Rate Florida

[TDAS04]

LOL

[President Johnson]

Titanium Tilt Republican

[Xing]

Titanium R, the only question is whether Miami-Dade and/or the state as a whole will vote right of Wyoming (obviously both will still vote left of Starr county, which will vote to the right of King county, TX.)

(In all seriousness, Lean R.)

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R.

[One Term Floridian]

Hard Lean R until a Democrat proves otherwise at this point

[Del Tachi]

Tilt R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It tilts R in 2022, due to Rubio and DeSantis, but it can swing D in 2024 due to Rick Scott can lose, he isn't Rubio

So, it tilts D in 2o24, just like we won FL in 2008 and it swing R in 2010 and it swing back D in 2012

It's an R based battleground just like IA, OH, NC are and AZ, NV, GA, WI MI, MN and PA are D based battlegrounds

[Chips]

Lean R

[pbrower2a]

Tilt R.

Florida barely went D in 2012, and it is in roughly the same position as states "fall" Democratic. It has been more R than the US in Presidential elections since at least 1996. It is not an easy win for Republicans, but it will not decide a Presidential election for a Democrat. No Democratic nominee can expect Florida to decide a Presidential election on his behalf. It will not serve as a substitute for Michigan and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It represented between 321 and 350 electoral votes in 2020, and that is close to where it stands today (unless Republicans can find effective means in which to suppress the D vote in Arizona and Georgia while failing to do so in Florida. North Carolina goes D before Florida. Florida was the difference between 303 and 332 electoral votes in 2012 for a Democrat -- what a coincidence!

There will be differences between 2020 and 2024. The Party of the incumbent President controls the discussion, and Donald Trump was successful in depicting Joe Biden and other Democrats as "soft on Communism". President Biden will likely give some chance to Raul Castro's successor to get warmer relations with the USA -- but on terms that don't hurt Democrats. Cuban-Americans who don't insist on returning to Cuba to lord it over Cuba as their grandparents did will be the ones to get tangible benefits from such. That would be more Cuban-Americans.

I don't know any Cuban-Americans, and I have never even been in Florida. What do Cuban-Americans think of the Putsch of January 6? We have no good polls of that.       

[S019]

Tossup, probably Tilt R if forced to choose, I expect some reversion to the norm in Miami-Dade whether or not it's enough, only time will tell

[AGA]

Likely R. It was eight points to the right of the nation in 2020, so it would be a tough flip. Presidential incumbents have done well in Florida in recent elections, but that is not a hard rule. The problem for Democrats is that Florida is demographic whack-a-mole. When they achieve the numbers they need in one region of the state, they do too poorly on other regions to win. Democrats will not even come close to Hillary Clinton's strong margin in Miami-Dade County, so they would have to make serious gains elsewhere to win, perhaps in Southwest and Central Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

A national embarrassment.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

(Strong) Lean R, but like in the case TX, the 'closeness' of the margin blurs the fact that it’s very close to Likely R in terms of actual probability of a R victory.

[SN2903]

Likely R bordering on Safe.
If Trump is the nominee in 24 I think he wins it by 4.5-6%. If DeSantis is the nominee I can see him winning it by up to 7 or 8%.

[Cyrusman]

Solid R (yes being serious) Florida has trended hard right in the last few years and a bunch of conservatives are flocking to the state

If I were the dems I wouldn’t waste my money and time here

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R. The Republican floor is just too impenetrable here, even if Biden does recover in Miami-Dade.