Which gubernatorial race is more likely to flip?

[Xing]

I've seen these two races mentioned several times in other threads, so I thought I'd make a poll. I'd definitely say ME-GOV, which I think is a Toss-Up, whereas Democrats are favored (though far from certain) to win NM-GOV.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

ME. I don't think the GOP is ready to win statewide in NM just yet even in favorable conditions.

[MT Treasurer]

I’d (cautiously) agree that it’s ME. While both states "trended" Democratic in 2020 (NM only barely, though), NM's trend was a little more notable considering that Democrats collapsed in the RGV/South Texas on the same night and NM Republicans did make serious efforts to court Hispanic and Native American voters (whereas it’s easier to argue that Biden's unusually lopsided margins in New England will be very hard to sustain). There is also recent precedent for ME (not so much for NM) trending strongly to the right (2014 & 2016) as well as more 'demographic certainty' about the potential for additional GOP gains in ME as opposed to NM. Moreover, Mills barely received a majority in a D wave year, whereas Lujan Grisham won by 14 points (57-43), and it’s not like she’s been less "partisan" or more popular than Lujan Grisham.

While LePage might be "polarizing," he still would have won reelection even with RCV in 2014 (back when the state was more D than it is today), so I don’t think he’ll underperform generic R by a lot.

None of this is to say that Republicans can’t or won’t make substantial gains in NM (or that NM couldn’t vote to the right of ME, for that matter), but there’s a little more uncertainty in that state as far as R-friendly trends are concerned (which could admittedly also benefit the GOP if the gains among rural/small-town Hispanics in particular are larger than expected).

[Figueira]

Maine, unfortunately. It would be incredibly embarrassing if LePage ends up winning again.

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely ME. I actually expect this to be one of the closest gubernatorial contests.

[Chips]

Maine. though New Mexico could definitely be in play as well.