How would the election have gone if Biden converted to Islam, Judaism or Protestantism before it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Three separate scenarios. How would each have impacted the election?

[Motorcity]

Islam or Judaism, he loses. Badly

Protestantism? It depends. If it was in the 70s when he became a senator, probabaly no difference. In the last 10 years? It might cost him the 46k he needed to win because catholics shifted leftwards by 10%

[H. Ross Peron]

Probably little difference if he converts to a Mainline Protestant denomination, might be more controversial if Biden declares he had a "born again" experience and joins a conservative Evangelical denomination though it could potentially win him some right-wing voters.

[Schiff for Senate]

Islam or Judaism, he loses. Badly

Protestantism? It depends. If it was in the 70s when he became a senator, probabaly no difference. In the last 10 years? It might cost him the 46k he needed to win because catholics shifted leftwards by 10%

Why do you think that? I don't think many Democrats, urban voters and suburban voters (the consituencies that elected Biden in 2020) are anti-Semitic or Islamaphobic. I think it might be a problem for a GOP candidate, where much of the electorate is hostile to Muslims and/or Jews (primarily the former) - but I don't think, at least for Biden, that it would have a huge impact on his campaign, and I think he could definitely have won as a Jew and most likely as a Muslim as well. Perhaps by a smaller margin, but I don't think it would make it definite that Biden loses, and I don't see any way in which it makes him lose in a landslide.

[Schiff for Senate]

Probably little difference if he converts to a Mainline Protestant denomination, might be more controversial if Biden declares he had a "born again" experience and joins a conservative Evangelical denomination though it could potentially win him some right-wing voters.

I don't think many right-wing voters would be swung by that...if Trump's presidency has proven anything, it's that the religious right cares for nothing except pro-life judges. If that wasn't the case then they wouldn't have voted for Trump after his racist, xenophobic remarks and Access Hollywood - but they're among Trump's most loyal constituencies.

[Alben Barkley]

Probably little difference if he converts to a Mainline Protestant denomination, might be more controversial if Biden declares he had a "born again" experience and joins a conservative Evangelical denomination though it could potentially win him some right-wing voters.

The evangelicals turned on JIMMY CARTER of all people. I don’t think Biden claiming to be “born again” would sway a significant number of them.

[Motorcity]

Islam or Judaism, he loses. Badly

Protestantism? It depends. If it was in the 70s when he became a senator, probabaly no difference. In the last 10 years? It might cost him the 46k he needed to win because catholics shifted leftwards by 10%

Why do you think that? I don't think many Democrats, urban voters and suburban voters (the consituencies that elected Biden in 2020) are anti-Semitic or Islamaphobic. I think it might be a problem for a GOP candidate, where much of the electorate is hostile to Muslims and/or Jews (primarily the former) - but I don't think, at least for Biden, that it would have a huge impact on his campaign, and I think he could definitely have won as a Jew and most likely as a Muslim as well. Perhaps by a smaller margin, but I don't think it would make it definite that Biden loses, and I don't see any way in which it makes him lose in a landslide.

Biden only won by 46k votes

Biden probably swung 100k catholic voters just because he is catholic. So that alones loses the election for him

He swung about a 1-2 million surbuban voters. I figure he lose just enough religious families  to lose him that 46k

I am a Muslim-American. Second generation. Granted I live in the Bible Belt (Tennessee). But I have played with running for some local office, like country commission. But most campaigning is done in churches so I wouldn't know how to start...

[Schiff for Senate]

Islam or Judaism, he loses. Badly

Protestantism? It depends. If it was in the 70s when he became a senator, probabaly no difference. In the last 10 years? It might cost him the 46k he needed to win because catholics shifted leftwards by 10%

Why do you think that? I don't think many Democrats, urban voters and suburban voters (the consituencies that elected Biden in 2020) are anti-Semitic or Islamaphobic. I think it might be a problem for a GOP candidate, where much of the electorate is hostile to Muslims and/or Jews (primarily the former) - but I don't think, at least for Biden, that it would have a huge impact on his campaign, and I think he could definitely have won as a Jew and most likely as a Muslim as well. Perhaps by a smaller margin, but I don't think it would make it definite that Biden loses, and I don't see any way in which it makes him lose in a landslide.

Biden only won by 46k votes

Biden probably swung 100k catholic voters just because he is catholic. So that alones loses the election for him

He swung about a 1-2 million surbuban voters. I figure he lose just enough religious families  to lose him that 46k

I am a Muslim-American. Second generation. Granted I live in the Bible Belt (Tennessee). But I have played with running for some local office, like country commission. But most campaigning is done in churches so I wouldn't know how to start...

You don't need to win the popular vote to win the election, as Adams, Hayes, Harrison, Bush and Trump (all Republicans, admittedly) have proven. I think you do make a good point about Biden losing several Catholic voters, but I don't think that some Catholics changing their vote (there were just 100,000 nationally, and some would have likely voted Democratic in 2020 regardless of Biden's religion) from Democratic to Republican would necessarily flip many states...perhaps a few where the margin was narrow, like Arizona and Georgia. If it were to somehow flip AZ, GA and WI, then it would be a 269-269 tie, and the resulting runoff in the House would almost certainly result in GOP victory (because each delegation gets just one vote, giving Matt Rosendale the same power as the 53 California delegates combined). However, you yourself said there were 100,000 Catholics who flipped blue nationally. Wisconsin has an average enough population for a state - so it would have about 2,000 Trump/Biden Catholics. Let's assume that 80% of them would not have voted Democratic, and would have voted Republican, in 2020 had Biden not been a Catholic himself - 1,600 votes. That would mean that we subtract 1,600 votes from Biden in Wisconsin and give Trump those 1,600 (although realitically, some of those Catholics would have likely stayed home if Biden was not a Catholic or voted for some candidate other than Trump/Biden). This would narrow Biden's margin in raw votes in Wisconsin by 3,200 votes. Let's round that up to 7,000 votes - for anything I may have forgotten as well as some non-Catholic voters who supported Biden but may not have supported him had he been Jewish or Muslim. However, Biden's margin in raw votes was actually slightly over 20,000, so while reducing it by 7,000 votes would make the margin significantly smaller, it would not impact the overall outcome. Therefore, in Arizona and Georgia, even if shifted votes did in fact flip those two states, the Democrats would retain over 270 electoral votes (albeit less votes - just 279 instead of 306) - and with it, the election.

[Non Swing Voter]

hot take: nearly the same.  this election was about Trump not Biden.  Biden just had to not say outrageous stuff about socialism and raising taxes to win.  Some of the states he won in like Georgia had nothing to do with his religion and he barely campaigned there.  This result was baked into the electorate the minute Biden won the nomination.  This is why Trump literally got impeached trying to stop Biden from being the nominee.

[Adam Griffin]

(I'm assuming this is a recent (<5 years ago) - if not post-nomination - conversion scenario)

Plenty of bigots who are still persuadable voters exist - but virtually none are rabid activist partisans or wealthy & educated, so we never hear much about them and most campaigns never pander to them.

With that being said and as others have mentioned, Catholic devotion is the key here. The difference between being Jewish, Muslim or Protestant I think would be virtually the same in net terms: no inherent gains and all of the expected losses from the Catholic bloc (plus various additional losses from whichever types thought it was just a political conversion ploy or whatever).

WI definitely flips, PA probably does as well, and AZ/GA being as close as they were would tilt back to the GOP column very narrowly (if only because 2/3 scenarios would piss off the rural whites that arguably put Biden over the finish line in GA, and AZ is filled with old white "moderates" in general; we're talking about 1 in 800 actual Biden voters net defecting to Trump over such a situation, which is completely on-brand/within known parameters for both states).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Muslim Biden is kinda unelectable. Jewish Biden, barely any difference. Protestant Biden, practically no difference, though Biden being Catholic definitely was decisive for him in a small subsection of voters, these weren't numerous enough to flip any states by themselves.

[DCUS]

If Biden joined an evangelical Protestant denomination, he would be dead on arrival in the 2020 primary. He might have been excommunicated from his church for his liberal social views; the Catholics have already tried to do that.

Mainline doesn't matter.

Jewish doesn't matter (mostly). The increased anti-Semitic turnout might cost him Georgia, but nothing else.

Islam probably makes him lose (especially in such a close election) due to "soft" Islamophobia (similar to anti-atheism).

[DCUS]

I found this 2010 survey from Gallup:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/125312/religious-prejudice-stronger-against-muslims.aspx

Half of the respondents reported an unfavorable attitude toward Islam. That's not becoming insignificant in 10 years, even if the survey is junk (and the real number is ~30%). Muslim Biden loses.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

[UncleSam]

He loses 400 electoral votes if he converts to Islam. Maybe more.

Judaism he loses but not by that much, probably just the 2016 map but maybe Trump gets Nevada as well.

Protestantism he barely loses as long as he has a compelling story for it - he drops GA and AZ for sure, and probably also loses WI. Might be looking at a tied race in this case, tbh.