If Ron Johnson was up in 2020?

[President Johnson]

Would he have won reelection or could a strong Democratic candidate like Mark Pocan have unseated him? While the presidential election was very close, I'm not sure there are many Biden-Johnson voters. (Populist) Trump-Pocan voters are easier to imagine, if I'm being honest.

[MATTROSE94]

Ron Johnson I think loses by about 10,000 votes if he was up in 2020, though he could win if he out-populists Mark Pocan.

[SnowLabrador]

I think he would have narrowly held on. Downballot Democrats mostly underperformed Biden in 2020.

[sting in the rafters]

Perhaps Johnson would have held on via performing slightly better in WoW, however I also see him running behind Trump in Fox Valley and susceptible to increased D turnout from Madison metro. The very fact he's up for re-election likely changes the complexity of the presidential race. Could see it going either way, only definitive I would say is there would be no split decision.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone here on this board thinks Baldwin lost by 10 in 2018, she won by 10 and Nelson and Fetterman are gonna win in 2022, as well and we can win wave insurence seats OH since Mandel is a weak opponent and NC😄😄😄

[MATTROSE94]

I think he would have narrowly held on. Downballot Democrats mostly underperformed Biden in 2020.

2020 was the worst Presidential year for down-ballot Democrats since probably 1952, 1980, or 1992 due to the fact that the Democrats abandoned in-person canvassing (due to COVID) as well as the fact that asymmetric polarization worked in favor of Republican Senators and House members for some odd reason (see Maine, North Carolina, and numerous House races).

[MATTROSE94]

Everyone here on this board thinks Baldwin lost by 10 in 2018, she won by 10 and Nelson and Fetterman are gonna win in 2022, as well and we can win wave insurence seats OH since Mandel is a weak opponent and NC😄😄😄

I don’t think Josh Mandel will be the nominee in Ohio. It will probably be JD Vance due to his strong populist message and Appalachian roots. JD Vance likely wins by about 12-15% over Tim Ryan.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think he would have defied the presidential results of his state as Collins did. Ticket-splitting in WOW especially probably would have gave him a slim, but still bigger than Biden's, victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone here on this board thinks Baldwin lost by 10 in 2018, she won by 10 and Nelson and Fetterman are gonna win in 2022, as well and we can win wave insurence seats OH since Mandel is a weak opponent and NC😄😄😄

I don’t think Josh Mandel will be the nominee in Ohio. It will probably be JD Vance due to his strong populist message and Appalachian roots. JD Vance likely wins by about 12-15% over Tim Ryan.

The only poll we had had Acton leading Rs by 2 and Ryan down by 2 it's not a 20 pt race, Trump won by 9 pts not 20, it has 12 percent Afro Americans and Trump flipped Mahoning County an Afro American population County before an Insurrectionists

[MATTROSE94]

Everyone here on this board thinks Baldwin lost by 10 in 2018, she won by 10 and Nelson and Fetterman are gonna win in 2022, as well and we can win wave insurence seats OH since Mandel is a weak opponent and NC😄😄😄

I don’t think Josh Mandel will be the nominee in Ohio. It will probably be JD Vance due to his strong populist message and Appalachian roots. JD Vance likely wins by about 12-15% over Tim Ryan.

The only poll we had had Acton leading Rs by 2 and Ryan down by 2 it's not a 20 pt race, Trump won by 9 pts not 20, it has 12 percent Afro Americans and Trump flipped Mahoning County an Afro American population County before an Insurrectionists

Amy Acton isn’t running, though she would be my first choice.

[Pericles]

I think he would have narrowly held on. Downballot Democrats mostly underperformed Biden in 2020.

2020 was the worst Presidential year for down-ballot Democrats since probably 1952, 1980, or 1992 due to the fact that the Democrats abandoned in-person canvassing (due to COVID) as well as the fact that asymmetric polarization worked in favor of Republican Senators and House members for some odd reason (see Maine, North Carolina, and numerous House races).

NC President-Trump +1.35%
NC Senate-Tillis +1.75%

Truly a stunning amount of split-ticket voting.

And Biden only won 2 more House districts than House Dems, and the overall amount of split-ticket districts was the lowest since 1920 (just 16, less than half of the amount in 2016).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably wins

Baldwin won by a landslide in 2018, if the Election were held today, D's would win OH, WI, PA, and GA and NC, we need 53 seats to Abolish the Filibuster

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He wins if the Democrat underperforms as much as Peters or Smith.

[NewYorkExpress]

What probably happens here is Johnson pulls Trump over the finish line in Wisconsin in a case of reverse coattails.

[President Johnson]

I think he would have defied the presidential results of his state as Collins did. Ticket-splitting in WOW especially probably would have gave him a slim, but still bigger than Biden's, victory.

I'm not sure Wisconsin is really comparable to Maine here, let alone Johnson to Collins. Maine is a more blue state and Collins still managed to sell herself as a moderate by voting against Obamacare repeal and ACB's nomination. If she didn't vote for Kavanaugh, she would possibly have won by a larger margin. If Johnson indeed would have outperformed Trump, it wouldn't have been by much. However, in a state as close, it may have been enough.

[Alben Barkley]

What probably happens here is Johnson pulls Trump over the finish line in Wisconsin in a case of reverse coattails.

Lolwat

Reverse coattails do not exist and if they did, Ron Johnson would not be among those who have them.

[Pericles]

What probably happens here is Johnson pulls Trump over the finish line in Wisconsin in a case of reverse coattails.

Lolwat

Reverse coattails do not exist and if they did, Ron Johnson would not be among those who have them.

Maybe you could say they existed for David Perdue, as he needed Trump to be on the ballot even though Trump lost the state, so that he could get sufficient turnout while keeping the very slight crossover appeal he had. However, my guess is that the drop in Republican turnout and Perdue's loss were more due to Trump lying about the election being stolen, rather than just him not being on the ballot.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- He would have lost. Someone else would have won though(ie Gallagher or even Steil or Kleefisch)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What probably happens here is Johnson pulls Trump over the finish line in Wisconsin in a case of reverse coattails.

Lolwat

Reverse coattails do not exist and if they did, Ron Johnson would not be among those who have them.

Maybe you could say they existed for David Perdue, as he needed Trump to be on the ballot even though Trump lost the state, so that he could get sufficient turnout while keeping the very slight crossover appeal he had. However, my guess is that the drop in Republican turnout and Perdue's loss were more due to Trump lying about the election being stolen, rather than just him not being on the ballot.

I think ‘reverse coat-tails’ means a down ballot candidate helping the headliner. Which largely doesn’t happen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think he would have defied the presidential results of his state as Collins did. Ticket-splitting in WOW especially probably would have gave him a slim, but still bigger than Biden's, victory.

I'm not sure Wisconsin is really comparable to Maine here, let alone Johnson to Collins. Maine is a more blue state and Collins still managed to sell herself as a moderate by voting against Obamacare repeal and ACB's nomination. If she didn't vote for Kavanaugh, she would possibly have won by a larger margin. If Johnson indeed would have outperformed Trump, it wouldn't have been by much. However, in a state as close, it may have been enough.

Well, I wasn't necessarily saying that Maine and Wisconsin are comparable. Just that Johnson would have won at the same time Biden did, like with Collins.

[ElectionsGuy]

It would probably be the closest Senate race in the country but I'd say he hangs on by a tiny bit.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Biden-Johnson voters are pretty easy to imagine. I think you're not really thinking if you don't think someone would vote that way. Ron Johnson did about 3% better than Trump in 2016. A somewhat conservative voter who doesn't like Trump on COVID or doesn't like Trump's personality could easily be a Biden --> Johnson voter. The average D did about 1.4% worse than Biden, and Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%. I'm pretty sure ROJO would have won in 2020, albeit by a small amount


WI-01, WI-05, and WI-08 all had pretty substantial downballot R overperformances