When do you think we'll know all of the districts for 2022 midterms by?

[Thank you for being a friend...]

How late is it legally allowed to go until?  Like can a state draw up the district the day before the primary?

Also what states are expected to be the first ones with the new maps so that us political junkies can have a good time pouring over new data?

[Meatball Ron]

Maine, Nebraska, and Oregon have already finalized their maps.

Colorado's are very far along.

And several more states have early proposals out.

You can track each state's map progress as well as the deadline at this link.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/oregon/

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

[Meatball Ron]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

[Non Swing Voter]

meanwhile Virginia's beautiful new bipartisan commission "surprisingly" deadlocked, getting nowhere!  I don't know how anybody could have seen that coming with 4 dems 4 GOP 4 Dem citizens and 4 GOP citizens.  You'd think with such bipartisanship this would breeze through.

[smoltchanov]

How late is it legally allowed to go until?  Like can a state draw up the district the day before the primary?

Day before primary - no, filing deadline is, usually, at least month before it. Day before filing date - theoretically possible...

[Progressive Pessimist]

meanwhile Virginia's beautiful new bipartisan commission "surprisingly" deadlocked, getting nowhere!  I don't know how anybody could have seen that coming with 4 dems 4 GOP 4 Dem citizens and 4 GOP citizens.  You'd think with such bipartisanship this would breeze through.

Even back when I championed gerrymandering reform instead of favoring Democrats to play as dirty and partisan as Republicans do, I thought bipartisan commissions were a terrible idea. Nonpartisan ones are probably better even though I don't believe "nonpartisanship" truly exists.

Does Virginia not have a tiebreaker though? We have that in New Jersey to make our bipartisan commission at least somewhat more functional.

[Schiff for Senate]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

[Meatball Ron]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

I don't think I ever implied that. If I did, I certainly didn't mean to. I have no concern about the Dems losing this seat. I just think Schraeder would opt to run in the "more competitive" seat (which, relative to the Biden +13 OR-06, it is) since it makes his life easier in the primary (also, he lives in the new OR-05 even though the new OR-06 has a higher % of his current constituency).

[S019]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

Ehhhh I'd be careful about this, midterms can be tricky times and we've seen parties lose far friendlier seats in recent midterms (NM-02 and NY-22 were D flips of deep red seats in 2018 and in 2010, Republicans flipped IL-10, a very blue seat in northern Illinois, and Solomon Ortiz also lost his deep blue RGV seat). Currently I think 2022 will be around R+4 or so, so considering that the Presidential PV was D+4.5, I'd say seats that voted for Biden by 8 or 9 could easily become tossups in 2022, as could far bluer seats.

[Roll Roons]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

Ehhhh I'd be careful about this, midterms can be tricky times and we've seen parties lose far friendlier seats in recent midterms (NM-02 and NY-22 were D flips of deep red seats in 2018 and in 2010, Republicans flipped IL-10, a very blue seat in northern Illinois, and Solomon Ortiz also lost his deep blue RGV seat). Currently I think 2022 will be around R+4 or so, so considering that the Presidential PV was D+4.5, I'd say seats that voted for Biden by 8 or 9 could easily become tossups in 2022, as could far bluer seats.

Bob winning IL-10 that year was actually a GOP hold. Mark Kirk was the incumbent but he ran for (and won!) Obama's Senate seat.

[S019]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

Ehhhh I'd be careful about this, midterms can be tricky times and we've seen parties lose far friendlier seats in recent midterms (NM-02 and NY-22 were D flips of deep red seats in 2018 and in 2010, Republicans flipped IL-10, a very blue seat in northern Illinois, and Solomon Ortiz also lost his deep blue RGV seat). Currently I think 2022 will be around R+4 or so, so considering that the Presidential PV was D+4.5, I'd say seats that voted for Biden by 8 or 9 could easily become tossups in 2022, as could far bluer seats.

Bob winning IL-10 that year was actually a GOP hold. Mark Kirk was the incumbent but he ran for (and won!) Obama's Senate seat.

Ugh, I meant the seat that Melissa Bean lost, I guess IL-10 still works for 2014 though

[Schiff for Senate]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

I don't think I ever implied that. If I did, I certainly didn't mean to. I have no concern about the Dems losing this seat. I just think Schraeder would opt to run in the "more competitive" seat (which, relative to the Biden +13 OR-06, it is) since it makes his life easier in the primary (also, he lives in the new OR-05 even though the new OR-06 has a higher % of his current constituency).

Fair enough, but I don't think voters much care about, and I don't think Schrader is much safer in a primary by, the fact that his district gets one point redder. I don't think voters are that analytical, particularly not about a one point shift to the right in a still-blue district. So I don't think it has much bearing on Schrader's chances in the 2022 primaries. Not saying he'll lose but no one should think he's any safer because of redistricting in the primary. That would have been the case had his district shifted to the right by, say, 5 or 6 points, in which case it could arguably be considered competitive in 2022 and voters may have an impetus to support a moderate who is 'electable,' but any Democrat who opposed Schrader when his district was Biden+10 should oppose Schrader equally and no less now that his district is 'just' Biden+9. Still uncompetitive. Honestly, maybe Talk Elections posters are analytical enough for this change to change their views on a primary challenge on Schrader, but I don't think most primary voters will care much about the change.

What may matter more is the fact that his district is in new turf. It's possible he's actually more vulnerable since's not very well known in this version of OR05 - as you said, OR06 has a larger percentage of the old OR05's population, and thus may be somewhat less immun,e and somewhat more susceptible, to a primary challenge.

[Schiff for Senate]

Does anyone know the 2020 presidential vote in the new OR-6?

Biden +13

But OR-05 moves from Biden +10 to Biden +9. That is likely where Schraeder runs, since he's used to winning in a swing district and he faces less trouble in a primary in a more moderate district.

The real change is OR-04 going from Biden +4 to Biden +13, insulating DeFazio from the WWC trend.

Source: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1443221315146633221

Neither Biden+10 nor Biden+9 remotely indicate that the district is somehow competitive in 2022, and a one point shift to the right is never something to worry about unless the district is within five points for either party before or after the shift. Biden+4, admittedly, might be some cause for concern, though I think DeFazio'd be popular enough to hang on in 2022 in the previous iteration of the district, and yes, Biden+13 just makes DeFazio's district safely Democratic for the time being.

Ehhhh I'd be careful about this, midterms can be tricky times and we've seen parties lose far friendlier seats in recent midterms (NM-02 and NY-22 were D flips of deep red seats in 2018 and in 2010, Republicans flipped IL-10, a very blue seat in northern Illinois, and Solomon Ortiz also lost his deep blue RGV seat). Currently I think 2022 will be around R+4 or so, so considering that the Presidential PV was D+4.5, I'd say seats that voted for Biden by 8 or 9 could easily become tossups in 2022, as could far bluer seats.

Bob winning IL-10 that year was actually a GOP hold. Mark Kirk was the incumbent but he ran for (and won!) Obama's Senate seat.

Ugh, I meant the seat that Melissa Bean lost, I guess IL-10 still works for 2014 though

Yeah, but I don't think most voters will really care about a one-point rightward swing. What probably matters more is that the new OR05 is geographically different from the old OR05, so Schrader may be less known to the primary voters, and they may not appreciate him and his centrism as much, so he might actually be weaker in the primaries.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly while Schrader is probably favored in a Biden+9 seat, he is by no means safe. Go ask Dan Donovan or Steve Russell how that worked out for them.

[Meatball Ron]

Fair enough, but I don't think voters much care about, and I don't think Schrader is much safer in a primary by, the fact that his district gets one point redder. I don't think voters are that analytical, particularly not about a one point shift to the right in a still-blue district. So I don't think it has much bearing on Schrader's chances in the 2022 primaries. Not saying he'll lose but no one should think he's any safer because of redistricting in the primary. That would have been the case had his district shifted to the right by, say, 5 or 6 points, in which case it could arguably be considered competitive in 2022 and voters may have an impetus to support a moderate who is 'electable,' but any Democrat who opposed Schrader when his district was Biden+10 should oppose Schrader equally and no less now that his district is 'just' Biden+9. Still uncompetitive. Honestly, maybe Talk Elections posters are analytical enough for this change to change their views on a primary challenge on Schrader, but I don't think most primary voters will care much about the change.

What may matter more is the fact that his district is in new turf. It's possible he's actually more vulnerable since's not very well known in this version of OR05 - as you said, OR06 has a larger percentage of the old OR05's population, and thus may be somewhat less immun,e and somewhat more susceptible, to a primary challenge.

Sorry, you misunderstood me on two fronts:

1. I wasn't comparing Schraeder's old district to his new district (one point shift right, as you pointed out). I was comparing the new OR-05 to the new OR-06 (the former being 4 points to the right of the latter).

2. I wasn't suggesting Schraeder will do better in the primary because "voters are analytical and will realize that they're in a more competitive district so they should stick with Schraeder." I agree that is a ridiculous notion. I simply meant, by virtue of being in a more *moderate* district ideologically, he'll have an easier time in the primary (b/c voters are closer to his views).

In any case, I may have overstated the extent to which #2 matters. I don't think Schraeder's primary chances are THAT different in OR-05 versus OR-06, and the main reason why I suspect he'll run in OR-05 has to do with a) his hometown being there b) more declared primary opponents in OR-06 than OR-05

[Schiff for Senate]

Fair enough, but I don't think voters much care about, and I don't think Schrader is much safer in a primary by, the fact that his district gets one point redder. I don't think voters are that analytical, particularly not about a one point shift to the right in a still-blue district. So I don't think it has much bearing on Schrader's chances in the 2022 primaries. Not saying he'll lose but no one should think he's any safer because of redistricting in the primary. That would have been the case had his district shifted to the right by, say, 5 or 6 points, in which case it could arguably be considered competitive in 2022 and voters may have an impetus to support a moderate who is 'electable,' but any Democrat who opposed Schrader when his district was Biden+10 should oppose Schrader equally and no less now that his district is 'just' Biden+9. Still uncompetitive. Honestly, maybe Talk Elections posters are analytical enough for this change to change their views on a primary challenge on Schrader, but I don't think most primary voters will care much about the change.

What may matter more is the fact that his district is in new turf. It's possible he's actually more vulnerable since's not very well known in this version of OR05 - as you said, OR06 has a larger percentage of the old OR05's population, and thus may be somewhat less immun,e and somewhat more susceptible, to a primary challenge.

Sorry, you misunderstood me on two fronts:

1. I wasn't comparing Schraeder's old district to his new district (one point shift right, as you pointed out). I was comparing the new OR-05 to the new OR-06 (the former being 4 points to the right of the latter).

2. I wasn't suggesting Schraeder will do better in the primary because "voters are analytical and will realize that they're in a more competitive district so they should stick with Schraeder." I agree that is a ridiculous notion. I simply meant, by virtue of being in a more *moderate* district ideologically, he'll have an easier time in the primary (b/c voters are closer to his views).

In any case, I may have overstated the extent to which #2 matters. I don't think Schraeder's primary chances are THAT different in OR-05 versus OR-06, and the main reason why I suspect he'll run in OR-05 has to do with a) his hometown being there b) more declared primary opponents in OR-06 than OR-05

Ah, well, that makes more sense. My main point is that I think Schrader will still be winning reelection, and based on what you wrote, I think you agree with me on that front.

[Meatball Ron]

Fair enough, but I don't think voters much care about, and I don't think Schrader is much safer in a primary by, the fact that his district gets one point redder. I don't think voters are that analytical, particularly not about a one point shift to the right in a still-blue district. So I don't think it has much bearing on Schrader's chances in the 2022 primaries. Not saying he'll lose but no one should think he's any safer because of redistricting in the primary. That would have been the case had his district shifted to the right by, say, 5 or 6 points, in which case it could arguably be considered competitive in 2022 and voters may have an impetus to support a moderate who is 'electable,' but any Democrat who opposed Schrader when his district was Biden+10 should oppose Schrader equally and no less now that his district is 'just' Biden+9. Still uncompetitive. Honestly, maybe Talk Elections posters are analytical enough for this change to change their views on a primary challenge on Schrader, but I don't think most primary voters will care much about the change.

What may matter more is the fact that his district is in new turf. It's possible he's actually more vulnerable since's not very well known in this version of OR05 - as you said, OR06 has a larger percentage of the old OR05's population, and thus may be somewhat less immun,e and somewhat more susceptible, to a primary challenge.

Sorry, you misunderstood me on two fronts:

1. I wasn't comparing Schraeder's old district to his new district (one point shift right, as you pointed out). I was comparing the new OR-05 to the new OR-06 (the former being 4 points to the right of the latter).

2. I wasn't suggesting Schraeder will do better in the primary because "voters are analytical and will realize that they're in a more competitive district so they should stick with Schraeder." I agree that is a ridiculous notion. I simply meant, by virtue of being in a more *moderate* district ideologically, he'll have an easier time in the primary (b/c voters are closer to his views).

In any case, I may have overstated the extent to which #2 matters. I don't think Schraeder's primary chances are THAT different in OR-05 versus OR-06, and the main reason why I suspect he'll run in OR-05 has to do with a) his hometown being there b) more declared primary opponents in OR-06 than OR-05

Ah, well, that makes more sense. My main point is that I think Schrader will still be winning reelection, and based on what you wrote, I think you agree with me on that front.

Yes, for sure

[vileplume]

meanwhile Virginia's beautiful new bipartisan commission "surprisingly" deadlocked, getting nowhere!  I don't know how anybody could have seen that coming with 4 dems 4 GOP 4 Dem citizens and 4 GOP citizens.  You'd think with such bipartisanship this would breeze through.

Even back when I championed gerrymandering reform instead of favoring Democrats to play as dirty and partisan as Republicans do, I thought bipartisan commissions were a terrible idea. Nonpartisan ones are probably better even though I don't believe "nonpartisanship" truly exists.

Does Virginia not have a tiebreaker though? We have that in New Jersey to make our bipartisan commission at least somewhat more functional.

Of course true non-partisanship doesn't exist but you can remove most of the bias just by having a very clearly defined set of rules about what is and isn't acceptable, appointing people who genuinely have an interest in fair governance to the commission not just nakedly partisan hacks (you are correct bi-partisan commissions are an abysmal idea for this reason), and having a mechanism to allow the electorate to have their input. In the UK the Boundary Commission get accused of bias (from both sides) all of the time but whatever bias there actually is, is nothing compared to what you get in the States. They do suggest some awful boundaries fairly frequently (mostly due to them being to inflexible in splitting large urban wards as opposed them being politically motivated) but most of these do get ironed out when they go to public consultation.

I'm not well versed on the processes other countries use to draw theirs but in most I suspect it's seen as at minimum, somewhat fair. There is a better way to draw boundaries even though you are never going to get 100% perfect or balanced (without a proportional system of course).