OH Sen: Brown up by 8 in new Rasmussen poll

[Deano963]

In a new Rasmussen poll to be released tomorrow, Oct. 5, Sherrod Brown leads Mike Dewine by 8 points.

Brown (D) - 49%
Dewine (R) - 41%

http://ohio2006elections.blogspot.com/

In the last Rasmussen poll, Brown lead by 6. A 2-point increase is not a big jump, but the lead is well outside of the margin of error. With Ted Strickland consistently leading in the governor's race by 20 points, a Brown victory is looking more and more like a sure thing, as is the likelihood of Democrats picking up more than 4 seats in the Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

I had a feeling that this would end badly. Oh well...I guess we have to hope for the best here, Republicans. DeWine is starting to look like Santorum in terms of how much he is down but at least Santorum has the record of coming back. DeWine is probably done.

[poughies]

I think DeWine is a cooked mongoose....... I feel very confident Ohio, Penn, and Montana. I got a good feeling in Rhode Island.... and a pretty good one in Tennessee..... Missouri is a BIG question mark. I got no clue..... And in New Jersey, i'm also confused.

[Deano963]

I think DeWine is a cooked mongoose....... I feel very confident Ohio, Penn, and Montana. I got a good feeling in Rhode Island.... and a pretty good one in Tennessee..... Missouri is a BIG question mark. I got no clue..... And in New Jersey, i'm also confused.

Actually, I am not even confident of a Brown win myself. I'm trying to reassure myself more than anyone else that he will win. The RNC is going to spend $10 million to smear him with viciously negative ads from now until Election Day (Ohio is a firewall state), and I won't ever underestimate their GOTV efforts in Ohio. The good news is that Brown has already been outpsent by the republicans by more than 2-to-1 and their attacks ads don't seem to be sticking, and he is still leading. Actually, if this poll is accurate, he has INCREASED his lead since the barrage against him began. Maybe I should be less pessimistic. Like I said, the Republicans put up a truly AWFUL candidate for governor who will probably drag down the entire ticket, while the Dems put up the best candidate they possibly could have, and he will help the ticket. Of course there is also the fact that the Ohio GOP is in full-blown, meltdown/crisis mode and the atmosphere in the state is absolutely toxic for them right now.

There, I reassured myself Brown is going to win again........

[Democratic Hawk]

I think DeWine is a cooked mongoose....... I feel very confident Ohio, Penn, and Montana. I got a good feeling in Rhode Island.... and a pretty good one in Tennessee..... Missouri is a BIG question mark. I got no clue..... And in New Jersey, i'm also confused.

Actually, I am not even confident of a Brown win myself. I'm trying to reassure myself more than anyone else that he will win. The RNC is going to spend $10 million to smear him with viciously negative ads from now until Election Day (Ohio is a firewall state), and I won't ever underestimate their GOTV efforts in Ohio. The good news is that Brown has already been outpsent by the republicans by more than 2-to-1 and their attacks ads don't seem to be sticking, and he is still leading. Actually, if this poll is accurate, he has INCREASED his lead since the barrage against him began. Maybe I should be less pessimistic. Like I said, the Republicans put up a truly AWFUL candidate for governor who will probably drag down the entire ticket, while the Dems put up the best candidate they possibly could have, and he will help the ticket. Of course there is also the fact that the Ohio GOP is in full-blown, meltdown/crisis mode and the atmosphere in the state is absolutely toxic for them right now.

There, I reassured myself Brown is going to win again........

Perhaps if the GOP go on the attack too much, it will backfire. Brown having trailed in the early going he's holding his ground. There was a time I thought he had a poor chance of defeating DeWine in spite of Ohio's GOP woes. I'm hoping the Democrats manage one or two House gains

Dave

[Eraserhead]

This one is going the way of the PA and MT races in that you can ALMOST count them as automatic Democratic pick-ups.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel sorry for the guy who sat next to me in Elections class today. Today we got our assignment of election predictions, and of course me and him started filling out ones we were already sure of (the rather obvious races like Massachusetts and Indiana for me.) I noticed he put down DeWine to win and warned him that DeWine was down in most polls, he also put down Burns. That guy basically said he didn't believe the polls and had little doubt those states wouldn't elect Democrats. Oh well.

For the record, the assignment isn't due until the Friday before election day, and the only races I have not filled in yet:

Connecticut
Missouri
Tennessee
New Jersey
Rhode Island
And yes, Ohio (but I bet I'll be able to fill it in not too far from now)

[Deano963]

I noticed he put down DeWine to win and warned him that DeWine was down in most polls, he also put down Burns. That guy basically said he didn't believe the polls and had little doubt those states wouldn't elect Democrats. Oh well.

LOL. Did you try telling him that Montana's Governor and other Senator are both Democrats? And that Strickland is going to win by at least 15?

I'll never get over the simplicity and stupidity of someone saying "State X is to Y to ever elect a Z!" If Democrats can coast to reelection in states like WY and ND, and Repubs can do the same in CT and VT, you would think people would stop using that line of reasoning.....

[poughies]

Missouri is nearly impossible.... I would put my money on whitehouse at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I noticed he put down DeWine to win and warned him that DeWine was down in most polls, he also put down Burns. That guy basically said he didn't believe the polls and had little doubt those states wouldn't elect Democrats. Oh well.

LOL. Did you try telling him that Montana's Governor and other Senator are both Democrats? And that Strickland is going to win by at least 15?

I'll never get over the simplicity and stupidity of someone saying "State X is to Y to ever elect a Z!" If Democrats can coast to reelection in states like WY and ND, and Repubs can do the same in CT and VT, you would think people would stop using that line of reasoning.....

eh, I figured his loss. He can kick himself when it gets graded.

Missouri is nearly impossible.... I would put my money on whitehouse at this point.

I would too, but things can change, and it's not like I get any bonus points for filling it in later. The only reason I didn't wait until the due date to fill it out is it'd be rather silly to wait to make the call in California or New Mexico.

In addition to the Senate races you have to predict the party to control the US house (blank), party to control the US Senate (blank),  Minnesota governor's race (blank), all 8 Houses races in Minnesota (filled in 6/8, every one except MN-6 and my home district of MN-1), the party to control the MN House (I accidentially filled this in as DFL intending to do so for the Senate, but it's a total toss up, so why not err on the side of optimism?), and party to control the MN Senate (filled in as DFL)

[Deano963]

Bump. This is what a credible poll looks like everyone.

Anyone who takes these new Zogby/Rueters polls seriosuly, especially when compared to Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls, is an imbecile.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby polls are similar to MD that had it a 2 pt race. Rasmussen also had Ford ahead by five and Ensign up by only nine I wouldn't take all his polls accurately. Ford is ahead by 1 like MD and Ensign is ahead alot more than nine pts.

[Conan]

Earlier, I thought this race would be extremely competitive or slightly DeWines. Now it's obvious Brown will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't count DeWine out yet, if his approvals improve, which they might, there is still a chance, and Cook still rates this as tossup.

[Deano963]

I wouldn't count DeWine out yet, if his approvals improve, which they might, there is still a chance, and Cook still rates this as tossup.

Hahaha. Cook also still rates Pennsylvania and Montana as toss-ups, so that's not saying much.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The fact that Brown is leading with almost 50% of the vote is astounding for Ohio.  This is a unique election and from the GOP point of view, a particularly bad one in Ohio.  I have been motivated to change my prediction now; my previous prediction was 51%-47% for Brown which I can still half expect, but still, my new prediction:

OHIO SENATE
Brown (D) 53%
DeWine (R) 45%
Other 2%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sherrod Brown really comes across as a likable, avarage guy in person, but on TV he comes across as more annoying.  By the way I talked to him on several times, he is NOT one of those annoying people who just say "hi!", shake your hand and than run away.  He really talks to you.  And he remembers peoples names.