Rate Arizona

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote and edit votes in previous threads

GA MI

Ratings



Predictions



Republicans: 22 (26.7 % of population)
Democrats: 13 (? % of population)

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R.

[Penguino Beenie]

Tilt R

[Roll Roons]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

I get that you really hate Trump, but do maybe think there are things slightly more important to the average voter than who Trump endorses or what's said by these candidates on Twitter?

Trump himself almost won Arizona. But now somebody who's a "Trumpist" is supposed to do as bad or worse than him in a much more favorable environment? Or maybe you think the environment won't be more favorable, I don't know.

[Roll Roons]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

I get that you really hate Trump, but do maybe think there are things slightly more important to the average voter than who Trump endorses or what's said by these candidates on Twitter?

Trump himself almost won Arizona. But now somebody who's a "Trumpist" is supposed to do as bad or worse than him in a much more favorable environment? Or maybe you think the environment won't be more favorable, I don't know.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1486160939460136961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

She also claimed that election administrators should be locked up. What a great candidate.

My point is that for most people, the 2020 election is not a salient issue anymore. And going on about it doesn't help in a state with a lot of swing voters.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

I get that you really hate Trump, but do maybe think there are things slightly more important to the average voter than who Trump endorses or what's said by these candidates on Twitter?

Trump himself almost won Arizona. But now somebody who's a "Trumpist" is supposed to do as bad or worse than him in a much more favorable environment? Or maybe you think the environment won't be more favorable, I don't know.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1486160939460136961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

What an amazing candidate.

Thanks for proving my point. Yes, that's totally ridiculous and fake news. How many people care or know about what's going on with her Twitter page? For how many people is election denialism their make or break issue to their vote?

Can you actually engage or no?

[Roll Roons]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

I get that you really hate Trump, but do maybe think there are things slightly more important to the average voter than who Trump endorses or what's said by these candidates on Twitter?

Trump himself almost won Arizona. But now somebody who's a "Trumpist" is supposed to do as bad or worse than him in a much more favorable environment? Or maybe you think the environment won't be more favorable, I don't know.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1486160939460136961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

What an amazing candidate.

Thanks for proving my point. Yes, that's totally ridiculous and fake news. How many people care or know about what's going on with her Twitter page? For how many people is election denialism their make or break issue to their vote?

Can you actually engage or no?

My point is that for most people, the 2020 election is not a salient issue anymore. And going on about it doesn't help in a state with a lot of swing voters.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a race where the identity of the Republican nominee could make a huge difference.

I'll say Tilt R because it seems more likely than not that someone other than Lake will win the primary. But if she does, I think she'd be an underdog.

I get that you really hate Trump, but do maybe think there are things slightly more important to the average voter than who Trump endorses or what's said by these candidates on Twitter?

Trump himself almost won Arizona. But now somebody who's a "Trumpist" is supposed to do as bad or worse than him in a much more favorable environment? Or maybe you think the environment won't be more favorable, I don't know.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1486160939460136961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

What an amazing candidate.

Thanks for proving my point. Yes, that's totally ridiculous and fake news. How many people care or know about what's going on with her Twitter page? For how many people is election denialism their make or break issue to their vote?

Can you actually engage or no?

My point is that for most people, the 2020 election is not a salient issue anymore. And going on about it doesn't help in a state with a lot of swing voters.

I would agree with that. But rather I think that's why it's very unlikely to be a big game-changer. I just don't see why, controlling for other factors (like campaign quality and state-level factors) Lake wouldn't be favored to win while Mr election conspiracies himself (and let's be clear, he was crying fraud for months before the election too) got within 0.5% - unless, the political environment is somehow worse or as bad for Republicans as it was in 2020.

[TWTown]

Somewhere between Tilt R and Lean R. It's a state that Biden narrowly won and we're heading into an election with a favorable enviroment for the Republicans. Also, the Republicans won the Arizona HOR vote by 4% or so which makes me suspect there'll be a consquential amount of 2020 Biden voters in Arizona who vote for the Republican candidate.

[xavier110]

Somewhere between Tilt R and Lean R. It's a state that Biden narrowly won and we're heading into an election with a favorable enviroment for the Republicans. Also, the Republicans won the Arizona HOR vote by 4% or so which makes me suspect there'll be a consquential amount of 2020 Biden voters in Arizona who vote for the Republican candidate.

This is a good take.

There’s a few factors in play:

1. Despite winning in 2018, Hobbs is NOT a good general election candidate and basically has just doubled down on shrill identity politics and election integrity issues. The latter is an OK issue for her, since moderates she needs to win agree with her on the subject, but the former is a black hole of doom for her candidacy. She’s especially vulnerable there after the discrimination lawsuit fiasco.

2. Lake is a bona fide nut job. I doubt she moderates her tone much if she does win the primary. How does that affect the general? Who knows… it’ll be the true test of these so-called moderates who allegedly hate Trump and voted for Biden but keep voting for GOP for other races. Not sure how these people get up and tie their shoes in the morning, but it is what it is… if they still vote for Lake, then I give up. There is some weird disconnect where these voters hate GOP on several/most issues and aren’t as right wing as our state officials, but still vote for them, unless they’re abhorrent people personally (and even then they stomach them sometimes). You could read them the text of GOP bills in the legislature that would like mandate church attendance or legalize shooting gays, and these people still wouldn’t believe it. Trump, for whatever reason, struck fear in their confused souls, and when their crap becomes realer, like the audit, they disapprove.

3. Education. If the Ds had any common sense, this entire election would be about funding education. It is a landslide winning issue for them, and the GOP has gone nuclear to obliterate education funding, even finding as many loopholes as possible to torpedo 2020’s winning ballot prop 208. That plus some delicate appeals for common sense / raising the Cyber Ninja audit would be a lethal messaging combo for the segments they need to win statewide (D leaners and orphaned, educated McCain/Flake Rs).

There is a path for Ds…. I just don’t trust them to execute. At the moment, the race definitely favors Rs, but enough factors are still up in the air to push this toward tilt/tossup or lean in the months ahead.

[TWTown]

Somewhere between Tilt R and Lean R. It's a state that Biden narrowly won and we're heading into an election with a favorable enviroment for the Republicans. Also, the Republicans won the Arizona HOR vote by 4% or so which makes me suspect there'll be a consquential amount of 2020 Biden voters in Arizona who vote for the Republican candidate.

This is a good take.

There’s a few factors in play:

1. Despite winning in 2018, Hobbs is NOT a good general election candidate and basically has just doubled down on shrill identity politics and election integrity issues. The latter is an OK issue for her, since moderates she needs to win agree with her on the subject, but the former is a black hole of doom for her candidacy. She’s especially vulnerable there after the discrimination lawsuit fiasco.

2. Lake is a bona fide nut job. I doubt she moderates her tone much if she does win the primary. How does that affect the general? Who knows… it’ll be the true test of these so-called moderates who allegedly hate Trump and voted for Biden but keep voting for GOP for other races. Not sure how these people get up and tie their shoes in the morning, but it is what it is… if they still vote for Lake, then I give up

3. Education. If the Ds had any common sense, this entire election would be about funding education. It is a landslide winning issue for them, and the GOP has gone nuclear to obliterate education funding, even finding as many loopholes as possible to torpedo 2020’s winning ballot prop 208. That plus some delicate appeals for common sense / raising the Cyber Ninja audit would be a lethal messaging combo for the segments they need to win statewide (D leaners and orphaned, educated McCain/Flake Rs).

There is a path for Ds…. I just don’t trust them to execute.

Thanks for the reply, I actually didn't know that much about Hobbs and the discrimination lawsuit. I don't know what to think about Lake, she does seem to be an adament Trumpist and she certainly seems to think that the election was stolen. I don't think she'll moderate, she could have made this primary easier by running a more moderate campaign but she chose to double down on her rhetoric. This election is one that I think would have been way easier for Democrats to hold if they had been able to win in 2018, not only for the incumbency advantage but also to have something to run on. I agree that there is a path for the Democrats but I feel that with the current setup, it'll end up being a referendum on President Joe Biden rather then a referendum on what the state parties have done.

[dw93]

Somewhere between tilt R and tilt D (in other words a pure toss up)

[Utah Neolib]

Salmon is gaining in the polls, and there is a very good chance Lake won’t be the nominee. Lean R (closer to a tilt) with Salmon, Tilt D with Lake.

[Xing]

Lean R, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. I think Republicans do a point or two better here than in the Senate race, so it's very hard to see Democrats winning.

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KariLake/status/1493060638079275014

Yeah, I think I’ve been vindicated in my opinion of Lake. I genuinely think she would be an underdog if she gets the nomination.

[Gracile]

Lean R, but close to Likely R. The environment is not on the Democrats' side to pick this seat up.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, with a result very similar to the Senate race. I get that AZ and PA are this cycle's shiny "candidate quality matters" objects, but it will take more than Republicans inviting Mike Lindell as a guest speaker to a random rally (something I would venture to say no swing voter will probably base their vote on) for Democrats to suddenly be favored in this race. It’s certainly possible Lake underperforms generic R a little (but for different reasons than that), but it’s hard to argue with a straight face that the state that elected Jan Brewer by double digits will only settle for "moderate" Republicans and despises "outspoken" conservatives or "Trumpists." Most of the reasons brought up to support the claim that Lake is "unelectable" are fairly similar to the arguments put forward to support the theory that Ron Johnson will "underperform" generic R and amount to little more than "candidate xyz is just too extremist" (a charge leveled against virtually any Republican candidate nowadays). I also don’t think her being a relatively well-known TV news journalist/outsider will hurt her all that much...

Unless she really makes the 2020 election or her support for Trump the centerpiece of her campaign, I don’t think she’ll lose the general in this environment.

[President Johnson]

I'm being gracious to the Democrats and say Tilt Republican with Lake as the nominee. Otherwise, it's Lean. Hobbs is definitely a good candidate, though the environment she's running in not that great.

[Calthrina950]

Lean R. It's not yet a certainty that Lake will be the Republican nominee, and even she would probably hold a slight advantage in this environment.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lean R with or without Lake (who is the likely nominee)

[Red Wall]

Lean R

[Hope For A New Era]

Lean R for now. Candidates might make a difference, but right now, nine months out, Lean R is the safe bet.