Alcon's 2006 Election Projection Thread - Senators

[MasterJedi]

Wisconsin
Outlook: Safe Democrat
Democrat Herb Kohl is surprisingly safe for a Senator who is not all that well-known, but he has the money and the popularity back home to defeat whatever no-name the Wisconsin GOP puts up in a small landslide.

Damn Herb Kohl, he may be safe but here's one vote he won't get!

[Kevinstat]

Maine
Outlook: Safe Republican
Republican Olympia Snowe carried all but 6 of the 508 townships in Maine in 2000 (her losses were in Grand Isle, Kittery, Penobscot Nation, Pittson, Pleasant Point, and Rockport). Snowe hasn't done anything since that would anger a sufficient amount of the electorate to lose, and she will easily triumph again in 2006.

Snowe carried Pittston and Rockport (with 73 and 74 percent of the vote respectively), but lost Frenchville, Indian Township (like Pleasant Point a Passamaquoddy Reservation) and Madawaska in addition to the other towns and reservations you mentioned.  She got 68.9% of the vote statewide, however, so your basic point that she won in a landslide is correct.  I do disagree slightly, however, with your other sentence discussing her candidacy, however.  A lot of conservative Republicans feel betrayed by her with her votes against convicting President Clinton (even though that was a long time ago, although it has been replaced recently by anger over more recent votes and actions of hers), her support of McCain-Fiengold (sp?), her vote against a high-profile 2002 tax cut bill (and for her mulling opposition to Bush's 2001 tax cuts without what she called a "trigger option" that I think would have been beneficial in light of the recession that "followed" - or continued if you feel that way), her votes against a ban on partial-birth abortion, her support for gun control measures, her lack of condemnation of Al Gore for trying to, as they see it, steal the 2000 Presidential Election and, most recently, her being part of the comprimise deal re: judicial filibusters rather than insisting on an up or down vote on each nominee lest she support the nuclear option.  On a conservative web site I frequent (it's a good source of candidate rumors, other speculation and what is up in state and to a lesser degree federal government, even though the comments are largely from conservatives), some posters who have defended Snowe in the past now want her out and someone more conservative in.  Whenever Snowe or Collins comes up for reelection, there is a great debate as to whether or not one should support them as the "lesser of two evils" and the best positioned Republican to win the general election or whether either they could be defeated in the primary or even if they are a greater evil then their Democratic opponents because they weaken the Republican party, prevent a "real" Republican from getting elected and/or at least the Democratic opponents are honest about being socialists (or at least Democrats, thus indicating that they support that party's agenda which they see as socialist).

Brian Duprey, a conservative state representative who has presented several controversial and provocative pieces of legislation, has been openly considering challenging Snowe in the primary, and I have recently heard that Bob Stone, a conservative activist and former state Senate candidate (he lost heavily in a heavily Democratic district), has announced his intention to run for the Repubican nomination.  Neither is likely to defeat Snowe if they run, and I wouldn't say it's a certainty that either one will.  But while I still expect Snowe to win comfortably, don't be surprised if the percentage of people who go to the polls in that election (I think that is now recorded in Maine, but if I couldn't access those totals I could use the Governor's race in which there are likely to be enough candidates there that even most fringe voters will find someone to vote for) who vote for her goes noticably down due to conservatives leaving the ballot blank on that race or writing someone in.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Alcon]

Thanks for your comments, Kevin.

I'll consider adding mentions of the challenges if they materialize into a major factor.

However, looking at CNN's 2000 election results, I see her losing both Pittston (62-38) and Rockport (58-42).  Where are you getting your numbers?

[Smash255]

See my signature on NY.

As a Long Islander I am very happy to have a Spitzer Clinton combo .  I'm not sure why you really want LI statehood anyway, it will most likely add 2 Democrats to the Senate

[Kevinstat]

Alcon,

I'm getting my numbers from the web site of the Elections Division of the Department of the Secretary of State in Maine.  To see all the page with all the election results on the site, go to http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/prior.htm .  To see the results of the general election (there were no contested primaries on either side) for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2000, go to http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/2000g/gen00s.htm .

Edited to add: For ease of reference, Pittston is in Kennebec County and Rockport is in Knox County.  Frenchville, Grand Isle and Madawaska are in Aroostook County, the Penobscot Nation Voting District is in (surprise) Penobscot County, the Pleasant Point and Indian Township Voting Districts are in Washington County and Kittery is in York County.

Kevin

[Alcon]

Kevin,

Very odd.  CNN has seriously screwed up numbers.

[Gustaf]

I THINK, though I don't really know, that West Virginians will still vote for West Virginia Democrats, much in the way that the people of many Southern states still do. I didn't think that there was a West Virginia GOP worth its name?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I didn't think that there was a West Virginia GOP worth its name?

Now, now let's not mock Monty Warner *too* much

[Joe Republic]

As long as Alcon's projections remain accurate, with only two pick-ups going both ways, it looks like the partisan breakdown will remain 55-44-1.  Looks like 2006 won't be the Democrats' 1994.

[King]

Wisconsin
Outlook: Safe Democrat
Democrat Herb Kohl is surprisingly safe for a Senator who is not all that well-known, but he has the money and the popularity back home to defeat whatever no-name the Wisconsin GOP puts up in a small landslide.

Damn Herb Kohl, he may be safe but here's one vote he won't get!

He still has a sh**tty NBA team.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

hahahahaha

Got to love the Harris comments in this, among others.