2022 Senate map around 304/234 blue wall comes into focus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2022-senate-map-comes-focus-135700302.html


Johnson is top target

NH, NV, GA, AZ, PA and WI are Tossups


47Ds/48 Rs 6 states are tossups

[Sir Mohamed]

WI-Sen is Lean or Likely R, tbh.

Johnson is absolutely horrible and obnoxious, but the 2022 environment will save him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

WI-Sen is Lean or Likely R, tbh.

Johnson is absolutely horrible and obnoxious, but the 2022 environment will save him.

Wasn't Johnson going to retire?

[Sir Mohamed]

WI-Sen is Lean or Likely R, tbh.

Johnson is absolutely horrible and obnoxious, but the 2022 environment will save him.

Wasn't Johnson going to retire?

He initially promised to retire, but recently changed his mind and is running for reelection. I expected that all along anyway.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

WI-Sen is Lean or Likely R, tbh.

Johnson is absolutely horrible and obnoxious, but the 2022 environment will save him.

Wasn't Johnson going to retire?

He initially promised to retire, but recently changed his mind and is running for reelection. I expected that all along anyway.

Imagine being RAWN JAWNSON and expecting people to believe that your contributions to this nation's politics are so important and so irreplaceable that going back on a term limits pledge is understandable. ayy lmao, especially since he might be right to expect that considering Wisconsin's midterm electorate.

[MarkD]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

[Utah Neolib]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

Any GOP nominee in Missouri is going to win by a safe margin. This isn’t 2012 anymore.

[Sir Mohamed]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

Any GOP nominee in Missouri is going to win by a safe margin. This isn’t 2012 anymore.

To be fair, 2016 was still close and even the race for gov was kind of competitive. Since, Dems have completely collapsed outside the metro areas and consequently there's no chance for a statewide win or even a semi-competitive election. Let alone an enviornment as 2022 is shaping up to be.

[Xing]

WI-Sen is Lean or Likely R, tbh.

Johnson is absolutely horrible and obnoxious, but the 2022 environment will save him.

Wasn't Johnson going to retire?

He initially promised to retire, but recently changed his mind and is running for reelection. I expected that all along anyway.

Imagine being RAWN JAWNSON and expecting people to believe that your contributions to this nation's politics are so important and so irreplaceable that going back on a term limits pledge is understandable. ayy lmao, especially since he might be right to expect that considering Wisconsin's midterm electorate.

Yeah, but you see, he "triggers the libs", or something like that so that makes him a terrific Senator (am I doing this right?)

[MT Treasurer]

RoJo's contributions to the United States Senate are rivaled only by the great champion Robert La Follette (who no doubt serves as a role model to Johnson, especially when compared to his dishonest 'populist' colleague), and Wisconsinites can be proud to count both men among their Senators. Like many other Republicans, I support him not because he triggers the libs but because he’s one of the tremendous yet exceedingly rare exemplars of decency, integrity, honesty, and basic compassion — all values that we have sacrificed to the mere gratification of our destructive partisan urges and short-term political gain. How rare is it that someone doesn’t get corrupted by power and/or actually adheres to his declared principles even after his election? Ron Johnson is too good for the Republican Party, much too good for the Republican caucus, and certainly too good for the state of Wisconsin, particularly the tribal, mindless partisans who oppose him now but will hold him up as a 'decent Republican' who put service and conviction ahead of partisanship in 10-20 years. The fact that he selflessly decided to go through another exhausting, divisive character assessination campaign and six more years in the rotten hellscape that is Congress solely to speak truth to power and dedicate himself to protecting all Wisconsinites, even those who wish him only the worst and don’t (yet) appreciate his service, is a laudable example of a courage the kind of which we can only dream of mustering up...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RoJo's contributions to the United States Senate are rivaled only by the great champion Robert La Follette (who no doubt serves as a role model to Johnson, especially when compared to his dishonest 'populist' colleague), and Wisconsinites can be proud to count both men among their Senators. Like many other Republicans, I support him not because he triggers the libs but because he’s one of the tremendous yet exceedingly rare exemplars of decency, integrity, honesty, and basic compassion — all values that we have sacrificed to the mere gratification of our destructive partisan urges and short-term political gain. How rare is it that someone doesn’t get corrupted by power and/or actually adheres to his declared principles even after his election? Ron Johnson is too good for the Republican Party, much too good for the Republican caucus, and certainly too good for the state of Wisconsin, particularly the tribal, mindless partisans who oppose him now but will hold him up as a 'decent Republican' who put service and conviction ahead of partisanship in 10-20 years. The fact that he selflessly decided to go through another exhausting, divisive character assessination campaign and six more years in the rotten hellscape that is Congress solely to speak truth to power and dedicate himself to protecting all Wisconsinites, even those who wish him only the worst and don’t (yet) appreciate his service, is a laudable example of a courage the kind of which we can only dream of mustering up...

Ron Johnson praised  Insurrectionists he will LOSE HE ONLY WON BY 350 k not  like Portman c'mon he is in no way the same as Grassley winning by 2M votes

[Xing]

RoJo's contributions to the United States Senate are rivaled only by the great champion Robert La Follette (who no doubt serves as a role model to Johnson, especially when compared to his dishonest 'populist' colleague), and Wisconsinites can be proud to count both men among their Senators. Like many other Republicans, I support him not because he triggers the libs but because he’s one of the tremendous yet exceedingly rare exemplars of decency, integrity, honesty, and basic compassion — all values that we have sacrificed to the mere gratification of our destructive partisan urges and short-term political gain. How rare is it that someone doesn’t get corrupted by power and/or actually adheres to his declared principles even after his election? Ron Johnson is too good for the Republican Party, much too good for the Republican caucus, and certainly too good for the state of Wisconsin, particularly the tribal, mindless partisans who oppose him now but will hold him up as a 'decent Republican' who put service and conviction ahead of partisanship in 10-20 years. The fact that he selflessly decided to go through another exhausting, divisive character assessination campaign and six more years in the rotten hellscape that is Congress solely to speak truth to power and dedicate himself to protecting all Wisconsinites, even those who wish him only the worst and don’t (yet) appreciate his service, is a laudable example of a courage the kind of which we can only dream of mustering up...

Parts of this were amusing, but you're trying just a bit too hard here .

[MarkD]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

Any GOP nominee in Missouri is going to win by a safe margin. This isn’t 2012 anymore.

Isn't the 2018 State Auditor election recent enough for you?

Oh, I see what you mean! Nicole Galloway didn't really win that election. The election was stolen from Republican Sandra McDowell. Those crafty Democrats and RINOs in the biggest counties of Missouri conspired to flip about 130,000 votes that were cast for McDowell and turn them into votes for Galloway. They flipped about 30,000 votes from R to D in St. Louis County, another 9,000 votes in St. Louis City, about 15,000 votes in St. Charles County, and so on with tens of thousands of votes in Jefferson, Boone, Cole, Greene, Jackson, Clay, Platte, and Buchanan Counties. And they even flipped hundreds of votes in Ste. Genevieve, Audrain, Callaway, Howard, Saline, and Ray Counties. That's why there hasn't been a true victory for any Democrat statewide since 2012, only one rigged victory.

[Utah Neolib]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

Any GOP nominee in Missouri is going to win by a safe margin. This isn’t 2012 anymore.

Isn't the 2018 State Auditor election recent enough for you?

Oh, I see what you mean! Nicole Galloway didn't really win that election. The election was stolen from Republican Sandra McDowell. Those crafty Democrats and RINOs in the biggest counties of Missouri conspired to flip about 130,000 votes that were cast for McDowell and turn them into votes for Galloway. They flipped about 30,000 votes from R to D in St. Louis County, another 9,000 votes in St. Louis City, about 15,000 votes in St. Charles County, and so on with tens of thousands of votes in Jefferson, Boone, Cole, Greene, Jackson, Clay, Platte, and Buchanan Counties. And they even flipped hundreds of votes in Ste. Genevieve, Audrain, Callaway, Howard, Saline, and Ray Counties. That's why there hasn't been a true victory for any Democrat statewide since 2012, only one rigged victory.

When did I say that Galloway’s win wasn’t valid? I was talking about a statewide federal senate election, not an auditor race.

[MarkD]

Why isn't Missouri ever mentioned as a potentially close race, like NC, PA, and WI?

According to the Wikipedia page, Eric Greitens is ahead in all of the polls of the last year. He's not far ahead, but he is consistently ahead. Suppose the race turns out to be Greitens v. Scott Sifton. According to the same Wiki page, the most recent poll taken if those were the nominees has Greitens at 39% to Sifton at 26%, and 35% undecided. That's a huge amount of voters for both candidates to try to win over. Look at the only race that Greitens ever ran in before: the 2016 Gubernatorial election. In the races that year, Greitens was the second-worst part of the GOP ticket. I calculated all of the votes cast that year for ten races: President, US Senate, US House, Governor, Lt. Gov., Sec. of State, Treasurer, A.G. state senate, and state representative. The GOP ticket won an average of 55.82% to the Democratic ticket getting 40.47% on average. (Or, ignoring all of the votes for "others," 57.97% to 42.03%.) But Greitens beat Chris Koster by only 51.14% to 45.47%. (Or without "others," 52.88% to 47.12%.) (The only other part of the GOP ticket that year that performed worse was Roy Blunt.) Furthermore, Greitens's appeal has almost certainly been diminished by the scandal that forced him to resign. So as such, I think that a Greitens v. Sifton race would be ranked as no more than a "Lean R" rating.

It would make more sense for Republican primary voters in Missouri to choose Eric Schmitt over Greitens, because Schmitt has certainly been one of the best vote-getters for the MO GOP in recent memory. If Schmitt does win the primary this August, THEN I could confidently rate the race as between "Likely R" and "Safe R."

Any GOP nominee in Missouri is going to win by a safe margin. This isn’t 2012 anymore.

Isn't the 2018 State Auditor election recent enough for you?

Oh, I see what you mean! Nicole Galloway didn't really win that election. The election was stolen from Republican Sandra McDowell. Those crafty Democrats and RINOs in the biggest counties of Missouri conspired to flip about 130,000 votes that were cast for McDowell and turn them into votes for Galloway. They flipped about 30,000 votes from R to D in St. Louis County, another 9,000 votes in St. Louis City, about 15,000 votes in St. Charles County, and so on with tens of thousands of votes in Jefferson, Boone, Cole, Greene, Jackson, Clay, Platte, and Buchanan Counties. And they even flipped hundreds of votes in Ste. Genevieve, Audrain, Callaway, Howard, Saline, and Ray Counties. That's why there hasn't been a true victory for any Democrat statewide since 2012, only one rigged victory.

When did I say that Galloway’s win wasn’t valid? I was talking about a statewide federal senate election, not an auditor race.

That was what you meant to say. And since my judicial philosophy is Originalism - I believe that an interpreter should strive to understand what someone intended to mean by what they said - I failed to do that this time. I should have realized that you meant to say you were referring to only federal senate elections. My bad.