguson97]

60 R/40 D.

I think people underestimate the amount of Romney-Clinton-Biden voters who have had such a negative reaction to Trump and the overall shift of the GOP since 2015 to the point that a lot of them haven't voted Republican at all since 2014, even downballot. Many of them have willed themselves to move to the left on a number of issues as well.

But the 60% that will vote Republican are truly just anti-Trump, have continued to vote Republican downballot, would vote against Trump again in 2024, but would pick any other Republican over Biden.

Would you honestly consider those people republicans still cause I don’t and they shouldn’t  be even if they are too lazy to change their registration. If someone hasn’t voting Republican in 3 soon to be 4 election cycles and the last time they voted for GOP candidate was 2014 then that’s not a Republican. That’s an independent or now moderate Democrat

It depends on how they'd vote in a presidential election without Trump on the ballot.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

The only republicans that vote for Biden are The Lincoln Project type people, I expect they continue voting for the democrats or not voting, this voters are not coming back to GOP soon

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Probably overwhelmingly Republican. This was even presaged a bit in the House and Senate results in 2020 where GOP candidates in suburban communities with some GOP heritage outran Trump - showing that this chunk of the electorate has maintained their Republican partisan identity at the congressional level.

I think this is the right answer.  Ancestral partisanship is a helluva thing. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

The only republicans that vote for Biden are The Lincoln Project type people, I expect they continue voting for the democrats or not voting, this voters are not coming back to GOP soon

Lincoln Project types voted straight D in 2020 but down ballot results did show there were some Biden/GOP down ballot voters

[OSR stands with Israel]

Probably overwhelmingly Republican. This was even presaged a bit in the House and Senate results in 2020 where GOP candidates in suburban communities with some GOP heritage outran Trump - showing that this chunk of the electorate has maintained their Republican partisan identity at the congressional level.

I think this is the right answer.  Ancestral partisanship is a helluva thing. 

Funny thing is pretty much all the Clinton/Trump voters I know in 2020 still voted D down ballot while the Republicans who supported Biden voted R down ballot.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Probably overwhelmingly Republican. This was even presaged a bit in the House and Senate results in 2020 where GOP candidates in suburban communities with some GOP heritage outran Trump - showing that this chunk of the electorate has maintained their Republican partisan identity at the congressional level.

I think this is the right answer.  Ancestral partisanship is a helluva thing.  

...Republicans who supported Biden voted R down ballot.

Those people sound like they're REALLY cool and have amazing hair.  

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

The only republicans that vote for Biden are The Lincoln Project type people, I expect they continue voting for the democrats or not voting, this voters are not coming back to GOP soon

Lincoln Project types voted straight D in 2020 but down ballot results did show there were some Biden/GOP down ballot voters

Yeah but it's a small minority, I don't think there is a big enough group to swing an election, maybe if the margin is very close

[Pericles]

The Trump-Biden voters probably split about evenly and Democrats win most but not all Romney-Clinton-Biden voters. Republicans won a small majority of Obama-Trump voters in 2018. For people who voted Republican down-ballot in 2020, a minority of those groups, I don't see why they won't do it again in 2022 though maybe a few break the habit because it takes them a few years to become Democrats. People who not only voted Republican down-ballot in 2020 but are actually Republicans through and through who just liked Biden more than Trump will overwhelmingly vote Republican.

[Torie]

60 R/40 D.

I think people underestimate the amount of Romney-Clinton-Biden voters who have had such a negative reaction to Trump and the overall shift of the GOP since 2015 to the point that a lot of them haven't voted Republican at all since 2014, even downballot. Many of them have willed themselves to move to the left on a number of issues as well.

But the 60% that will vote Republican are truly just anti-Trump, have continued to vote Republican downballot, would vote against Trump again in 2024, but would pick any other Republican over Biden.

I fit pretty well into the bolded bit, but I tend to doubt that cohort of voters is that significant. What might be a bit more significant is that those voters are ceased using their money and influence to try to tame the GOP's nationalist and populist impulses. In the meantime the concept of an influential "problem solvers" conference has not really jelled. It is difficult for me to perceive where this is all going. It's also worldwide, since echoes of the US political shifts reverberate in Europe and other places. The technology changes have unsettled the public square.