NPR: Dems lead big in Congressional races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://politicalwire.com/

[Democratic Hawk]

I've taken a closer look of the Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg, Quinlan and Rosner Research poll commissioned by National Public Radio in the 48 most competitive House districts, so I'll make some comments

First of all, in these 48 Districts combined in 2004, Republicans outpolled Democrats by 12%

In the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 51% to 40%, with 8% undecided and 1% refusing to say

Both Base Democrats (26% of the sample); Soft Democrats (16%) are more enthusiastic than Base Republicans (24%) and Soft Republicans (18%)

In the named congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 43%, with 1% for Others and 6% either undecided or refusing to say

Support by party

- Republicans (42%): 79% are voting Republican, 13% Democrat, with 8% undecided
- Democrats (42%): 87% are voting Democrat, 11% Republican, with 2% undecided
- Independents (16%): 50% are voting Democrat, 30% Republican, with 20% undecided

Support by ideology

- Among those who are very conservative (20%), 72% are voting Republican, 24% Democrat, with 4% undecided
- Among those who are somewhat conservative (20%), 58% are voting Republican, 29% Democrat, with 13% undecided
- Among moderates (39%), 59% are voting Democrat, 34% Republican, with 7% undecided
- Among liberals (19%), 82% are voting Democrat, 13% Republican, with 5% undecided

Regional variation

- In the Northeast (15 districts), Democrats lead Republicans by 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided
- In the Midwest (either 12 or 13 districts), Democrats lead Republicans by 50% to 42%, with 8% undecided
- In the South (either 12 or 13 districts), Democrats lead Republicans by 53% to 42%, with 5% undecided
- In the West (8 districts), Democrats lead Republicans by 51% to 40%, with 9% undecided

Dave