The year is 2088. What happened? (Ignore 2016 EV's)

[Vice President Christian Man]

For context: The main swing states are Texas (Must-win state), Montana (though it rarely flips and has a slight Dem advantage), Mississippi, Illinois, Louisiana (though it rarely flips and has a Dem. advantage), Florida (the most unpredictable state between Dem-leaning climate voters and Midwest/Northeast Rep-leaning retirees), and Rhode Island (Usually stays Dem but flipped during this cycle). Alabama can be competitive but usually stays within a few % of flipping to the Dems, while New Hampshire can be competitive but usually stays within a few % of flipping to the Reps. Idaho and Montana are both prone to large swings in either direction, and although Idaho can be close to flipping to the Dems in a good year, it has remained a lean-Republican state, with Reps. usually winning it by double-digits. Minnesota, New Jersey, and Connecticut can be competitive during strong Dem. years, but are usually Republican strongholds, particularly Minnesota. Sea-level rise also devastated much of Hawaii, leaving who is left on it to vote Dem at DC levels.

[GregTheGreat657]

African Americans now constitute a majority of electoral for most of the Coastal South (save for Florida) and Mormons are now are mostly Democrats. Blue collar whites continue trending to the GOP, although at a snail's pace.

[CadetCashBoi]

bold of you to think Florida will still exist then.

[Agonized-Statism]

Texas became a bellwether state in one of the next few elections and remains so because it's too many electoral votes to concede, like New York in the 19th century. The same is true for Florida to a lesser extent, where Venezuelan immigrants wound up amplifying the Cuban Republican vote. Climate change hasn't been absolutely apocalyptic, but it's happening, and it's been particularly bad in the dried-up West save for Idaho and its new wine country. The Great Plains are troubled and would have flipped too, but they had a very negative reaction to attempted Buffalo Commons legislation. Democrats dominated elections for a time, but that era's gone, and more moderate but protectionist Republicans have successfully brought domestic manufacturing back to the Rust Belt, a renewal helped along by the construction of high-speed rail lines during Democrat administrations. An initial wave of climate refugees, mostly international but some from the West, hold New York and parts of New England back from flipping.

[Vice President Christian Man]

bold of you to think Florida will still exist then.

I think that all of The Keys and most of South Florida would be uninhabitable, as well as the portions of the panhandle, although not necessarily submerged. I anticipate that some areas across central/north Florida would still exist, particularly away from the ocean.

[JoeSchmoe]

Will Indiana have gone to a Democrat again between now and 2088? LOL

[Skill and Chance]

1. More Religious Left + More Libertine Right
2. Climate Change
3. Millennial/Zoomer Retirees (they must like mountains a lot more than Boomer retirees because of #2)

[Vice President Christian Man]

Will Indiana have gone to a Democrat again between now and 2088? LOL

Perhaps in a landslide, but I'd argue that Indiana is more conservative now than it was in 2008. While Dems have gained in urban areas, not even Obama was able to win most of the rural areas of the state that Bill Clinton managed to win which is culturally and politically closer to Kentucky than the rest of The Midwest. Barring a demographic shift or unexpected realignment, I see Indiana becoming more Republican if The Rust Belt Strategy is proven to be effective. The only plausible way I can see Indiana flipping besides the first two reasons or climate change, is if Biden or another Dem. president is able to revive The Rust Belt economy, but even still it seems like it would be a purple state at best. During the early-mid 20th century when barring The Great Depression and The Rust Belt was booming, Indiana was a red state outside of 400+ E.C. landslides, which I doubt a 400 E.C. landslide on either end is possible, given how politically divided and partisan we've become as a country. Also, Indiana hasn't changed significantly demographically since then, although it is no longer the bastion of racism it was during the 1920's. You have to go back to the 19th century to find a purple Indiana, and that was mostly because it lacked the manufacturing hubs that the other Midwest states had. Even with its level of conservatism outside of the Southern areas of the state, it votes similarly to rural areas of Illinois and Ohio, it just doesn't have as many cities and Indianapolis isn't enough for the state to become competitive. Maybe by 2088 Indianapolis could grow into a Chicago or Detroit, but I don't see that happening.

[bagelman]

Your map without EV's:

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine this forum still being around in 2088 and someone not yet born bumping this thread. For sure that would be hilarious; though I'd have to live to 100 to see it happening. Lol.

[Chips]

Imagine this forum still being around in 2088 and someone not yet born bumping this thread. For sure that would be hilarious; though I'd have to live to 100 to see it happening. Lol.

I'd be 111.

[Chips]

Anyway, coalition changes.