MD: Survey USA: Maryland Senate statistically tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Maryland Senator by Survey USA on 2006-10-17

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Moooooo]

They obviously know something every other polling firm does not.  Maybe they are weighting Prince George's (large black population and Steele's home county) heavier than other firms?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe Cardin isn't a show in, he is the favorite but not a shoe in.

[poughies]

Survey USA has consistenly showed this race closer than any other polling firm. Makes me suspicious a bit much. Though they could be right... IDK

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, being a cautious sod, it might be better for Cardin that not all polls show him ahead of the "vote for me cos I'm Black" one-footed elephant. I don't know who I dislike more this election season, Steele or Lamont

Hell, that Gallup poll giving him a lead of 15% was dangerous in that complacency might set in and we can't be having Steele slipping in through the back door

Dave

[Bdub]

Cardin still has the edge.  However,  Steele could still pull through if he tries hard enough.

[CultureKing]

this poll seems out of whack to me... lately Survey USA has been posting some rather odd polls

[Kevin]

I'm not suprised about this. You all should see Cardins commercials they are really bad when the first came on in matter of fact I thought it was some comedy routine or joke.

[Deano963]

Survey USA has consistenly showed this race closer than any other polling firm.

Yeh you're right. Go look at the Senatorial Polls map and click on Maryland. Survey USA's last poll on this race (which had Steele up by 1) was the only one out of the last 20 polls that showed Steele in the lead. No other poll of the last 20 has showed Steele within 5 points of Cardin besides Survey USA. Definitely an outlier.

[Moooooo]

#

Seems like their crosstabs are a little off.

SUSA
Men - 46
Women - 54

Gonzales uses 50/50, which is probably correct.

SUSA
Democrat- 51
Republican- 33
Independent- 14

Gonzales uses the following
Democrat- 56
Republican- 32
Independent- 12

Probably a little closer to reality, too.

Gonzales is a reputable local pollster who the local pundits refer to as the best in MD.

[Conan]

Look at the 2004 exit polls for registration and men/women ratio.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MD/P/00/index.html

[Eraserhead]

Same result as the last SUSA poll and it is still wrong.

[Gabu]

Something strange is going on with Survey USA here.  Look at all of the polls for Maryland's Senate race since September.

In reverse chronological order:

Survey USA - Tie
Rasmussen - D +9
Public Opinion Strategies - D +4
Zogby - D +8
Gallup - D +15
Consumer Logic - D +5
Mason-Dixon - D +6
Survey USA - R +1
Potomac Survey Research - D +11
Rasmussen - D +7

In both cases, Survey USA produced a ridiculous outlier compared to what pretty much every other poll was saying.

There are basically only two options: either Survey USA knows something everyone else doesn't, or this poll should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Mike in Maryland]

This is probably several points off, but Dave Hawk is right.  We haven't won this thing yet, and if all the polls showed a substantial (but not insurmountable) Democratic lead we might get lulled into a false sense of security.  Overconfidence and/or carelessness could be our worst enemies here.

Still, if the Republicans' polls showed similar results you'd think they'd be making this a higher priority, casting further doubt on the results.  I don't know the Democrats' internal polls either, but Cardin sounded confident about them (maybe too much so.)

I'd also like to know if they weighted for different parts of the state; I have a vague feeling they undercounted the DC suburbs.  Especially Montgomery County, which has the state's largest population and often among its highest turnout rates.  (I looked at the breakdown and it was too vague to tell me much.)  Also, I doubt the Green candidate will get 3% of the vote, though it's not impossible.

[AuH2O]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

How's Mark Kennedy enjoying his 5 point lead over Klobuchar?

[AuH2O]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

How's Mark Kennedy enjoying his 5 point lead over Klobuchar?

Man, my reading abilities have really declined. The other minute I was reading legal treatises on the duty to disclose information in real estate transactions, and now I can't tell Maryland from Minnesota. I try to post about Maryland and, here I am, in a thread all about Kennedy and Klobuchar. My apologies.

[Mike in Maryland]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

What's so "disgusting" about it?

[Virginian87]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

How's Mark Kennedy enjoying his 5 point lead over Klobuchar?

Man, my reading abilities have really declined. The other minute I was reading legal treatises on the duty to disclose information in real estate transactions, and now I can't tell Maryland from Minnesota. I try to post about Maryland and, here I am, in a thread all about Kennedy and Klobuchar. My apologies.

Hey, while you're at it, where's this crazy out-of-control scandal about Jim Webb you were talking about four months ago?

[AuH2O]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

How's Mark Kennedy enjoying his 5 point lead over Klobuchar?

Man, my reading abilities have really declined. The other minute I was reading legal treatises on the duty to disclose information in real estate transactions, and now I can't tell Maryland from Minnesota. I try to post about Maryland and, here I am, in a thread all about Kennedy and Klobuchar. My apologies.

Hey, while you're at it, where's this crazy out-of-control scandal about Jim Webb you were talking about four months ago?

I didn't say it was "crazy." I'm just surprised, when the race got more competitive, Allen's campaign didn't dig up Webb's extra-marital affairs that are known to a lot of people. Maybe Allen's campaign was worried it would backfire.

Or Webb's ex-wife could have lied about the whole thing, that's who I heard it from. Even if its false though, since when does that matter in politics?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even if its false though, since when does that matter in politics?

Well, of course your side doesn't care about the truth. We will never ever forgive you guys for swiftboating Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cardin's ad campaign has been pretty disgusting, from the perspective of an intelligent person. I think tactically he's making a huge, huge mistake. He's the favorite because of the environment, but he doesn't deserve it. And there is a chance Steele takes it, probably a 10% probability or so.

How's Mark Kennedy enjoying his 5 point lead over Klobuchar?

Man, my reading abilities have really declined. The other minute I was reading legal treatises on the duty to disclose information in real estate transactions, and now I can't tell Maryland from Minnesota. I try to post about Maryland and, here I am, in a thread all about Kennedy and Klobuchar. My apologies.

Hey, nothing wrong with reminding you of your delusional hackish statements when you make new ones.

You missed my bumping of this thread, so I figured you needed a little reminder: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=25054.0