Would DeSantis do better in these metro areas than Trump?

[THG]

“Do you want DeSantis to win the election?”

In all seriousness, while there are some voters who disliked Trump but would be open to a different Republican (though not necessarily DeSantis), #NeverTrumpers are not the only reason many of these areas trended Democratic. Counties like Collin which are growing very fast and gaining voters who are unlikely to vote Republican as a whole are not going to reverse their trend because Trump is off the ballot. If there’s one area that is likely to shift toward a non-Trump Republican, it’s probably the SLC area, in part because many of the surrounding counties already shifted Republican once they saw Trump govern as a loyal conservative. Those which swung further away from Trump, even once the “novelty” wore off are unlikely to come rushing back to someone who tries to channel Trump.

I agree a lot of you’ve said here, which is why I don’t think DeSantis improves in places like Collin. I do think he improves in Houston or even Tarrant, which saw more ticket splitting (ala Cornyn’s 2020 Senate run, or Crenshaw’s numbers). Texas has a lot of voters who dislike Trump but are open to voting for another Republican.

That being said, I doubt RDS does much better in SLC. The reason why that area is shifting left is not because of anti-Trump Mormons who would vote for another Republican. Only a Spencer Cox type, who is the ultimate old school Republican who would appeal to suburbanites, could win it.

County trends tend to lag when it comes to Senate races, though. It’s some of the Obama/Trump counties still voted for Democrats at the congressional level in 2016. I don’t think Tarrant swings Republican unless they’re having a good night and improving almost everywhere.

I don’t necessarily think SLC proper will swing Republican, so much as places like Provo or Ogden, since they’ve voted much more favorably for Republicans (not just a few points) in pretty much every other election.

Tarrant has more old-school white suburbanites (think boomers), working class voters, and Hispanics, whereas Collin has more college educated voters (it is 50% college educated, whereas Tarrant is like 33% college educated), techbros, millennial suburbanites, and Asians.

This doesn’t mean that Tarrant doesn’t have college educated voters, millennial suburbanites, techbros, etc, or vice versa. But Tarrant is less influenced by those types of voters than Collin is and will eventually be, which is why I think Republicans have more room to gain in Tarrant than in Collin, ironically.

[Real Texan Politics]

If Collin goes republican in 2024, that's the last hoorah for republicans there. It will flip in 2028 and stay permablue like Orange County (or Hays, Fort Bend, and Harris if we're talking Texas).

[Schiff for Senate]

So which of these metro areas would DeSantis do better than Trump in for sure:

The WOW Counties

Houston

Phoenix

Virginia Beach

The DFW area

Las Vegas

Salt Lake City

Orange County

Miami-Dade (interesting one)

The Philly suburbs

Riverside

Oklahoma City

One by one:

DeSantis will outperform Trump in WOW - it's Wisconsin's most Republican region and trended very slightly leftward (if at all) prior to Trump. Even in the Trump years, it only shifted slightly leftward and remains quite Republican for a suburban area.

The Houston 'burbs have shifted leftward due to Trump quite rapidly. I can imagine some snapback. It would depend on how much Houston (and its suburbs) expands and diversify by 2024, as well as how much DeSantis ties himself to Trump. Overall, this one's a tossup.

The same for Houston applies to Phoenix.

Virginia Beach can be ignored - who even cares? WOW, Houston and Phoenix make sense since WI; TX; and AZ are swing states, but VA is pretty blue at this point, and Virginia Beach shifting a few points in either direction won't change the overall outcome in the state.

Dallas-Fort Worth is similar to Houston. It would depend on its growth/diversification, and also on how much Trump is an issue in this campaign (if he is, DeSantis would probably need to tie himself to Trump to win the base).

Las Vegas will trend leftward, and DeSantis will underperform Trump.

Salt Lake City would trend rightward, I'd say. Romneyesque Mormons in Utah were quite principled in their opposition to Trump and Trump did very badly for a Republican across UT, in 2016 because of McMullin and in 2020 because Mormons weren't impressed by his offensive rhetoric (which, might I add, the rest of the religious right tolerated, defended and ignored for their pro-life judges). Assuming DeSantis doesn't suffer an Access Hollywood type scandal and no Utahn Mormon conservative runs as an independent, DeSantis should pick up on Trump's performance on a lot - probably he can't restore it to Romney 2012 standards (Romney was basically a favourite son in Utah), but he can certainly overperform Trump, even in what some here abbreviate SLC. That's my guess, but it's hard to be sure without any reference point. Trump underperforming Romney in the area was a combination of urbanization, diversification and liberalisation in SLC, the fact that Romney was hugely popular in Salt Lake City, the fact that Trump was disliked by Mormons across the state, and the fact that (though this wasn't especially relevant in 2020) McMullin ran. It depends on what was the bigger factor - urbanisation and liberalization, or the Romney influence / the dislike of Trump. If the former was a bigger factor which outweighs the latter, then I think SLC could stay stable or even shift leftward. On the other hand, if the latter's the bigger factor and it outweighs the former (as is very possibly the case), then Salt Lake City/County could actually head rightward.

Orange County is hard to guess but I'm going to go with it trends leftward. The blue shift in the area predated Trump, and it will continue into 2024, probably enough to counterract moderate, Romney/Biden suburbanites in the county who didn't like Trump but generally support the GOP. In any case, it's unclear how many of them actually would be willing to support the GOP anymore, given that it's largely a Trump cult at this point.

Miami-Dade is tricky, of course. Trump made dramatic and shocking gains their in 2020, but DeSantis would enjoy a favourite son effect. I'm not sure how much rightward DeSantis can make it shift but a rightward shift itself isn't out of the question. It depends largely on whether or not Hispanics in Southeast Florida will revert to the Democrats or stay red, or some combo. If they revert, it could (depending on how many revert and how many stay red) very possibly go leftward. If enough stay red, and those going blue again are outnumbered by Biden voters who like DeSantis, then it could go back leftward. Pay close attention to the 2022 gubernatorial election in Miami-Dade County to guage how Hispanics are trending and how popular DeSantis is - it could help to forsee how 2024 will be like in the area.

The Philadelphia suburbs. They could go either way, but they'll probably not shift much in either direction. Maybe slightly rightward, maybe slightly leftward. See how the 2022 senate election is in the area - if it's redder than it was in 2020, the answer for 2024 is probably rightward; if it's bluer than it was in 2020, the answer for 2024 is likely leftward.

Riverside - who knows? who even cares?

Oklahoma City, lastly, is complex. I'll be treating the Oklahoma City metropolitan area as, simply, Oklahoma County (similar to how the SLC metro area became Salt Lake County). OKC shifted very slightly leftward (0.2 points!) in 2012 after moving dramatically leftward in 2020. It's fair to say the area is generally moving leftward. On the other hand, OKC has enough suburbanite moderate Romney/Biden voters who I'd imagine would be inclined to support a Republican who isn't Trump. I'd further wager that such voters would probably outweigh voters who're just 'going with the flow' and will be voting blue in 2024 after supporting Trump. If they had to make the transition, they could jump on the Trump/Biden train in 2020 itself. And OKC isn't seeing any dramatic or explosive growth or anything - yes, it grew, but not by much. So I'm going to say that if he runs a decent campaign, DeSantis can very possibly do better than Trump in Oklahoma County. Don't hold your breath on it flipping blue in 2024.

[THG]

So which of these metro areas would DeSantis do better than Trump in for sure:

The WOW Counties

Houston

Phoenix

Virginia Beach

The DFW area

Las Vegas

Salt Lake City

Orange County

Miami-Dade (interesting one)

The Philly suburbs

Riverside

Oklahoma City

One by one:

DeSantis will outperform Trump in WOW - it's Wisconsin's most Republican region and trended very slightly leftward (if at all) prior to Trump. Even in the Trump years, it only shifted slightly leftward and remains quite Republican for a suburban area.

The Houston 'burbs have shifted leftward due to Trump quite rapidly. I can imagine some snapback. It would depend on how much Houston (and its suburbs) expands and diversify by 2024, as well as how much DeSantis ties himself to Trump. Overall, this one's a tossup.

The same for Houston applies to Phoenix.

Virginia Beach can be ignored - who even cares? WOW, Houston and Phoenix make sense since WI; TX; and AZ are swing states, but VA is pretty blue at this point, and Virginia Beach shifting a few points in either direction won't change the overall outcome in the state.

Dallas-Fort Worth is similar to Houston. It would depend on its growth/diversification, and also on how much Trump is an issue in this campaign (if he is, DeSantis would probably need to tie himself to Trump to win the base).

Las Vegas will trend leftward, and DeSantis will underperform Trump.

Salt Lake City would trend rightward, I'd say. Romneyesque Mormons in Utah were quite principled in their opposition to Trump and Trump did very badly for a Republican across UT, in 2016 because of McMullin and in 2020 because Mormons weren't impressed by his offensive rhetoric (which, might I add, the rest of the religious right tolerated, defended and ignored for their pro-life judges). Assuming DeSantis doesn't suffer an Access Hollywood type scandal and no Utahn Mormon conservative runs as an independent, DeSantis should pick up on Trump's performance on a lot - probably he can't restore it to Romney 2012 standards (Romney was basically a favourite son in Utah), but he can certainly overperform Trump, even in what some here abbreviate SLC. That's my guess, but it's hard to be sure without any reference point. Trump underperforming Romney in the area was a combination of urbanization, diversification and liberalisation in SLC, the fact that Romney was hugely popular in Salt Lake City, the fact that Trump was disliked by Mormons across the state, and the fact that (though this wasn't especially relevant in 2020) McMullin ran. It depends on what was the bigger factor - urbanisation and liberalization, or the Romney influence / the dislike of Trump. If the former was a bigger factor which outweighs the latter, then I think SLC could stay stable or even shift leftward. On the other hand, if the latter's the bigger factor and it outweighs the former (as is very possibly the case), then Salt Lake City/County could actually head rightward.

Orange County is hard to guess but I'm going to go with it trends leftward. The blue shift in the area predated Trump, and it will continue into 2024, probably enough to counterract moderate, Romney/Biden suburbanites in the county who didn't like Trump but generally support the GOP. In any case, it's unclear how many of them actually would be willing to support the GOP anymore, given that it's largely a Trump cult at this point.

Miami-Dade is tricky, of course. Trump made dramatic and shocking gains their in 2020, but DeSantis would enjoy a favourite son effect. I'm not sure how much rightward DeSantis can make it shift but a rightward shift itself isn't out of the question. It depends largely on whether or not Hispanics in Southeast Florida will revert to the Democrats or stay red, or some combo. If they revert, it could (depending on how many revert and how many stay red) very possibly go leftward. If enough stay red, and those going blue again are outnumbered by Biden voters who like DeSantis, then it could go back leftward. Pay close attention to the 2022 gubernatorial election in Miami-Dade County to guage how Hispanics are trending and how popular DeSantis is - it could help to forsee how 2024 will be like in the area.

The Philadelphia suburbs. They could go either way, but they'll probably not shift much in either direction. Maybe slightly rightward, maybe slightly leftward. See how the 2022 senate election is in the area - if it's redder than it was in 2020, the answer for 2024 is probably rightward; if it's bluer than it was in 2020, the answer for 2024 is likely leftward.

Riverside - who knows? who even cares?

Oklahoma City, lastly, is complex. I'll be treating the Oklahoma City metropolitan area as, simply, Oklahoma County (similar to how the SLC metro area became Salt Lake County). OKC shifted very slightly leftward (0.2 points!) in 2012 after moving dramatically leftward in 2020. It's fair to say the area is generally moving leftward. On the other hand, OKC has enough suburbanite moderate Romney/Biden voters who I'd imagine would be inclined to support a Republican who isn't Trump. I'd further wager that such voters would probably outweigh voters who're just 'going with the flow' and will be voting blue in 2024 after supporting Trump. If they had to make the transition, they could jump on the Trump/Biden train in 2020 itself. And OKC isn't seeing any dramatic or explosive growth or anything - yes, it grew, but not by much. So I'm going to say that if he runs a decent campaign, DeSantis can very possibly do better than Trump in Oklahoma County. Don't hold your breath on it flipping blue in 2024.

I disagree on Las Vegas heavily (it is trending rightward) and I think SLC is trending leftwards due to urbanization and liberalization.

Other than that, I generally agree.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Maybe all of them. Most of those places fit a pattern of swinging in the same direction in the last 4 elections (Bush/Obama/Romney/Clinton/Biden) because there's a certain demographic in those areas that decides things. The only metros that have not fit in the pattern are Las Vegas, Oklahoma City, Miami-Dade, and SLC depending on how people define the metro area. The answer could also be none of them. I don't expect there to be a large split though.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lol at no one giving a s**t about Riverside in this thread

#InlandEmpireMatters

[Rjjr77]

Better in the suburbs, worse in cities proper. Biden or Harris likely improves minority percentages against DeSantis.

I don’t see either of them improving among minorities, be it Trump or DeSantis. Biden or especially Harris would probably also do worse with Hispanic voters in 2024.

I highly doubt they would take hispanic voters for granted again.

Hispanic voters are not a monolith, they have many different cultures and beliefs. Political consultants who continue to eye them as a single pot will continue to fail to understand them. In recent times republicans have done a better job identifying targeted groups within the whole of the "hispanic" voter population.

[Schiff for Senate]

“Do you want DeSantis to win the election?”

In all seriousness, while there are some voters who disliked Trump but would be open to a different Republican (though not necessarily DeSantis), #NeverTrumpers are not the only reason many of these areas trended Democratic. Counties like Collin which are growing very fast and gaining voters who are unlikely to vote Republican as a whole are not going to reverse their trend because Trump is off the ballot. If there’s one area that is likely to shift toward a non-Trump Republican, it’s probably the SLC area, in part because many of the surrounding counties already shifted Republican once they saw Trump govern as a loyal conservative. Those which swung further away from Trump, even once the “novelty” wore off are unlikely to come rushing back to someone who tries to channel Trump.

I agree a lot of you’ve said here, which is why I don’t think DeSantis improves in places like Collin. I do think he improves in Houston or even Tarrant, which saw more ticket splitting (ala Cornyn’s 2020 Senate run, or Crenshaw’s numbers). Texas has a lot of voters who dislike Trump but are open to voting for another Republican.

That being said, I doubt RDS does much better in SLC. The reason why that area is shifting left is not because of anti-Trump Mormons who would vote for another Republican. Even Spencer Cox, who is the ultimate RINO Republican who would appeal to suburbanites, lost it in 2020.

Even in Collin, Cornyn and Van Taylor ran ahead of Trump by sizable margins.

Cornyn is the converse of Cruz - he's pretty popular in TX, even for a Republican. He outdistanced Trump by a pretty good amount in TX, and even more so in suburbs.

[Real Texan Politics]

“Do you want DeSantis to win the election?”

In all seriousness, while there are some voters who disliked Trump but would be open to a different Republican (though not necessarily DeSantis), #NeverTrumpers are not the only reason many of these areas trended Democratic. Counties like Collin which are growing very fast and gaining voters who are unlikely to vote Republican as a whole are not going to reverse their trend because Trump is off the ballot. If there’s one area that is likely to shift toward a non-Trump Republican, it’s probably the SLC area, in part because many of the surrounding counties already shifted Republican once they saw Trump govern as a loyal conservative. Those which swung further away from Trump, even once the “novelty” wore off are unlikely to come rushing back to someone who tries to channel Trump.

I agree a lot of you’ve said here, which is why I don’t think DeSantis improves in places like Collin. I do think he improves in Houston or even Tarrant, which saw more ticket splitting (ala Cornyn’s 2020 Senate run, or Crenshaw’s numbers). Texas has a lot of voters who dislike Trump but are open to voting for another Republican.

That being said, I doubt RDS does much better in SLC. The reason why that area is shifting left is not because of anti-Trump Mormons who would vote for another Republican. Even Spencer Cox, who is the ultimate RINO Republican who would appeal to suburbanites, lost it in 2020.

Even in Collin, Cornyn and Van Taylor ran ahead of Trump by sizable margins.

Cornyn is the converse of Cruz - he's pretty popular in TX, even for a Republican. He outdistanced Trump by a pretty good amount in TX, and even more so in suburbs.

I think DeSantis would do better than Trump but worse than Cornyn. If he wins Collin, it's by 5 at best, maybe 6 on a really good day.