On the record - MD

[Moooooo]

I guess Ill be the next to post one of these on the record threads.

Anyway, who do you think (not want) wins?  If you want give the margin of victory.

Congressman Ben Cardin (D)

Lt. Governor Michael Steele(R)

[Moooooo]

I make this prediction with very little confidence.  Michael Steele is running one of the best campaigns in the country.

Cardin by 5

[Mike in Maryland]

I make this prediction with very little confidence.  Michael Steele is running one of the best campaigns in the country.

Cardin by 5

I roughly concur, in both who I think will win and who I want to win.  (Could be 4, or 6 points, or thereabouts.)   Steele's campaign skills should keep this competitive, but unless Cardin makes a huge mistake or the GOP overall become massively more popular he'll probably fall short.  Now, if MD were less predominantly Democratic or national opinion were running strongly in the pro-Republican direction (like in 1980, or 1994) it would be a different story.

It'll be interesting to see the vote patterns.  It's entirely possible that Steele could draw off a substantial chunk of African-American voters, though I think Republicans may be overestimating the potential for that.  Now that the nominees are determined, the contest can be reframed along party rather than personal or racial lines.  But I think that Cardin should be able to hold onto enough white Democrats and independents (some of whom have been voting for him for years) to offset that and prevail, though probably not by a wide margin.  (Then again, Steele has made his share of campaign trail gaffes which if continued could produce a big Cardin margin.)  Still, Cardin and other Dems should spend substantial time and money in African-American areas to firm up that vote in order to increase their confidence of victory.

Had Mfume been nominated, he would have held African-American voters more solidly but might well have lost a lot of white Dems and independents who would likely vote for Cardin.  I did some calculations before voting estimating how many voters of each race either Democrat would need to win (How many whites does Mfume need?  How many blacks can Cardin afford to lose?)  I figured that either would have a good chance of winning but Cardin seemed to have the somewhat easier path, as well as a lot more money to make his case (though the DSCC would likely have come through for Mfume as well, that would have diverted more $ from other competitive races.)  So after mulling it all over I finally voted for Cardin.

[Boris]

Steele has peaked, IMO.

Cardin by seven to ten points.

[poughies]

Yea, Cardin small, but not too small. Steele has great commercials, but he needs more.... Just not a good year for a republican in Maryland. If this were 94, it would be a blowout Steele. Otherwise, Cardin has an edge.

[Smash255]

Cardin by 9, I don't think this race will be as close as some think.  Steele is VERY conservative and while he will get more African American votes than the typical Republican would, he isn't going to get th 30% he would basically ned to maake this a real tight race.  he is a good campaigner, but he is very conservative in a Democratic state.

[WalterMitty]

cardin should beat the clown by double digits.

[Keystone Phil]

Cardin by ten.

[WalterMitty]

Cardin by ten.

probably more like 12-13

[Rococo4]

Steele is running a great race.  He has a mountain to climb.  If the election was today, probably Cardin by around 8%.

[Eraserhead]

Cardin by 11. I'm assuming people figure out that Steele is actually a Republican by the time the race is held.

[Mike in Maryland]

Yea, Cardin small, but not too small. Steele has great commercials, but he needs more.... Just not a good year for a republican in Maryland. If this were 94, it would be a blowout Steele. Otherwise, Cardin has an edge.

Actually, MD is Democratic enough so that even if it were 1994 Steele probably wouldn't win in a "blowout" though he might well have won.  It would have likely been close; that year MD had a gubernatorial election between Parris Glendening (D) and Ellen Sauerbrey (R) that Glendening won in a squeaker (5000 votes or so.)

I think Steele is a (usually) good enough candidate so that there probably won't be a Cardin blowout, but unless he gets a major break or several he'll most likely come up short.

[poughies]

Yea perhaps.... I happen to think Steele is a very good candidate..... that said, I believe Cardin will win by 5-10..... Mfume better work his butt off for Cardin though I like Mfume and think he will do no less.