How are white voters in Mississippi trending?

[Greedo punched first]

Mississippi has the most Republican white population in the country. How are they trending: Republican, Democratic, or static? How do young whites compare to older ones?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Static, as they have been for decades. Stil 80-90% GOP.

[Greedo punched first]

Static, as they have been for decades. Stil 80-90% GOP.

Unlike LaSalle Parish, Louisiana, which is 80-90% GOP and still trending GOP?

[bagelman]

Whites in the northeast part of the state, where some of the last dixiecrats lived, have been trending GOP in the past catching up with the rest of the state. Whites in DeSoto County, Memphis suburbs, are trending DEM. I see some tiny DEM trends on the reactionary Gulf Coast and some GOP trends in the rural hinterlands of the state. In general they seem pretty static as a whole, with DEM trending DeSoto the only area of activity.

[Skill and Chance]

Mildly Dem, but not by enough to matter.

[Frodo]

Whites in the northeast part of the state, where some of the last dixiecrats lived, have been trending GOP in the past catching up with the rest of the state. Whites in DeSoto County, Memphis suburbs, are trending DEM. I see some tiny DEM trends on the reactionary Gulf Coast and some GOP trends in the rural hinterlands of the state. In general they seem pretty static as a whole, with DEM trending DeSoto the only area of activity.

So we can expect Republicans to remain in control of Mississippi for the foreseeable future.  How long can we expect Republicans to control the legislature, I wonder?  Democrats controlled both chambers for over a century (130 years) after Reconstruction ended until Republicans (temporarily) won the Senate in 2007.  Can we expect Republicans to maintain their hold through the remainder of this century? 

[Greedo punched first]

Whites in the northeast part of the state, where some of the last dixiecrats lived, have been trending GOP in the past catching up with the rest of the state. Whites in DeSoto County, Memphis suburbs, are trending DEM. I see some tiny DEM trends on the reactionary Gulf Coast and some GOP trends in the rural hinterlands of the state. In general they seem pretty static as a whole, with DEM trending DeSoto the only area of activity.

So we can expect Republicans to remain in control of Mississippi for the foreseeable future.  How long can we expect Republicans to control the legislature, I wonder?  Democrats controlled both chambers for over a century (130 years) after Reconstruction ended until Republicans (temporarily) won the Senate in 2007.  Can we expect Republicans to maintain their hold through the remainder of this century? 

Yes, unless there are major changes in demographics.

[Hope For A New Era]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

[Not Me, Us]

Whites in the northeast part of the state, where some of the last dixiecrats lived, have been trending GOP in the past catching up with the rest of the state. Whites in DeSoto County, Memphis suburbs, are trending DEM. I see some tiny DEM trends on the reactionary Gulf Coast and some GOP trends in the rural hinterlands of the state. In general they seem pretty static as a whole, with DEM trending DeSoto the only area of activity.

So we can expect Republicans to remain in control of Mississippi for the foreseeable future.  How long can we expect Republicans to control the legislature, I wonder?  Democrats controlled both chambers for over a century (130 years) after Reconstruction ended until Republicans (temporarily) won the Senate in 2007.  Can we expect Republicans to maintain their hold through the remainder of this century? 

The rest of the century is a really long time to make confident predictions for. As of right now, there' no real reason to believe MS will be at all competitive any time soon, but any number of realignments in the next 80 years could change that. 80 years ago, people would have laughed at the thought of MS being anything but a safe Democratic state, but things change.

[7,052,770]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

[Hope For A New Era]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

[Sol]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

Looking at 2020 DRA estimates, yes. Precincts don't match up perfectly but in 2010 Horn Lake was 56% white and 33% Black, now it's in the mid-40s for both groups.

DeSoto is undergoing very heavy white flight and Black suburbanization.

Plus local political trends tend to lag population change somewhat, since people don't necessarily tune into local elections.

[OneJ]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

Well remember that it's in conjunction with DeSoto whites switching to voting for Dems as well, particularly the ones living in Horn Lake and Southaven. It's kinda behaving like suburban ATL (Gwinnett, Cobb, Forsyth, etc.).

[Tintrlvr]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

Well remember that it's in conjunction with DeSoto whites switching to voting for Dems as well, particularly the ones living in Horn Lake and Southaven. It's kinda behaving like suburban ATL (Gwinnett, Cobb, Forsyth, etc.).

DeSoto is not like those places at all; the white voters in DeSoto are more like the white voters in Newton or Henry, who have stayed solidly Republican while becoming a minority in their counties, or somewhere in like Spalding, which is headed in that direction. The areas of the Memphis metro that resemble Forsyth or Cobb or Gwinnett are all inside Shelby County with maybe a bit bleeding into Fayette.

[OneJ]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

Well remember that it's in conjunction with DeSoto whites switching to voting for Dems as well, particularly the ones living in Horn Lake and Southaven. It's kinda behaving like suburban ATL (Gwinnett, Cobb, Forsyth, etc.).

DeSoto is not like those places at all; the white voters in DeSoto are more like the white voters in Newton or Henry, who have stayed solidly Republican while becoming a minority in their counties, or somewhere in like Spalding, which is headed in that direction. The areas of the Memphis metro that resemble Forsyth or Cobb or Gwinnett are all inside Shelby County with maybe a bit bleeding into Fayette.

Well I was talking about the county's siginificant swing against the Republicans/demographic change recently, not necessarily comparing white voters to the ones in suburban ATL.

[Greedo punched first]

About the only thing of interest is that there's a Democratic state representative in DeSoto now. She won by 14 votes in 2019, in a rematch of 2015, in which she lost big. Not sure what changed there. That's a pretty dramatic swing.

Black flight from Memphis to Horn Lake, combined with the fact that the 2015 winner was a total loony, even by state legislator standards.

Enough black flight to swing the district 37 points to the left in four years? That just seems really unlikely.

Well remember that it's in conjunction with DeSoto whites switching to voting for Dems as well, particularly the ones living in Horn Lake and Southaven. It's kinda behaving like suburban ATL (Gwinnett, Cobb, Forsyth, etc.).

DeSoto is not like those places at all; the white voters in DeSoto are more like the white voters in Newton or Henry, who have stayed solidly Republican while becoming a minority in their counties, or somewhere in like Spalding, which is headed in that direction. The areas of the Memphis metro that resemble Forsyth or Cobb or Gwinnett are all inside Shelby County with maybe a bit bleeding into Fayette.

Are white voters in DeSoto trending Republican even though they’re already very Republican?

[Damocles]

Hard R. In more than one way.

[Greedo punched first]

Do most majority-white precincts have a few white Biden voters or not?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Do most majority-white precincts have a few white Biden voters or not?

Most of them do, a mixture of the few white liberals and minorities who live in them.

[Non Swing Voter]

This forum is super obsessed with the idea that Mississippi will flip simply because it has the highest percentage black population in the country.

[Tintrlvr]

Do most majority-white precincts have a few white Biden voters or not?

I mean, it's clear that there are *some* white Democrats everywhere. You're talking maybe 2-5% of the population in the most extreme cases, but in a precinct of 500 voters that's still 10-25 people.

[Brittain33]

Whites in the northeast part of the state, where some of the last dixiecrats lived, have been trending GOP in the past catching up with the rest of the state. Whites in DeSoto County, Memphis suburbs, are trending DEM. I see some tiny DEM trends on the reactionary Gulf Coast and some GOP trends in the rural hinterlands of the state. In general they seem pretty static as a whole, with DEM trending DeSoto the only area of activity.

So we can expect Republicans to remain in control of Mississippi for the foreseeable future.  How long can we expect Republicans to control the legislature, I wonder?  Democrats controlled both chambers for over a century (130 years) after Reconstruction ended until Republicans (temporarily) won the Senate in 2007.  Can we expect Republicans to maintain their hold through the remainder of this century? 

Yes, unless there are major changes in demographics.

Or changes in how our parties reflect racial dynamics.