Charlie Cook at it again

[Whacker77]

According to a link provided in another thread, Charlie Cook stated yesterday that Democrats are set to gain 15-25 seats in the House.  Hmmmm.  He went on to state that regardless of recent polls, he sees no real movement towards the Republicans.  Hmmmm.  Most amazingly though, he claimed that Democrats have more money than Republicans.  Sorry, but that's wrong.  While the Democrat Senate committee has more money, all other party registries give the Republicans a 120 million dollar advantage.

Now let's get serious.  Things don't look good for Republicans.  Even under a best case scenario, they're going to lose some seats.  Still, I don't think anyone who posts here can honestly say that there has not been real movement towards the Republicans.  Does that mean the race is over, no.  Still, the unreliable "generic number" has moved towards the Republicans and it should start to be seen in the individual races in the coming weeks.  That assumes nothing changes the trajectory of things.

[Sam Spade]

IMO, 15 is about where it's at right now, all told, plus or minus 2 or 3 seats.  You'll notice that in my prediction.

25 is where it would be if we got some type of decent "wave" occurring in the next six weeks.

A huge wave could make it bigger, but I don't see that happening at present.

I hope that I'm interpreting Cook correctly, but I'm probably not.

[poughies]

As I said in another thread, I don't buy generic ballots either way. If u look at individual race polling, it is clear that the Democrats at this point would gain 13 to 17 seats. Which side of that? WEll that's a big question.

[Deano963]

  Still, I don't think anyone who posts here can honestly say that there has not been real movement towards the Republicans. 

Ummmm......I'll honestly say it:

"There has not been any real movement towards the republicans." - Deano963, 8:58 pm, Sept. 26, 2006

If you think the republicans are gaining somewhere specifically or nationally, well, I don't know where the heck you are getting your info from, but it's dead wrong.

Oh, and when he says that the Dems have more money, he is probably including the $40 million the AFL-CIO is spending, the $20 million that the (crap, I can't think of it now) well, that OTHER huge union is spending, and the $25 million that the September Fund is spending, and all of the 527's like MoveOn and Americans United for Change. I'm sure that Charlie Cook knows that the Repub national committees have more COH if all of us do.

[ATFFL]

Carville's Democracy Corp disagrees with you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He has VA and TN moved to tossups, and I doubt both of them are tossups at the sametime he say that the dems are going to win no more than 4 seats, OH, PA, MT, and RI. I wouldn't put much into this.

[poughies]

DEMS BIG GAINS!

Wait five seconds later-

REPUBLICANS HOLD!

Five seconds later-

TOSSUP!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the Dems could win the House and or the Senate but it ain't going to be by wide margin, each individual seat is going to contested and go down to the wire.  The country has been to evenly divided for the seats to be blowouts and this even includes PA senate.

[MarkWarner08]

DEMS BIG GAINS!

Wait five seconds later-

REPUBLICANS HOLD!

Five seconds later-

TOSSUP!

Read this article: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/09/what-to-expect-over-next-seven-weeks.html

[Eraserhead]

TN is a tossup. VA could be very soon.