How Suburban Republicans Became 'Biden Republicans'

[Frodo]

Remember all those family diner stories we used to read in the wake of Donald Trump's upset victory in 2016 on how and why formerly Democratic working class whites in the Rust Belt flipped Republican?  Here's the flipside of those:

‘As Long as the Party Embraces Trump, It’s Going to Have Trouble’
The Republican collapse in Michigan’s Oakland County, once a stronghold, was a long time coming. Is losing these suburbs a warning light for Trumpism?

[perpetual_cynic]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

We'll see if they ever end up caring though. As it stands right now, their rural base is so overly represented in our politics that it doesn't matter to them. It will take a lot for them to have a a come to Jesus moment.

[perpetual_cynic]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

We'll see if they ever end up caring though. As it stands right now, their rural base is so overly represented in our politics that it doesn't matter to them. It will take a lot for them to have a a come to Jesus moment.

Oh I don't expect them to care. I'm just saying this is what I would suggest if I was a Republican strategist.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

We'll see if they ever end up caring though. As it stands right now, their rural base is so overly represented in our politics that it doesn't matter to them. It will take a lot for them to have a a come to Jesus moment.

Oh I don't expect them to care. I'm just saying this is what I would suggest if I was a Republican strategist.

I understand. But if you were a Republican strategist and said this; you'd be laughed out of the room, promptly fired and forced to take a  job with the Lincoln project or as a CNN/MSNBC political analyst.

[perpetual_cynic]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

We'll see if they ever end up caring though. As it stands right now, their rural base is so overly represented in our politics that it doesn't matter to them. It will take a lot for them to have a a come to Jesus moment.

Oh I don't expect them to care. I'm just saying this is what I would suggest if I was a Republican strategist.

I understand. But if you were a Republican strategist and said this; you'd be laughed out of the room, promptly fired and forced to take a  job with the Lincoln project or as a CNN/MSNBC political analyst.

Lol yes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wonder in primaries how much does the rural base actually have that big of an influence or is it just suburban republicans being extremely right wing too .

[perpetual_cynic]

I wonder in primaries how much does the rural base actually have that big of an influence or is it just suburban republicans being extremely right wing too .

Well rural areas have more of an impact influence in primaries than the general, I think. Suburban areas tend to also be more moderate in the primaries than rural areas but you gotta remember that primaries are gonna be for card-carrying partisan voters. Lots of suburban "Republicans" won't vote in primaries and those that do are probably more right-leaning.

[Motorcity]

I wonder in primaries how much does the rural base actually have that big of an influence or is it just suburban republicans being extremely right wing too .

Well rural areas have more of an impact influence in primaries than the general, I think. Suburban areas tend to also be more moderate in the primaries than rural areas but you gotta remember that primaries are gonna be for card-carrying partisan voters. Lots of suburban "Republicans" won't vote in primaries and those that do are probably more right-leaning.

Which is the opposite of the Democratic primary, with it being mostly older more moderate voters.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In the 1990's you had suburban Bill Clinton Republicans in suburban NYC, Chicago, LA and San Francisco, but the Sunbelt suburbs held strong for Republicans. You now have Biden Republicans in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta.

[Matty]

Oakland county is a sh**tty example.

has voted dem since 1992.

much more credible example would be orange county, ca or chesterfield VA

[perpetual_cynic]

Oakland county is a sh**tty example.

has voted dem since 1992.

much more credible example would be orange county, ca or chesterfield VA

Democrats took over the county board in 2018 for the first time in forever....

[Motorcity]

Oakland county is a sh**tty example.

has voted dem since 1992.

much more credible example would be orange county, ca or chesterfield VA

Oakland county is a sh**tty example.

has voted dem since 1992.

much more credible example would be orange county, ca or chesterfield VA

Democrats took over the county board in 2018 for the first time in forever....

In the 1990's you had suburban Bill Clinton Republicans in suburban NYC, Chicago, LA and San Francisco, but the Sunbelt suburbs held strong for Republicans. You now have Biden Republicans in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta.

You all have good points. Oakland has been voting Democrat at the presidential level for several years now. But at the local level, its been dominated by republicans

Democrats winning the county board is important. Gaining strength in some suburbs means strength nationwide. So, in some places it means finally winning the county board. In other places, it means winning for the first time at the presidential level. TX, AZ, and GA are prime examples.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I found the article to be a good read, though more powerful examples than Oakland County exist. That is, places that held out for a decade during the Obama years before the local GOP party infrastructure collapsed during Trump's reign. As recently as 2017, DuPage County, IL had only a single Democrat on its County Board. It's now controlled by Democrats 11-7. In 2019, Democrats swept all county row offices for the first time in Chester County, PA while also flipping the Board of Commissioners.

Trump was a wrecking ball that savaged the local brand Republicans had managed to develop in these kinds of UMC, educated suburbs, and there's little hope of them managing to bring that prestige back.

[Tekken_Guy]

I found the article to be a good read, though more powerful examples than Oakland County exist. That is, places that held out for a decade during the Obama years before the local GOP party infrastructure collapsed during Trump's reign. As recently as 2017, DuPage County, IL had only a single Democrat on its County Board. It's now controlled by Democrats 11-7. In 2019, Democrats swept all county row offices for the first time in Chester County, PA while also flipping the Board of Commissioners.

Trump was a wrecking ball that savaged the local brand Republicans had managed to develop in these kinds of UMC, educated suburbs, and there's little hope of them managing to bring that prestige back.

A lot of places still have Republicans who perform much stronger downballot. Like Fairfield County in CT, a lot of places in North Jersey, most of Suburban Texas and Orange County in CA. In fact, I think CA-48 may go back to voting for Republicans once Trump is off the ballot, and Trump and Rohrabacher I believe are the only Republicans who ever lost it.

Case in point, Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

[DCUS]

Trump was a wrecking ball that savaged the local brand Republicans had managed to develop in these kinds of UMC, educated suburbs, and there's little hope of them managing to bring that prestige back.

It depends on their positions on Trump (see Phil Scott's landslide in 2020). Sadly for the GOP though, now future Republicans will have to answer questions on their connections to Trump (and election fraud), and any one of their answers will distance a large part of their potential voters.

[SingingAnalyst]

Oakland and adjacent Macomb County really do tell the story of how working-class and the affluent suburbs have taken separate political roads. The Detroit metro is full of working-class voters, but the decline hasn't been as vast as in the rest of Michigan. It is remarkable how Biden was able to essentially match Obama's '08 performance and even more impressive is the the sophisticated suburbs of Kent and Ottawa Counties. It is warning to Republicans that the fastest growing areas are shifting against them more in the future than now, because they will hold more political power in the future.

Good article and good comment.

The different paths Oakland and neighboring Macomb have taken are quite striking, and are a microcosm of educated vs. working-class voters nationwide.

A medium sized, mostly unimpressive, thoroughfare--Dequindre Road-- separates Oakland from Macomb counties. In the 1960s, Macomb and Oakland had in common that they were both rapidly growing, mainly due to Detroit residents, nearly all of them white, moving north. However, they were far apart politically: Macomb voted 62.8% and 74.5% for Kennedy and Johnson in 1960 and 1964, and Humphrey even got 55.2% in a 3-way race in 1968, following years of uprisings in large cities, including Detroit; no Democratic Presidential candidate has reached Humphrey's percentage in Macomb (though Obama in 2008 came close). The Macomb County Board of Commissioners had 24 Democrats and 1 Republican when it was created in 1969. Oakland was much more Republican. In the wake of the busing crisis, mentioned in the article, both counties broke for the GOP at the Presidential level, but Macomb much more so; in each election from 1972 through 2012, except for 1976, Macomb and Oakland voted within 5 points of each other.  In 2016, however, Trump did 10 percentage points better in Macomb than in Oakland, and in 2020 that gap grew slightly to 11 points. Today, the GOP holds a majority of seats on the Macomb County Board of Commissioners, and 5 of the 6 county offices; Democrats hold a majority in Oakland.

Even Sterling Heights and Troy, adjacent 6x6 cities on opposite sides of Dequindre Road, have vastly different political behavior, with Troy voting more Republican through 2012 and Sterling Heights voting more for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

[Hope For A New Era]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

There still residual support for moderate Rockefeller Republicans in New England at the state level too.

[Calthrina950]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

There still residual support for moderate Rockefeller Republicans in New England at the state level too.

Phil Scott and Charlie Baker are the most obvious examples of this.

[KYRockefeller]

Kentucky saw a bit of this when our "mini-Trump" Matt Bevin went down to Andy Beshear in 2019.  Beshear beat Bevin at the top by 5,000 votes but Republicans crushed Democrats in every other down ballot race for AG, State Auditor, Ag. Commissioner, Treasury Secretary, and Secretary of State.  You had all kinds of traditionally strong GOP areas of the state like Warren County and the Northern KY suburbs that swung against Bevin but they still voted GOP in basically every other race.

[Hope For A New Era]

There still residual support for moderate Rockefeller Republicans in New England at the state level too.

Phil Scott and Charlie Baker are the most obvious examples of this.

I disagree with this interpretation. Ancestral support occasionally gives a candidate a bump, but it doesn't produce wins of that size, ever. Scott, Baker, and Hogan are like Laura Kelly or Dave Freudenthal (in 2002/2006). I'm not saying there isn't ancestral voting involved in any of the races I've mentioned, but ancestralism alone is not nearly enough to win in any of these states. This is true crossover support, that great rarity in our polarized age.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

Yeah, if anything, the collapse is happening faster compared to the timeline trajectory for ancestrally Democratic areas. Remember when Republicans were highly competitive downballot in places like Lake County, IL; San Diego County, CA; and the suburbs of Hennepin County, MN just a few years ago? Or how they flipped IL-10 as recently as 2014, held MN-3 until 2018, and were keeping Scott Peters in CA-52 down to 2-3 point wins in 2012 and 2014? That's already a completely alien political landscape to 2021.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

Yeah, if anything, the collapse is happening faster compared to the timeline trajectory for ancestrally Democratic areas. Remember when Republicans were highly competitive downballot in places like Lake County, IL; San Diego County, CA; and the suburbs of Hennepin County, MN just a few years ago? Or how they flipped IL-10 as recently as 2014, held MN-3 until 2018, and were keeping Scott Peters in CA-52 down to 2-3 point wins in 2012 and 2014? That's already a completely alien political landscape to 2021.

Well, Biden voters are far more likely to split their tickets for Republicans than Trump voters are for Dems. John Katko in his Biden+10 district cruised to re-election while Anthony Brindisi next door in a Trump+10 seat couldn’t stop his radioactive predecessor from making a comeback.

[Pericles]

Biden voters aren’t abandoning downballot Republicans nearly as fast as Trump voters are with Democrats.

Realignment effect. Trump voters abandoning downballot Democrats is a trend that has been ongoing since the 1980s. Remember that Arkansas had a D trifecta until 2012. It takes a while.

Expect to see a whole lot of D President/R downballot voters in the future, though I imagine this realignment will not take nearly as long as in the South (except for maybe in Utah).

Yeah, if anything, the collapse is happening faster compared to the timeline trajectory for ancestrally Democratic areas. Remember when Republicans were highly competitive downballot in places like Lake County, IL; San Diego County, CA; and the suburbs of Hennepin County, MN just a few years ago? Or how they flipped IL-10 as recently as 2014, held MN-3 until 2018, and were keeping Scott Peters in CA-52 down to 2-3 point wins in 2012 and 2014? That's already a completely alien political landscape to 2021.

Well, Biden voters are far more likely to split their tickets for Republicans than Trump voters are for Dems. John Katko in his Biden+10 district cruised to re-election while Anthony Brindisi next door in a Trump+10 seat couldn’t stop his radioactive predecessor from making a comeback.

Statistically there are basically as many Trump-Dem districts as Biden-Rep districts (notably the combined total is less than half the 2016 amount). Most of the biggest overperformances (there are so few big ones though) happened to be Republicans, though some Democrats like Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright and Andy Kim did great.