NH-01 and NH-02 - Univ. of NH - Bass (R) down eight points; Bradley (R) up 5

[okstate]

Bass 37
Hodes 45

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/trk110206.pdf

Bradley 47
Shea-Porter 42

[TheresNoMoney]

Paul Hodes up by eight points!!

How you like them apples, Keystone Phil?

[TheresNoMoney]

OKState, I would also change the title of this thread to include NH-02.

[Sam Spade]

In my effort to tell you exactly what's going on, the basic crosstabs of this poll indicate no real difference in the partisan percentage numbers as in comparison to the UNH's last poll, they indicate a much greater number of Democrats responding to the poll than Republicans (and possibly voting), to the tune of about 10%-15% greater.

If this happens, this type of result will happen.

[okstate]

Well a poll showing Bass down eight points certainly explains the more than one million dollars the DCCC put into the district recently.

I think what happened is that the Dems (and the GOP) kind of ignored the districts for a bit, and then when they realized what was suddenly happening the Dems jumped on it. The ads may also have hurt Bass's numbers even more.

[okstate]

And I forgot to add that a poll today showed Governor Lynch winning by over 50 points.

That's going to provide some huge coattails for Hodes and for Shea-Porter.

[TheresNoMoney]

NH-02 is a Democratic leaning district (Kerry won by 5%) and will only get more blue in the future. I've felt all along that Hodes could win this race if they ran a strong campaign and had the money.

[Defarge]

I have faith now that Paul Hodes will win Congress

[TheresNoMoney]

We're gonna make sure Paul wins on Tuesday.

[Keystone Phil]

How you like them apples, Keystone Phil?

Don't count the votes before they've been cast...

[Adlai Stevenson]

It is amazing the speed with which races come from nowhere.  Bass has represented this district for a while and beat Hodes 58%-38% in 2004.  The fact that he is lagging behind now is extraordinary. 

[WalterMitty]

bass is one of my favorite reps.  itll be a real shame if he loses.

[TheresNoMoney]

It is amazing the speed with which races come from nowhere.  Bass has represented this district for a while and beat Hodes 58%-38% in 2004.  The fact that he is lagging behind now is extraordinary. 

This is a fairly Democratic district, and you shouldn't be surprised.

2004 was an aberration. Hodes got in the race very late, had no money, and the media ignored the race completely.

This year, there is no presidential or Senate race, there is an ultra-popular Democratic governor at the top of the ticket, and it's a very anti-Republican year. All conditions favorable to the chances of a Hodes win. It also helps that Hodes has raised a bunch of money and run a fairly strong campaign this time around.