Rate Pennsylvania

[ElectionsGuy]

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Ratings



Predictions



Republicans: 23 (? % of population)
Democrats: 13 (? % of population)

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Tilt D. Shapiro is a decently strong candidate, but Pennsylvania is a swing state and this is a Republican-leaning environment. The race will be close either way.

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-up/Tilt R, very close to Lean R - I don’t really buy Shapiro being a uniquely strong candidate or this race being far more winnable for Democrats than MI and WI. Unless Shapiro faces an exceptionally poor Republican campaign (certainly possible, but I don’t expect someone like Mastriano to win the R nomination), this should end up close to/no more than 1-2 points to the left of PA-SEN. It’s also worth noting that there are no signs that Wolf's approval has been higher than Gretchen Whitmer's (in the polling I’ve seen, their numbers have been very similar), so many of the factors that may propel MI Republicans to victory (besides the very favorable national environment) will benefit the GOP in PA as well.

[Ancestral Republican]

Likely D. People don't understand how bad the Pennsylvania GOP bench is. These guys are morally bankrupt and couldn't find their ass with both hands and a compass. Scott Perry? Give me a f***ing break.

[wbrocks67]

Toss-up/Tilt R, very close to Lean R - I don’t really buy Shapiro being a uniquely strong candidate or this race being far more winnable for Democrats than MI and WI. Unless Shapiro faces an exceptionally poor Republican campaign (certainly possible, but I don’t expect someone like Mastriano to win the R nomination), this should end up close to/no more than 1-2 points to the left of PA-SEN. It’s also worth noting that there are no signs that Wolf's approval has been higher than Gretchen Whitmer's (in the polling I’ve seen, their numbers have been very similar), so many of the factors that may propel MI Republicans to victory (besides the very favorable national environment) will benefit the GOP in PA as well.

Doesn't matter if you buy it or not, it bares out in the results. He consistently has run ahead of the top of the ticket, especially last year when he won by 4 when Biden won by 1 (and the two other statewide D candidates lost)

I'd agree with Tilt D. It's a bad environment for Ds but Shapiro is Dems best candidate and one of the best statewide candidates period in PA. Not to mention, the GOP's bench is just objectively atrocious from start to finish.

[Senator Spark]

Shapiro is likely PA's next Governor. The GOP bench is very weak and extremely underwhelming in terms of fundraising.

[Not Me, Us]

This race is tilt R. Shapiro is a good candidate, and basically all of his potential opponents are duds. However, if the environment doesn't improve, which there's really no reason to believe it will, Rs start out as the favorite. Shifts to lean D if Mastriano is the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is tilt R. Shapiro is a good candidate, and basically all of his potential opponents are duds. However, if the environment doesn't improve, which there's really no reason to believe it will, Rs start out as the favorite. Shifts to lean D if Mastriano is the nominee.

Sure, and FL is more Likely Crist than Lean it's Tilt D, Rs aren't sweeping everything

[Red Wall]

Open seat race on a lean R state on a R year = lean to likely R

[Xing]

Tilt R. Not impossible Democrats manage to hold this, even on a bad night, but the environment could be enough to do Shapiro in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. Not impossible Democrats manage to hold this, even on a bad night, but the environment could be enough to do Shapiro in.

Yeah and most of the Early vote goes D in early October not November and PA is a D state

[Suburbia]

Tossup, but can change to Lean D by summer