VA-02: What will happen to Elaine Luria?

[Woody]

She represents the district my father lives in. What will ultimately happen to her?

[beesley]

What will ultimately happen to her?

Death is inevitable

(in all seriousness, I think she'll have a fairly clsoe race as I can't see her district changing much, but it's way too early to call)

[here2view]

She did better in 2020 than 2018 (5.74% compared to 2.24%), but that's also because she ran against an incumbent in 2018 — although 2020 was a rematch vs Scott Taylor.

I'd probably say Tilt D without knowing redistricting.

[Xing]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

[Tekken_Guy]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

There's a bipartisan commission system, she's in a corner of the state, and and her district is adjacent to both VRA districts, so I don't think redistricting is likely to change much. 

I definitely think she's in better shape than Spanberger, mostly due to redistricting. 

[Vosem]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

There's a bipartisan commission system, she's in a corner of the state, and and her district is adjacent to both VRA districts, so I don't think redistricting is likely to change much. 

I definitely think she's in better shape than Spanberger, mostly due to redistricting. 

Redistricting was given over to the state Supreme Court, which has a large conservative majority in Virginia (literally all Republican appointees). This seat is expected to get significantly more Republican (on the example map I've seen, it was a Gillespie '17 seat, though I think suburban trends are strong enough here that it might still have been Biden '20 by the skin of its teeth), and I don't think Kiggans is going to have much of a problem taking the seat and holding it, though she'll be vulnerable in a future Democratic wave.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

There's a bipartisan commission system, she's in a corner of the state, and and her district is adjacent to both VRA districts, so I don't think redistricting is likely to change much. 

I definitely think she's in better shape than Spanberger, mostly due to redistricting. 

Redistricting was given over to the state Supreme Court, which has a large conservative majority in Virginia (literally all Republican appointees). This seat is expected to get significantly more Republican (on the example map I've seen, it was a Gillespie '17 seat, though I think suburban trends are strong enough here that it might still have been Biden '20 by the skin of its teeth), and I don't think Kiggans is going to have much of a problem taking the seat and holding it, though she'll be vulnerable in a future Democratic wave.

The State Supreme Court is highly unlikely to draw an egregious gerrymander like that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm actually not all that worried about her losing if she ends up in a similar district. Spanberger is the most vulnerable Virginia Democrat, and even then that will probably depend on redistricting too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

Kiggans just got caught plagiarizing an editorial written by Elaine Luria

Hardly the mark of a strong candidate imo.

[Non Swing Voter]

any "fair" redistricting should help Spanberger more than Luria in theory.  The three republican districts west of hers are extremely underpopulated.  So they really should, in theory, take in some of the republican areas from her district.

Had democrats not been holier than thou martyrs and kept redistricting they could have easily made her district very Dem. 

Seems like Luria's district is going to be a habitually competitive district that is dependent on who shows up to vote.  Spanberger's district and the Richmond area in general seems like one that could trend Democratic over the next 20 years.  It's becoming a lot more connected with the DC area.

[Tekken_Guy]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

Kiggans just got caught plagiarizing an editorial written by Elaine Luria

Hardly the mark of a strong candidate imo.

Ashley Hinson got into a plagiarism scandal last cycle. Voters punished her by electing her to the house.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

Kiggans will not win the primary. Mark my words.

[Tekken_Guy]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

Kiggans will not win the primary. Mark my words.

Why not? Who in the primary is capable of beating her?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I actually think Kiggans will beat Luria. She's a strong candidate who won an open State Senate seat that has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016. Plus, the 2nd doesn't seem to be moving towards Democrats quite as quickly as the 7th is, and it's still well within reach for the GOP. And the GOP lean of the year makes be see her as a slight favorite. I could easily see her being a one-term wonder, though.

Kiggans just got caught plagiarizing an editorial written by Elaine Luria

Hardly the mark of a strong candidate imo.

Ashley Hinson got into a plagiarism scandal last cycle. Voters punished her by electing her to the house.

She won despite that, not because of it.  Historically, voters have been more willing to punish politicians for plagiarism than some other types of scandals that one might expect to produce more of a backlash on paper.  Also this has already gotten more local coverage than the Hinson thing did IIRC.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

There's a bipartisan commission system, she's in a corner of the state, and and her district is adjacent to both VRA districts, so I don't think redistricting is likely to change much.  

I definitely think she's in better shape than Spanberger, mostly due to redistricting.  

Redistricting was given over to the state Supreme Court, which has a large conservative majority in Virginia (literally all Republican appointees). This seat is expected to get significantly more Republican (on the example map I've seen, it was a Gillespie '17 seat, though I think suburban trends are strong enough here that it might still have been Biden '20 by the skin of its teeth), and I don't think Kiggans is going to have much of a problem taking the seat and holding it, though she'll be vulnerable in a future Democratic wave.

No, it’s being done by a bipartisan commission.  The Court is just a backstop last resort if the legislature rejects several rounds of commission maps.  But why would the Dem-controlled legislature reject the commission’s maps if the alternative is the map being drawn by a Republican court?

[lfromnj]

Also the VA supreme court isn't that hackish even for regular decisions.

[S019]

Depends on the district, but given the trend in that area, I’d say she starts out as a modest favorite.

There's a bipartisan commission system, she's in a corner of the state, and and her district is adjacent to both VRA districts, so I don't think redistricting is likely to change much.  

I definitely think she's in better shape than Spanberger, mostly due to redistricting.  

Redistricting was given over to the state Supreme Court, which has a large conservative majority in Virginia (literally all Republican appointees). This seat is expected to get significantly more Republican (on the example map I've seen, it was a Gillespie '17 seat, though I think suburban trends are strong enough here that it might still have been Biden '20 by the skin of its teeth), and I don't think Kiggans is going to have much of a problem taking the seat and holding it, though she'll be vulnerable in a future Democratic wave.

No, it’s being done by a bipartisan commission.  The Court is just a backstop last resort if the legislature rejects several rounds of commission maps.  But why would the Dem-controlled legislature reject the commission’s maps if the alternative is the map being drawn by a Republican court?

Because the commission is done in such a way that the Republican members can reject it if they wish (same with the Democrats), it's very much a way to get the map to the heavily GOP Supreme Court