I don't buy for a second that this is the least likely R flip, and I think it's more likely to flip before AZ than after GA/NV. It's not the case that Sununu has nowhere to go but down and Brnovich/Laxalt/Walker have nowhere to go but up. Sununu might be a fake moderate, but it's not like that matters to voters, especially given Hassan's favorability ratings are much worse than Masto's. Sticking with my prediction of a 52/48 Senate with AZ/NH flipping and GA/NV holding for the Democrats for now.
VA — Biden +10 — gubernatorial race — "Likely/Safe D, McAuliffe's got this in the bag and it’s delusional to pretend that VA is still winnable for Republicans. Ignore the polling and start paying attention to the fundamentals and the state's partisan lean."
NH — Biden +8 — federal race — "Tilt/Lean R, Hassan is definitely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and there’s no way this doesn’t flip before NV [Biden +2]/GA [Biden +<0.5]/AZ [Biden +<0.5]."
First of all, I’ve talked in detail about the problems of drawing conclusions from one election. Not going to address that again. Second of all, Sununu is not a generic Republican, as I’ve also said many times. He won re-election in a landslide at that same time as Biden won the state. Obviously I expect him to lose a substantial number of the crossover votes he got in 2020, but he’s not going to perform at generic R levels unless Hassan does a very effective hatchet job against him early on. If Sandoval were to jump into NV-SEN, that would obviously dramatically change that race as well. Also, I didn’t say that there was “no way” it votes left of the other vulnerable Democratic seats, I said that this was less likely than it voting (a bit) right of them, though I do think AZ is still a bit more likely to flip.
Is it ridiculous to rate GA-SEN differently from NC-SEN? Or was it blatantly wrong to even suggest that Nelson could be more vulnerable than Baldwin/Casey in 2018? Different states with different dynamics, even if they only voted 2.6% apart in 2020.
