What percentage chance do the republicans have of taking the senate without taking the house

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’d say this is close to impossible as it gets so probably 1-2%

[President Johnson]

Not very likely, though I wouldn't rule it out entirely. Just like remind everyone that well into 2020 the Democrats were given a slim chance to take the senate while Republicans were expected to either just net gain a handful of seats in the House, or lose even more ground.

Right now, <5% chance this happens.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not very likely, though I wouldn't rule it out entirely. Just like remind everyone that well into 2020 the Democrats were given a slim chance to take the senate while Republicans were expected to either just net gain a handful of seats in the House, or lose even more ground.

Right now, <5% chance this happens.

Though I’d still say republicans in 2020 probably had very little chance to take the house if they lost the senate . Perdue needed just a 0.27% swing in November to win re-election in round 1 which would have meant the republicans keep the senate while for the house I think republicans needed a 1.5-2 point swing

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Unrealistic (sub-5% chance) without HR1 or a special election.

Even with HR1, the path would probably require an otherwise lower-turnout midterm in which Candidate Quality Mattered to an abnormal extent. The NRCC would have to the House on a knife edge while the NRSC took advantage of a weak Democratic campaign in a
AZ and/or PA. Sununu could just about squeak by in NH anyway.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

0.1% chance.

[MT Treasurer]

Very unlikely, but the reverse outcome (Republicans flipping the House while Democrats hold the Senate) also isn’t nearly as likely as many believe assuming that Puerto Rico and D.C. aren’t added.

If 2022 is an 'atypical' midterm, Democrats holding the House shouldn’t be that surprising. Similarly, Republicans failing to flip the Senate on a night when they’re winning >10 House seats and maybe even leading in the House Popular Vote is not the kind of outcome that should be expected.

[Xing]

Extremely unlikely, unless Republicans decide to unilaterally disarm when it comes to gerrymandering.

[Young Conservative]

.01%

[Chips]

1%.