The next 2008 Indiana will come...

[RogerRogers]

When? And Where?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Rhode Island 2032

[Skill and Chance]

Republican flip of New Mexico in 2024/28 or Dem flip of Mississippi in the 2030's.  Tennessee is also a candidate for this in the 2030's, but I think it would be more like VA or GA where it happens gradually. 

[Agonized-Statism]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

MS would be more like GA where it would happen gradually and when it flips it will flip for the long run as well.

[Ferguson97]

GOP might get lucky with Minnesota in 2028/2032.

[_.]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

Interesting

Do you have the link?

As for the title question, I think Utah, Oregon, and Montana are good candidates.
Arguably this already happened with Utah in 2016.

[brucejoel99]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

Interesting

Do you have the link?

Would also love to be directed to it as well please, if at all possible!

[Proud Houstonian]

Nevada-2028

[Chips]

I made a post saying that Harris in theory could win SC or MS in 2024 if it's a great election year for the Dems and African-American turnout surges.

On the contrary, I said Tim Scott could win Virginia if it's a great year for the GOP and he gets a lot of African Americans and college educateds on his side.

[Agonized-Statism]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

Do you have the link?

The user was AN63093, if that helps. And for the record, when I say Mississippi may be an Indiana, I don't mean it'll be a fluke. I mean that its flip may come as a surprise during a wave year. So a better descriptor for my example would be 2016 Michigan, I guess.

[_.]

2030s Mississippi seems to be the most likely to come out of left field. There was an I-VA poster who wrote a great analysis on that, but he hasn't posted since before COVID.

Interesting

Do you have the link?

Would also love to be directed to it as well please, if at all possible!

Found it

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299900.0

Thanks to Anarcho-Statism for the info

[ultraviolet]

Not in the near future, it was a complete fluke

[Mister Mets]

So this would be a party winning a state where they're usually not competitive, and then losing that state?

You probably need a blowout win (7+ points nationally) and a candidate who is the right fit for a region.

Biden won Colorado by 14 points, so that could be an example of a state Republicans win in a good year which they would wrongly assume to be in play.

On the Democratic side, the stars could align for South Carolina, I suppose. The states Trump won by less than ten points are Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, none of which would be as unusual as Indiana.

[Redban]

In a big election win (7% or more), the Republicans can take Colorado or Virginia by a smidge.

For the Democrats, I think Kansas, South Carolina, or Missouri (a state that Obama nearly took)

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas and Alaska are 2 real possibilities. Many people appear to overestimate how red these states are, with Kansas being thought of as a stereotypical rural farm state - in fact, it voted to the left of Missouri, a former swing state, due to large growth and liberalization in Northeast Kansas. The margins for Republicans are quite small - for example, the governor is a Democrat (!!) and Roger Marshall won in 2020 by just 11%. It will take a while but I think that if there's a Democratic landslide year like 2008, Kansas could very possibly flip. Alaska is even bluer - Trump won by just over 10% and on a statewide level, it's probably a Lean R state in a lot of ways. Large growth in urban Alaska, and liberalization, helps Democrats. Of course, some people will refuse to think of Alaska going blue, with some citing the fact that it's voted for a Democratic presidential candidate just once in its history (Johnson in 1964) - but that's misleading, since it was only established in 1960. Several other states, such as KS, OK, NE, the Dakotas, WY, ID and UT have also voted exclusively Republican since 1964 - and all of those states voted significantly to the right of Alaska in 2020. There are some 'Blalaska' theories but I don't think anyone imagines AK will flip blue anytime this decade, so if 2028 is a landslide year, I can see AK flip blue in an upset. Of course, that's not necessarily Indiana in 2008. Indiana in 2008 was a fluke in a state that has voted only red before and since, so KS is a better candidate for the next Indiana 2008.