Which will be the bluest state in the near future? (10-15 years)

[THG]

IMO in the 2030’s Maryland will most likely be the bluest state in the Union, probably being well over a D+40 state.

1) That state represents the current Dem party well, just like how New England spiritually felt like the home of the 2000’s Dem party, or how Orange County was spiritually “Reagan Country” for so long (Press F for Red OC), or how West Virginia represents Trump’s coalition so well. I don’t know if this analogy makes sense, but if you get it, you know what I mean.

2) By that I mean that it has some of the most favorable demographics for the Democratic Party in the country right now, far more so than even a state as blue as California or Hawaii IMO. Think of it as if NOVA or the Atlanta metro area was a state. Suburban/Urban, a significant plurality of minorities with are mostly somewhat middle class/managerial Blacks- not even Working Class Blacks who trended R, and not many Hispanics or Asians like in California or NY, and not too many ancestral white non-college Democrats like in Massachusetts or Vermont either. And with the exception of some of the exurbs in the most Western or Eastern parts of the state, most White voters are urban/suburban, college educated and extremely liberal, and representative of the white college voters who were what dragged Biden to victory. I expect most transplants to be extremely liberal too.

4) All the demographics I named above (Hispanics, Asians, Working Class Blacks and Working Class Partisan White Dems in the NE) are a) trending R and b) still significantly more elastic than either woke white suburbanites or middle class blacks, who are trending D if anything (particularly white college suburbanites).

5) It’s probably the one state in 2024 that I expect to trend blue no matter what. And I expect it to be a D+40 state in 15-20 years unless Hogan somehow becomes the GOP nominee during that period of time, lol.


What does Atlas think? Next time, I’m going to be doing this but replacing “bluest” with “reddest”, whch should be harder (and even more interesting!).

[CascadianIndy]

It's a good case, and I'd concur!

[THG]

It's a good case, and I'd concur!

Thanks a lot!

[Kamala's side hoe]

2) By that I mean that it has some of the most favorable demographics for the Democratic Party in the country right now, far more so than even a state as blue as California or Massachusetts IMO. Think of it as if NOVA or the Atlanta metro area was a state. Suburban/Urban, a significant plurality of minorities with are mostly somewhat middle class/managerial Blacks- not even Working Class Blacks who trended R, and not many Hispanics or Asians like in California or NY, who are significantly more elastic and also trending R (atleast Hispanics are). And with the exception of some of the exurbs in the most Western or Eastern parts of the state, most White voters are urban/suburban, college educated and extremely liberal, and representative of the white college voters who were what dragged Biden to victory. I expect most transplants to be extremely liberal too.

MD has more non-bougie Blacks, Latinos (11%), and Asians (6-7%) than you’re suggesting- but I agree with your overall point.

[THG]

2) By that I mean that it has some of the most favorable demographics for the Democratic Party in the country right now, far more so than even a state as blue as California or Massachusetts IMO. Think of it as if NOVA or the Atlanta metro area was a state. Suburban/Urban, a significant plurality of minorities with are mostly somewhat middle class/managerial Blacks- not even Working Class Blacks who trended R, and not many Hispanics or Asians like in California or NY, who are significantly more elastic and also trending R (atleast Hispanics are). And with the exception of some of the exurbs in the most Western or Eastern parts of the state, most White voters are urban/suburban, college educated and extremely liberal, and representative of the white college voters who were what dragged Biden to victory. I expect most transplants to be extremely liberal too.

MD has more non-bougie Blacks, Latinos (11%), and Asians (6-7%) than you’re suggesting- but I agree with your overall point.

You are right, but the Asian/Hispanic population is not as much in as a state like California, and the 30+% AA population in Maryland are still overall way more “bougie”? than in say, Arkansas or Mississippi (or any other state in the country, tbh). That’s the point I was trying to make.

I do think Maryland is like if Atlanta or NOVA were it’s own state, tbh.

[_.]

I initially chose Massachusetts because of it being a higher education hub, an "elite" place, being the most college-educated state in the nation (44% and rising), and the demographics making up Massachusetts all trending heavily towards the Democratic party (rich suburban whites).

But after reading TheTarHeelGent's post on Maryland it seems like another great option that I overlooked.

What does Atlas think? Next time, I’m going to be doing this but replacing “bluest” with “reddest”, whch should be harder (and even more interesting!).

I look forward to that topic! You also may be interested in reading through this thread I made a while back

[THG]

I initially chose Massachusetts because of it being a higher education hub, an "elite" place, being the most college-educated state in the nation (44% and rising), and the demographics making up Massachusetts all trending heavily towards the Democratic party (rich suburban whites).

But after reading TheTarHeelGent's post on Maryland it seems like another great option that I overlooked.

What does Atlas think? Next time, I’m going to be doing this but replacing “bluest” with “reddest”, whch should be harder (and even more interesting!).

I look forward to that topic! You also may be interested in reading through this thread I made a while back

Massachusetts has some ethnic white WWC which may trend right, which is about the only thing going for the GOP there. Maryland has no demographic trends favoring the GOP.

Also, figuring out the "reddest" state by 2032/6 is considerably more difficult.

[THG]

Also, who voted for New Jersey? Lol.

[Chips]

Maryland is a good guess.

[Ferguson97]

DC

[If my soul was made of stone]

Biden was the first Democrat to win the white vote in Maryland since LBJ, and won the state by more overall. Any backsliding in the Black vote was fairly minimal compared to other parts of the country, and the white vote swung impressively hard (Anne Arundel decided by double digits, Talbot County swinging almost eleven points). Only one county, notoriously fickle and racially polarized Somerset, swung towards Trump. It's far too early to tell if these trends will hold, but even if they flatten the Old Line State is poised to become the bluest. The only two that were bluer in 2020, Massachusetts and Vermont, are poised to trend right as others have noted.

[THG]

DC

Which is relatively unlikely to ever become a state. Of course, I should’ve made an exception if it hypothetically became a state.

[Schiff for Senate]

MA, VT or MD. HI and CA are outside possibilities.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think MD is a pretty good bet.  Very favorable demographics which are trending in the right direction for Democrats + an extremely educated suburban population that tends to turn out in every election.  Democrats have an extreme floor. 

I think MA is also a possibility.

It's kind of crazy how many wasted votes Democrats have in MD and MA (not to mention NY, IL, CA) when they have to go door to door canvassing in states like Ohio and Wisconsin to try to win the senate...

[Minnesota Mike]

DC

[THG]

DC

Not exactly likely to have the honor of being a state (not should that honor ever be bestowed to that dump).