The Political State of the USA [Maps]

[Tender Branson]

Will Colorado eventually become completely  controlled by Democrats in 2008 by winning the Allard Senate seat and the presidency ? Did this ever happen before in Colorado ?

Not sure if it has happened before, but the chances of the Dems in 08 winning CO on the Presidential level is quite strong, and the chances of them winning the Senate seat is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

I just looked it up. Did not happen before. At least not in the last 50 years. In 1977 it was close, Colorado had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators and a Majority Democratic Congressional Delegation, but Jimmy Carter didn´t won Colorado for the Presidency.

Therefore 2008 could be primetime for an all-Democratic-controlled-Colorado.

[Deano963]

Will Colorado eventually become completely  controlled by Democrats in 2008 by winning the Allard Senate seat and the presidency ? Did this ever happen before in Colorado ?

Not sure if it has happened before, but the chances of the Dems in 08 winning CO on the Presidential level is quite strong, and the chances of them winning the Senate seat is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

I just looked it up. Did not happen before. At least not in the last 50 years. In 1977 it was close, Colorado had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators and a Majority Democratic Congressional Delegation, but Jimmy Carter didn´t won Colorado for the Presidency.

Therefore 2008 could be primetime for an all-Democratic-controlled-Colorado.

Holding the Democratic National Convention in Denver in '08 would certainly help. I really hope Denver is picked over NYC, and I think Howard is leaning that way at the moment.

[Deano963]

As far as 2010 congressional redistricting goes, here is a map of which parties will have control in which states if the party control stays the same:

Image Link

Red - Dems have complete control
Blue - GOP has complete control
Green - Split control (or irrelevant in the cases of the at-large states)


Edit: Actually about 5-6 states do independent redistricting regardless of who controls the governorship and state legislature. Does anybody know which states do this?

You have Ohio shaded the wrong color on your map. It should be shaded red, not green. In Ohio, the legislature does not control redistricting. A panel made up of the Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, and one member of each party from the legislature make up a five-member Apportionment Board that draw the state and Congressional lines. Right now Democrats have control of the Apportionment Board b/c they picked up the Governor and SoS's offices in the elections (Republicans retained the open Auditor's seat), giving them 3 out of 5 seats on the Board. A simple majority is needed to approve of new plans. Of course, as you already noted, this will only matter assuming Democrats still have control of the process when it is time for redistricting after the 2010 census, unless they decide to redistrict mid-decade, as the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that any state has the legal right to do. Not that I think that will even be necessary, as I doubt that either Strickland or Brunner will lose reelection in 2010.

[nclib]

As far as 2010 congressional redistricting goes, here is a map of which parties will have control in which states if the party control stays the same:

Image Link

Red - Dems have complete control
Blue - GOP has complete control
Green - Split control (or irrelevant in the cases of the at-large states)


Edit: Actually about 5-6 states do independent redistricting regardless of who controls the governorship and state legislature. Does anybody know which states do this?

You have Ohio shaded the wrong color on your map. It should be shaded red, not green. In Ohio, the legislature does not control redistricting. A panel made up of the Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, and one member of each party from the legislature make up a five-member Apportionment Board that draw the state and Congressional lines. Right now Democrats have control of the Apportionment Board b/c they picked up the Governor and SoS's offices in the elections (Republicans retained the open Auditor's seat), giving them 3 out of 5 seats on the Board. A simple majority is needed to approve of new plans. Of course, as you already noted, this will only matter assuming Democrats still have control of the process when it is time for redistricting after the 2010 census, unless they decide to redistrict mid-decade, as the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that any state has the legal right to do. Not that I think that will even be necessary, as I doubt that either Strickland or Brunner will lose reelection in 2010.

Thanks for the info. I'll change it on the map. Anyway, I updated the first map, taking into consideration which states have bi-partisan commissions such as Washington and Idaho.

[Democratic Hawk]

Will Colorado eventually become completely  controlled by Democrats in 2008 by winning the Allard Senate seat and the presidency ? Did this ever happen before in Colorado ?

Not sure if it has happened before, but the chances of the Dems in 08 winning CO on the Presidential level is quite strong, and the chances of them winning the Senate seat is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

I just looked it up. Did not happen before. At least not in the last 50 years. In 1977 it was close, Colorado had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators and a Majority Democratic Congressional Delegation, but Jimmy Carter didn´t won Colorado for the Presidency.

Therefore 2008 could be primetime for an all-Democratic-controlled-Colorado.

I agree, it's possible. Colorado seems to recoiling from Republican excesses as a whole; though, of course, two of her congressional districts still elect nut jobs

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will Colorado eventually become completely  controlled by Democrats in 2008 by winning the Allard Senate seat and the presidency ? Did this ever happen before in Colorado ?

Not sure if it has happened before, but the chances of the Dems in 08 winning CO on the Presidential level is quite strong, and the chances of them winning the Senate seat is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

I just looked it up. Did not happen before. At least not in the last 50 years. In 1977 it was close, Colorado had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators and a Majority Democratic Congressional Delegation, but Jimmy Carter didn´t won Colorado for the Presidency.

Therefore 2008 could be primetime for an all-Democratic-controlled-Colorado.

I agree, it's possible. Colorado seems to recoiling from Republican excesses as a whole; though, of course, two of her congressional districts still elect nut jobs

Dave

Three. The guy who just won in CO-5 was the Club for Growth candidate.

I really hope we can take the governorship in 2010 and keep our leg majorities. Then we can gerrymander out Bachmann if she's still around.

[Deano963]

As far as 2010 congressional redistricting goes, here is a map of which parties will have control in which states if the party control stays the same:

Image Link

Red - Dems have complete control
Blue - GOP has complete control
Green - Split control (or irrelevant in the cases of the at-large states)


Edit: Actually about 5-6 states do independent redistricting regardless of who controls the governorship and state legislature. Does anybody know which states do this?

You have Ohio shaded the wrong color on your map. It should be shaded red, not green. In Ohio, the legislature does not control redistricting. A panel made up of the Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, and one member of each party from the legislature make up a five-member Apportionment Board that draw the state and Congressional lines. Right now Democrats have control of the Apportionment Board b/c they picked up the Governor and SoS's offices in the elections (Republicans retained the open Auditor's seat), giving them 3 out of 5 seats on the Board. A simple majority is needed to approve of new plans. Of course, as you already noted, this will only matter assuming Democrats still have control of the process when it is time for redistricting after the 2010 census, unless they decide to redistrict mid-decade, as the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that any state has the legal right to do. Not that I think that will even be necessary, as I doubt that either Strickland or Brunner will lose reelection in 2010.

Thanks for the info. I'll change it on the map. Anyway, I updated the first map, taking into consideration which states have bi-partisan commissions such as Washington and Idaho.

I just realized today that I was wrong when I said that the Apportionment Board draws Congressional lines as well as state legislative lines. The Apportionment Board only draws state legislative lines. Congressional lines are drawn by the legislature, so in order for the Democrats to be able to redraw the Congressional lines in their favor in 2010/2011, they will either need to take control of the Ohio State House and Senate through the '08 and '10 elections, or the Apportionment Board would have to take the unusual yet newly-approved-by-the-Supreme-Court step of redrawing the state legislative lines mid-decade to put Democrats in control of the state legislature before it is time to redraw the Congressional districts in 2010.

[Tender Branson]

House of Representatives - majority delegation

Red = Democratic majority / Blue = Republican majority / Green = Even

And now the combined votes in 2006 of every House district by state:

(Interesting the fact that allthough states like Ohio have a majority GOP House delegation, the Democratic Candidates got the most votes in the state in the 2006 elections. Therefore my new map...Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and Wisconsin, Iowa and Wyoming are pretty close, the Dems lost them just by 1-3% each)