Spread between elctoral votes

[Fritz]

I pick option 2

[ATFFL]

I'm going with 3, I see some real seperation opening up.

[The Vorlon]

I'll take Door #5 3

[MODU]

I'd go with option 2, just to be pessimistic.  I don't think it will be as close as it was last election, dispite how the media is trying to hype it as a 2000 repeat.

[Lunar]

I'll take Door #5

But you're predicting a 294-244 Kerry win.

[© tweed]

Last option

[ilikeverin]

I'll take Door #1.

[Fritz]

Last option

Really, Boss?  I mean, I know you think Kerry's going to lose....but by that much??

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Last option

Really, Boss?  I mean, I know you think Kerry's going to lose....but by that much??

on his prediction map he actually had Kerry losing Illinois, a state Bush has pretty much already conceded. I don't see how someone could be THAT pessimistic.

[??????????]

Last option. Bush sweeps the midwest with the exception of Iowa and Illinois. 348

[Fritz]

*sigh*
these poor misguided Republicans who think my state is going to Bush...
not happening.

[Fritz]

If you really think Bush is going to sweep the midwest, why would you exclude Iowa?  Most say he has a better chance there than in Minnesota.

[??????????]

If you really think Bush is going to sweep the midwest, why would you exclude Iowa?  Most say he has a better chance there than in Minnesota.

The primary effect. It seems Kerry has strong support in Iowa.

[© tweed]

on his prediction map he actually had Kerry losing Illinois, a state Bush has pretty much already conceded. I don't see how someone could be THAT pessimistic.

I am assuming bin Laden will be caught or 'caught' by the election.  Bush would then get about 55%.

[The Vorlon]

I'll take Door #5

But you're predicting a 294-244 Kerry win.

I'll take Door #5 3

[zorkpolitics]

6th choice.

Despite the fact that Bush and Kerry have been within 3% of each other since March in the Rassumssen daily polls, I actually think the election will not be close.

If the jobs continue to grow and Iraq improves after the hand off, then Bush wins easily with >320EV.

On the other hand, if Iraq spirals out of contol and casualties increase significantly while the economy sputters then Kerry wins with >320 EV.

[© tweed]

6th choice.

Despite the fact that Bush and Kerry have been within 3% of each other since March in the Rassumssen daily polls, I actually think the election will not be close.

If the jobs continue to grow and Iraq improves after the hand off, then Bush wins easily with >320EV.

On the other hand, if Iraq spirals out of contol and casualties increase significantly while the economy sputters then Kerry wins with >320 EV

But what if things stay as they are?

320 EV's aren't a lock

[cwelsch]

I said the first choice but the second isn't horrible.  I think it will come down to one, two or three states.  This plays into the Badnarik strategy anyway, because the Troika has him going for a spoiler effect; if he can tip in the balance in Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida or all three then he gets credit as the spoiler.  Since the Libertarians successfully pursued spoiler strategies in 1998, 2000 and especially in 2002 in states across the country, this is a very viable.

Nader is infamous for spoiling against Gore.  Imagine if the Libertarians successfully spoiled the election and threw out a bad incumbent, they'd get all that spoiler coverage, and most importantly they'd got a lot of attention for 2008.  Spoiler attention is better than nothing.

[??????????]

I said the first choice but the second isn't horrible.  I think it will come down to one, two or three states.  This plays into the Badnarik strategy anyway, because the Troika has him going for a spoiler effect; if he can tip in the balance in Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida or all three then he gets credit as the spoiler.  Since the Libertarians successfully pursued spoiler strategies in 1998, 2000 and especially in 2002 in states across the country, this is a very viable.

Nader is infamous for spoiling against Gore.  Imagine if the Libertarians successfully spoiled the election and threw out a bad incumbent, they'd get all that spoiler coverage, and most importantly they'd got a lot of attention for 2008.  Spoiler attention is better than nothing.

So you'd sacrifice your beliefs to put a man in office who holds very little of your beliefs?

[Lunar]

People voting Libertarian hate them both.  Bush is closer economically but very far off regarding the deficit and spending, and light years off regarding civil rights and social issues.  Kerry is light years off regarding those economic issues but is fairly close on the civil issues.  Either way the Libertarians win and lose.

Because the GOP looks to keep both houses, they might evne prefer to have Kerry just to make it difficult to pass anything through the government like it was under Clinton.  Libertarians blame this conflict for the growth in the 1990s.

[muon2]

Put me down for 300-309. Like Carter/Ford in '76 there will be fluctuations that will move states back and forth. Enough will swing one way or the other on election day to create some separation, but not a landslide.

[Nym90]

If you really think Bush is going to sweep the midwest, why would you exclude Iowa?  Most say he has a better chance there than in Minnesota.

The primary effect. It seems Kerry has strong support in Iowa.

But Kerry got a much higher percentage of the vote in Minnesota's caucus than he did in Iowa's. So that theory doesn't make any sense.

[© tweed]

But Kerry got a much higher percentage of the vote in Minnesota's caucus than he did in Iowa's. So that theory doesn't make any sense.

Kerry only got 10% more in MN because he has all of the momentum heading into Super Tuesday.

[Beet]

If you really think Bush is going to sweep the midwest, why would you exclude Iowa?  Most say he has a better chance there than in Minnesota.

The primary effect. It seems Kerry has strong support in Iowa.

But Kerry got a much higher percentage of the vote in Minnesota's caucus than he did in Iowa's. So that theory doesn't make any sense.

By that logic Kerry's high % of the vote in Florida means he has stronger support there than in Michigan, which is unlikely.