Kansas 1976

[Tartarus Sauce]

Ford only won Kansas in 1976 by a 7.6 point margin of 52.5-44.9, the narrowest Republican margin of victory in the state post 1940. It was also the second best Democratic performance post 1936 after Johnson's win in the state during his 1964 nationwide landslide. Carter won a contiguous stretch of counties in the western half of the state with no particular Democratic history outside of national landslides, nor did they display relative strength in terms of weaker Republican margins during normal years. He also kept Ford to sub-60 in the counties he did carry outside of just a handful.

Why did Carter do so well in the state this election?

[MT Treasurer]

“There’ll be no more grain embargoes if I’m elected President.” It surely wasn’t the only reason, but the fact that that state in particular (along with Iowa) was hit hard by the wheat embargo of 1975 likely played a role. Carter's identity-based appeals (decidedly religious/upright farmer from a rural background) also contrased nicely with perceptions of Ford as an elitist, out-of-touch career politician who betrayed farmers, small-town Americans, and conservatives.

I don’t think Ford's brand of Republicanism was ever really all that well-received in KS, but it is interesting that the state swung leftward much more sharply than NE. I do think KS has always had a more pronounced 'anti-establishment' tradition, but I don’t know for sure.

[Tartarus Sauce]

“There’ll be no more grain embargoes if I’m elected President.”t surely wasn’t the only reason, but the fact that that state in particular (along with Iowa) was hit hard by the wheat embargo of 1975 likely played a role. Carter's identity-based appeals (decidedly religious/upright farmer from a rural background) also contrased nicely with perceptions of Ford as an elitist, out-of-touch career politician who betrayed farmers, small-town Americans, and conservatives.

I don’t think Ford's brand of Republicanism was ever really all that well-received in KS, but it is interesting that the state swung leftward much more sharply than NE. I do think KS has always had a more pronounced 'anti-establishment' tradition, but I don’t know for sure.

Ironic considering the fact that Carter did end up enacting just such an embargo in 1980.

The 1973-1975 moratoria I believe covered a range of products, not just wheat.

[darklordoftech]

Interesting when you consider who Ford’s running mate was.

[patzer]

Interesting when you consider who Ford’s running mate was.

Is it possible that Dole was unpopular in Kansas and dragged Ford down? After all he almost lost his 1974 senate reelection bid.

[darklordoftech]

Interesting when you consider who Ford’s running mate was.

Is it possible that Dole was unpopular in Kansas and dragged Ford down? After all he almost lost his 1974 senate reelection bid.

I was wondering that myself. Apparently it seemed like Dole was going to be defeated until it came out that his opponent had performed abortions.

[TDAS04]

Cater apparently had some appeal to rural Plains communities.  The Dakotas were even closer, South Dakota was very close.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Cater apparently had some appeal to rural Plains communities.  The Dakotas were even closer, South Dakota was very close.

Another Southern bubba Bill Clinton came very close in 1992 and 1996 in SD too.

[Hope For A New Era]

The remarkable thing about 1976 to me has always been how consistent the margins were in every state. Almost every state was close, or, at least, much closer than it normally is/was. It's very much a dealignment election.

I do think KS has always had a more pronounced 'anti-establishment' tradition, but I don’t know for sure.

In some ways, yes. Prairie Populists were very powerful in Kansas at one time. I'd say Nebraska is the more anti-establishment state today, though. At least, it's certainly more Trumpist;

[VPH]

SW Kansas occasionally voted for downballot Democrats. Gubernatorial results during the 1970s looked similar to Carter's in 1976. Dodge City and Garden City in particular used to elect Democratic state reps consistently. Even losing statewide Democrats used to finish in the 40-45% range.

Not fully sure how to explain it. Supposedly there was some Southern settlement in Western Kansas (I think Kevin Phillips mentioned it in one of his books). Less than in West Texas and parts of Oklahoma but George Wallace did pull decently high numbers in the region. Carter's profile as a Southern Evangelical and a relatively moderate Democrat probably played well there for these reasons.