SD-SEN 2022: Thune in for re-election

[ElectionsGuy]

Thune, like many/most Republican senators, is at the core of a lot of rot inside the Republican Party with their strategy/priorities, and represents McConnell type qualities as his buddy - but if you're just going to call him a RINO instead of pointing out why he sucks, all it does is it gives the Trump-hating establishment Republicans all the reason to ignore you and paint you as a Trump sycophant.

Which Republican Senators do you think are the exception to this? Which ones more accurately reflect the desires of the base and where the Party is headed? Or are there any Senators fitting that profile?

None of them are truly perfect in representing the base, but generally speaking, the newer ones (elected in the last decade or so) are much better at representing what their voters want than the ones that have been there for decades, or even the newer ones who's been in traditional Republican circles for many decades (like Tillis, Romney). People like Hawley, Cruz, Marshall, Lummis, Hagerty, Lee, Paul, and Cotton all represent their voters better than the vast majority of the others, even when among themselves they're separated factionally by their own sales pitch (Cotton representing hawks, Paul representing libertarian leaners, Hawley representing populist AF types). But the Senate GOP tends to be the most out of touch body of members relative to the base, of any governing institution. Worse than the House GOP, worse than state-level GOPs, etc. The McConnell wing of the Senate GOP are the types that would want to ignore vaccine mandates and illegal immigration (if they could) in favor of talking about cutting the capital gains tax rate and appointing federalist society judges. This is why you so often see them late to the game all of a sudden talking about these things once Tucker Carlson or Dan Bongino (or you name it) roasts them for not talking about it. Most of them have political sense, so they do end up giving the lip service necessary to not be threatened by a primary challenger but in their heart of hearts, don't actually WANT the discussion they're participating in.

What people get wrong when characterizing the "Trumpist" wing of the party is they are not the most ideologically extreme in the party. For example, in 2016 Ted Cruz represented the most ideologically extreme faction of the party, not Trump. When you look at a candidate like Joe Kent (WA-03) or a congressman like Matt Gaetz, some of the things they support would get them called a liberal by the most prominent Republicans 10 years ago, particularly when it comes to foreign policy and the security state issues. But the way the media, the Democratic Party, and many Republicans (to their detriment) assess their ideology is loyalty to Trump, which is usually strong even if Trump's record as president doesn't always support their statements. And so people like Gaetz are a common foil for the left to point to as "everything wrong with the GOP" even as many of their priorities are more popular not just among their base but also among the general population than many of the generic establishment Republicans, such as those who threaten a war with Russia over Ukraine's border.

Following up on this, however, I find it interesting that you mention Tucker Carlson in this context. Recently, Carlson criticized Ted Cruz for having called the 1/6 rioters "terrorists", and Cruz went on to his program to apologize for his "poor choice" of words. Of course, in the eyes of Democrats, this was seen as conceding to the crazier elements of the Republican Party, or as Cruz not demonstrating any backbone. And they believe Carlson is a white supremacist who exerts too much influence over the Party. But do you think that people like Carlson lead the Republican base, or that the things they say are reflective of what the base wants? I think it's a combination of the two.

And yes, McConnell and his allies (including Thune), do not share many of the Trumpist movement's priorities, particularly with regards to immigration and the culture war issues. Their concern has always been on cutting taxes, filling the judiciary with conservative judges, and overturning Obamacare. McConnell used Trump as a tool to enact these more traditional conservative goals, while ignoring the populist demands of the base. That helps to explain why he is the most unpopular political leader in the country. Republicans do not seem him as sufficiently advancing the causes of the right, while Democrats view him as a villain who is destroying the Republic's norms.

Yeah, I was going to bring it up, but thought the post was long enough. I thought that was very petty on Carlson's part, especially when Cruz is already so opposed to the Dems' Jan 6th narrative. Terrorism by definition is political violence, which is what some of the 1/6 rioters did (many did not, though). I didn't see too much controversy in what Cruz said (but notably I am much different than a typical Republican voter), but some of the base viewed it as giving legitimacy to the perceived mistreatment of Jan 6th protesters. A lot of the Trump wing types have never truly trusted Cruz after the 2016 primary, and this will just give them more reason to doubt. It seems Carlson wins whenever he picks a fight with anyone (see Kristi Noem, Asa Hutchison, among others) so I don't even know why Cruz went on, but I suppose he thought he had to save his credibility. But if you listen to Cruz's explanation, I did think it made sense (saying he always used the term when describing people who assaulted officers), but it just reeked of desperation to backtrack on Tucker. I don't know what kind of damage it'll do to Cruz's reputation going forward, but I think it's far too much of an echo chamber right-populist opinion to say that he's part of the establishment, like some of them have suggested. Like, did we just forget the last 10 years where people like Boehner have expressed absolute hatred of the man? He's clearly not a go-along to get-along guy.

I think Carlson is one of the best representatives for the Republican base on cable. Notably, however, most of Fox News, especially during the daytime, represents establishment Republican talking points. Few hosts, like Tucker Carlson and to a smaller extent Laura Ingram, represent more populist tendencies. Some of Carlson's opinions are more independent and idiosyncratic and do not represent typical Republicans as well, but he does do a lot of leading. I don't think the Republican base would be as skeptical of their establishment politicians like McConnell if Tucker wasn't on the air. And yes, McConnell's favorability is one of the worst because the Republican base does not trust him (rightfully so) on top of Independents and Democrats villifying him, unlike Pelosi who at least has her base of Democrats even if Independents and Republicans alike despise her.