New Pew poll

[Whacker77]

Pew issued it's last poll of the election season this afternoon.  It shows the same type of movement that the Washington Post polled showed.  In it's newest numbers, the Democrat lead is now 4 points.  In their last poll, the Democrat lead was 11 points.  Pew also found that Republicans have made significant inroads with Independent voters.  A new Gallup poll will be out tonight and I suspect it will show whether Pew and the Washington Post are correct.  Just as a reminder, Pew last presidential poll of 2004 accurately predicted the 51-48 national victory for Bush.

[AuH2O]

Gallup has been wacky for a while now. I wouldn't put too much stock in it either way. Pew, on the other hand, is quality.

[NHPolitico]

It would really be stunning if the Democrats can't capitalize on GOP errors this cycle.

[Whacker77]

Gallup's numbers have galluped around this year, but I think they have earned a great amount of respect for their national polls.  I will be interested to see what they have to say.  I will be far less interested in thier state Senate polls though.  They did a poor job of state polling in 2004.

[agcatter]

Democrats will make substancial gains.  However, the liberal wet dream constantly echoed by their mainstream pals like Mathews and Obermann of a massive blowout was never going to happen.

I'm a realist.  Dems plus 20 in the house (223D - 212R) and 4 seats in the Senate (51R - 49D).  Not a great result for Republicans but far from the category 5 stuff Charlie Kook keeps grinding out.  The NYT and Washington Post keep cranking out the Dem talking points.  I have a newsflash for you.  Most out in middle America give a hoot what the NYT, CNN, and MSNBC think.  People aren't nearly as impressed with what Maureen Dowd writes as she is.

The Inside the Beltway lib echo chamber talk to each other constantly.  They have no idea about the country as a whole.

Cook and Rothenberg (sp) are going to look about as credible as Zogby did the day after the 04 election.

Dems will have a small majority in the House and Republicans will have a swall majority in the Senate.  Not nearly the earthquake the MSM wants you to believe will happen.

[okstate]

If this election ends up being a lot closer like that then Pew and WaPo/ABC are going to look like geniuses while Time, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, and the rest will be fools.

[AuH2O]

Well their last poll seemed favorable to the GOP and the one before that was too pro-Dem, compared to other polls. Their luster has definitely been in decline over the past couple cycles, they had some botched national polls in 2004, too.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup's numbers have galluped around this year...

You are too much!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's happening is that Republicans are suddenly much more likely to vote than before. It would help if they had been informed enough to be paying attention all along.

The fact is, we are dealing with the same country that gave 62 million votes to Bush in 2004. Not exactly geniuses.

[agcatter]

Time and Newsweek are going to have egg all over their faces.  Couldn't happen to a better bunch of lefty elitist snobs.  

Get ready for a bunch of editorials in Newsweek describing how stupid the American people are.

[Eraserhead]

Time and Newsweek are going to have egg all over their faces.  Couldn't happen to a better bunch of lefty elitist snobs.  

Get ready for a bunch of editorials in Newsweek describing how stupid the American people are.

Talk about jumping the gun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could you all calm down please?

[agcatter]

Ha. No, I'd say "jumping the gun" has been what the Dems and their pals in the MSM have been doing nonstop for the last three months. 

Chris Mathews has been giddy for months now - talk about spiking the ball on the 10 yard line. 

[The Vorlon]

This is indeed interesting.

We have WAPO/ABC showing a signifigant tighening.

Now we have PEW (which actually is very good but with a very minor structural pull to the democratic side)

The Mason Dixon's all show (collectively) a tighening as well.

One poll is, well, one poll... two you take a look at, and three you can't ignore...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On the other hand we have Time, Newsweek, CBS/NYTimes all showing a good size democratic wave.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The First three are better pollsters than the last three, so I guess it all boils down to who's turnout model you believe.

Most americans want the GOP out, if that turns out to be the same thing as most voters, may be another issue....

[Sam Spade]

Too many people on this forum are trying to rush in front of each other to be the next mypalfish.  Hold on people!

I would not be confident or over-confident about anything right now.  That being said, it is quite evident that historically Pew and WP have been "better" polls than Time/Newsweek/CBS.  Does that mean it'll hold true in this election?  Who knows.

[agcatter]

I would like to see the partisan breakdown of Time, Newsweek, and CBS/NYT.

I don't trust those guys.

[J. J.]

I'm a realist.  Dems plus 20 in the house (223D - 212R) and 4 seats in the Senate (51R - 49D).  Not a great result for Republicans but far from the category 5 stuff Charlie Kook keeps grinding out.  The NYT and Washington Post keep cranking out the Dem talking points.  I have a newsflash for you.  Most out in middle America give a hoot what the NYT, CNN, and MSNBC think.  People aren't nearly as impressed with what Maureen Dowd writes as she is.

I agree with the prediction, but I think this due to tightening in race.

In the Senate, a mere two weeks ago, this was the situation:

"Definitely" Dem pickups:  PA, OH, RI, MT

Toss ups:  MO, TN, VA.

Basically the Dems had to win 2 out of 3 tossups to gain the Senate.

Today:

"Definitely" Pickups:  PA, OH

Toss ups:  MO, VA, MT, RI

The Dems have to win 4 out of 4 tossups to gain the Senate.

The only read Dem shift was in NJ.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Toss ups:  MO, VA, MT, RI

I'm not worried about RI.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for reference, some popular vote numbers from previous House elections:

2004: R 49.2%, D 46.6%
1994: R 52%, D 45.2%
1992: R 45.3%, D 50.6%
1982: R 43.2%, D 55%
1974: R 40.5%, D 57%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, what are the changes from the previous poll for these new polls? (if that made any sense... I know what I mean...)

[Sam Spade]

Pew - Old numbers in parentheses

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=295

Generic ballot:
LV
Democrats 47 (50)
Republicans 43 (39)

RV
Democrats 48 (49)
Republicans 40 (38)

WAPO - Old numbers in parentheses

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110406.htm

Generic ballot:
LV
Democrats 51 (55)
Republicans 45 (41)

RV
Democrats 53 (54)
Republicans 43 (41)