Predictions for House gains?

[MaC]

I'll say Democrats +10.  Being that the GOP doesn't look good right now, and Democrats win gain, but neither party is looking 'promising'.  Third parties might do better all-around this year.

[Nym90]

Democrats +25

[WalterMitty]

democrats +18

[Jake]

Democrats +15

Democratic Gains (16):
AZ-8
CO-7
CT-4
FL-16
IA-1
IN-8
IN-9
MN-6
NM-1
NY-24
NY-26
OH-18
PA-6
PA-7
TX-22
WA-8

Republican Gains (1):
GA-8

[Deano963]

Democrats +30

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats +20

[zorkpolitics]

Unfortunately I think the current undecideds will break Democratic, that will move additional close races into the Democratic column.
Prediction: Democrats pick up 35 seats

[Sam Spade]

When I get my next House prediction list up, it'll say Dems +23. 

However, there are a bunch of qualifiers.  The playing field has been widened somewhat over the past couple of weeks.  There appears to be a very slight bounce back to the GOP this week after two really good weeks for the Dems.

But I think it is more likely the GOP gets swept up in a national wave and loses about 30-35 seats, possibly 40, than the thing bouncing back to an evenly divided House.  At present, I am figuring there are about 10 GOP seats where there is a solid 4%-5% Dem lead at least right now.  About 2/3rds of these seats are within a 5%-10% Dem lead, whereas the other 3 or 4 are already lost (you should know which ones they are).

Past that, we have about another 20-25 seats that can be considered toss-up.  In an ordinary environment, about half go to the GOP, half to the Dems.  In a wave environment, about 3/4rds of them would fall.  Getting further down the list, it is hard for me to find more than maybe 15-20 seats I believe could be affected by a national wave, depending of course, on where the wave was centered (a tough thing to figure, always).  That's the reason I put the limit at 40.  I just can't see it higher than that with present gerrymandering.

For the GOP to get back where it could legimitately say it could keep the House, at least 5 of those 10 solid Dem lead seats would need to go back to toss-up.  If that happened, the next thing you would see is that the toss-up list would shorten back to about 20, where it was before the last three or four weeks.

Strangely enough, I actually think the GOP odds of making their loss in the Senate less than 5 have improved over the past week and their odds to lose the Senate should go down.  Ford, after running a perfect campaign the past few months has made some real screw-ups the past week (the interruption of the Corker campaign event looked idiotic).  I still believe that Missouri is on the GOP line of the toss-up side.  It is to be said that Virginia will be close, but once again, I have still not seen Webb lead in any poll (this is a big thing for me).  It looks like Burns and Chafee have improved position in their races.  On the other hand, I think DeWine is pretty much done.  Kean looks to me like he will fail in New Jersey, though he's getting funding.  Santorum, well, that's kind of obvious.  I feel like Maryland is lean D and SUSA is on its rocker, but I've been wrong before on this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Right now I say Democrats gain:

AZ-01
AZ-08
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
FL-13
FL-16
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
IA-01
KY-03
MN-06
NM-01
NY-24
NY-26
NC-11
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22
WI-08
VA-02

Republican gains:

none

Democrats +26

[Deano963]

Anyone else noticing how the contested NY House races are all starting to swing strongly in favor of the Democrats? It looked all cycle like this whole "NY sweep" scenario wasn't going to pan out. Now it looks as if as many as 7 of the 9 NY GOP House members may go down.

What's causing this? Spitzer and Clinton bringing their warchests and star power to help their fellow Dems? Is NY just fed up with the GOP nationally as well?

[okstate]

Dem gains:

TX-22
AZ-08
IN-08
NY-26
PA-10
NY-24
NC-11
IN-02
OH-18
FL-16
CO-07
NM-01
PA-07
IA-01
OH-15
PA-06
IN-09
WI-08
CT-02
FL-13
CT-04
MN-06
IL-06
NY-20
VA-02
FL-22
WY-AL
WA-08
NY-29
OH-01
PA-08
CT-05
NY-19

No GOP gains

Dems +33

[Smash255]

dems +27

[Democratic Hawk]

I'll call mine on November 6!

Dave

[Smash255]

Anyone else noticing how the contested NY House races are all starting to swing strongly in favor of the Democrats? It looked all cycle like this whole "NY sweep" scenario wasn't going to pan out. Now it looks as if as many as 7 of the 9 NY GOP House members may go down.

What's causing this? Spitzer and Clinton bringing their warchests and star power to help their fellow Dems? Is NY just fed up with the GOP nationally as well?

agreed only NY-13 and NY-23 are the safe GOP seats.  The other 7, including my district of NY-03 are competitive & can flip

[Smash255]

I'll call mine on November 6!

Me too!

I reserve the right to make any adjustments n Nov 6 to my prediction of 27

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats plus 21 as of now.