What will GA-Sen's result be?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 04:25:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What will GA-Sen's result be?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What will GA-Sen's result be
#1
Warnock wins outright in the first round
 
#2
Warnock leads in the first round, wins the runoff
 
#3
Warnock leads in the first round, loses the runoff
 
#4
Walker wins outright in the first round
 
#5
Walker leads in the first round, wins the runoff
 
#6
Walker leads in the first round, loses the runoff
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: What will GA-Sen's result be?  (Read 649 times)
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,412
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 09, 2022, 07:38:10 PM »

What will be the ultimate outcome of GA-Sen?
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2022, 07:40:18 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,218
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2022, 07:49:54 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,483
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2022, 07:57:58 PM »

It's going to a runoff and so will LA Mixon is gonna win Chambers is too Liberal Walker is polling well below 50, 47/44

Warnock, Abrams  and Mixon wins in Round 2 but Abrams may not win
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,328
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2022, 02:22:33 AM »

It ends up tight enough to go to a run-off (49.5-49 or so, I guess in favor of Walker), and Walker wins the run-off by 1-2%.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,209
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2022, 03:33:35 AM »

I think a runoff is 50-50 likely. Whoever wins a runoff I feel would depend on the composition in November. If the Dems are already at 50 without it, I think Warnock would win. If the GOP is already at 51, I think Dem turnout would be partly depressed and so Walker would win. If it's 50-49 GOP with this seat to decide control, it could go either way.

I think Warnock has a slightly better chance of winning in November outright but Walker could easily do the same. I'd say Walker has about a 60% chance of winning altogether as of now but that leaves plenty of room for the race to go other way. This is a race I probably wouldn't be even 70% confident on until the polls close in November.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,423
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2022, 05:52:53 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.

He absolutely is but that's not got so much to do with the national environment as it does to do with the fact that Rubio's an electoral titan of sorts, and FL/Miami-Dade's trends and the red wave won't hurt.

Anyway, I don't want to predict the actual winner, but it goes to a runoff.

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

It's going to a runoff. Walker may win the runoff, but it's going to a runoff.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2022, 08:17:02 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.
This is ridiculous. Lol. Rubio is popular in Florida…. Like what they do there has no bearing on people that live in the state of Georgia.
Logged
mtvoter
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 278
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2022, 10:15:45 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2022, 10:25:41 PM by mtvoter »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.

But given that Manchin's approvals are sky high with WV WWC voters, I believe this cancels out Electoral God Rubio's mega-coattails among the Latino voters, which means Warnock still has a chance as long as he manages to win amongst black voters, the only demographic group left alive after the clash of two electoral beasts from the North and the South of GA.

But I think if it's a big red wave combined with Walker's football career in GA, Warnock might lose the black vote and the election.
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,354
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2022, 10:52:32 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.
LOL SnowLabrador. You probably think that since all shifts are uniform that Duckworth will come within five of losing.
Logged
Unelectable Bystander
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,114
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2022, 11:26:49 PM »

Apparently this is bold on this forum, but Walker wins outright. Unless the third party vote is unusually high.

This. If Rubio is winning by 9-12 points, I don't think Warnock can win. I get that perfectly uniform swing nationwide doesn't happen, but I don't think FL and GA will swing that far apart in two years.

But given that Manchin's approvals are sky high with WV WWC voters, I believe this cancels out Electoral God Rubio's mega-coattails among the Latino voters, which means Warnock still has a chance as long as he manages to win amongst black voters, the only demographic group left alive after the clash of two electoral beasts from the North and the South of GA.

But I think if it's a big red wave combined with Walker's football career in GA, Warnock might lose the black vote and the election.

A+ post 😂
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2022, 03:44:13 PM »

Walker very narrowly avoids a runoff, but it votes only slightly to the right of NH, which tells you all you need to know about the state's long-term future and how long Walker's tenure will be.
Logged
Red Wall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2022, 05:10:03 PM »

Walker wins outright
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2022, 07:49:54 PM »

Voted Likely Warnock without a runoff.

- Runoff is unlikely. Tough for 3rd parties to make the ballot in Georgia and normally only the Libertarians are on the ballot besides Republicans and Democrats. Libertarians will probably get their usual 2% meaning it would take an extremely close race which I don't see.

- Walker IMHO is going to be a terrible candidate, an opposition researchers dream. The AP just had another damming story out this week about him threatening his former wife with a gun. Wait until after the primaries when Democrats drop their oppo research. Had Republicans ran a generic Rep from GA this would be a tossup race but Walker is going to be a disaster IMO.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,666
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2022, 08:49:09 PM »

Warnock wins, the GAGOP should have went with Glavine.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,542
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2022, 08:53:23 PM »

Walker wins outright.
Logged
Pink Panther
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,535


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2022, 09:24:03 PM »

Personally, I think this race is headed to a runoff. But I'm not confident at all to predict the runoff itself, as it depends on a plethora of factors that are present at the moment and those later in the campaign we don't know about yet. I believe the whole "GADEMS have a high floor and trending Dem rapidly" schtick, while very true, can be overstated at times, especially in this national environment. However, these factors are still huge, the GAGOP collapsing on itself at the moment, as well how Walker conducts his campaign, makes this race a pure tossup at the moment. If you want a more clear prediction, ask me somewhere in August or September, although there's a good chance the result will still be as blurry as it is right now.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,524
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2022, 03:10:20 PM »

Bold take: Warnock wins outright 50.3% to 49.4%.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,483
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2022, 05:11:24 PM »

D's aren't worried that much about GA, it's a Runoff, Cheri Beasley whom is a judge, Val DEMINGS, Luke Mixon and Tim Ryan are the candidates they are concerned with it's not for Prez, so Biden doesn't have to be 59 percent to win OH, NC and FL it's for Congress and D's won OH in. 2018 with 46/43 M votes not 80/75 M
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.241 seconds with 14 queries.