Rudy Giuliani vs Kathleen Sebelius

[adam]

Discuss.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

A right-wing candidate would emerge, splitting the Republican vote slightly more than Nader did in 2000, and Sebelius would win.

[7,052,770]

Sebelius would almost certainly win, as Guliani would not appeal to the Republican base at all.

[True Democrat]

Assuming the Republican base decides hold their noses and support Giuliani or just not vote(which an assumption that can't really be made):



440-98

[TomC]

Assuming the Republican base decides hold their noses and support Giuliani or just not vote(which an assumption that can't really be made):



440-98

Ah, seeing as we're spinning rather than predicting, I'll offer up this:

[True Democrat]

Assuming the Republican base decides hold their noses and support Giuliani or just not vote(which an assumption that can't really be made):



440-98

Ah, seeing as we're spinning rather than predicting, I'll offer up this:

I would vote for Sebelius, but I think Guiliani would kick her ass.

[Boris]

A right-wing candidate would emerge, splitting the Republican vote slightly more than Nader did in 2000, and Sebelius would win.

Agreed.

Sebelius/Warner vs. Guiliani/Huckabee vs. Some Conservative/Some Conservative

Sebelius 360-178

Popular vote:

Sebelius: 48%
Giuliani: 44%
Some Conservative: 8%


Maybe I'm overstating the thrid party influence, but Guiliani does not break 50% in any southern state except Arkansas, although he wins them by 8-10 point margins.

Guiliani wouldn't lose in a landslide (he's far too charismatic for that), but the conservatives would ultimately bring him down.

[jman724]

A right-wing candidate would emerge, splitting the Republican vote slightly more than Nader did in 2000, and Sebelius would win.

Agreed.

Sebelius/Warner vs. Guiliani/Huckabee vs. Some Conservative/Some Conservative

Sebelius 360-178

Popular vote:

Sebelius: 48%
Giuliani: 44%
Some Conservative: 8%


Maybe I'm overstating the thrid party influence, but Guiliani does not break 50% in any southern state except Arkansas, although he wins them by 8-10 point margins.

Guiliani wouldn't lose in a landslide (he's far too charismatic for that), but the conservatives would ultimately bring him down.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this.  I was going to post virtually the same exact thing.  The breakaway conservative might poll a little less, but no lower than 5%.  Either way, he would draw enough votes away from Giuliani to give the election to Sebelius (whom i would probably vote for).

[Rococo4]

Giulani would smash her

[TomC]

We Dems will crucify Guiliani for his cheating (which the Republicans made fair game). Nominate him, please!

[adam]

We Dems will crucify Guiliani for his cheating (which the Republicans made fair game). Nominate him, please!

Wouldn't that be a little hypocritical?

[Eraserhead]

I would go for a third party.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I would go for Kathy without hesitation and I think she would win the PV by a margin of at least 57-43 and take several of the Bush states from 2004 and keep most of Kerry's states.

[jman724]

I would go for Kathy without hesitation and I think she would win the PV by a margin of at least 57-43 and take several of the Bush states from 2004 and keep most of Kerry's states.

It is rare enough for a popular President to be re-elected with 57% of the vote.  Unless she was up against a disaster of a candidate, i don't see her getting nearly that high in a first term bid. 

[MarkWarner08]

Giuliani will win; Sebelius should win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Not that close but staunch conservative sweeps South yet does nothing in the majority of the rest of the country:

[adam]

Not that close but staunch conservative sweeps South yet does nothing in the majority of the rest of the country:

Giuliani isn't that left wing. In fact, as far as national security goes (which is usually the biggest issue in races these days) I would say he is farther right wing than most.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I love the inclination around here for a supposed third party or candidate to sweep a bunch of states on the right, center, or left - when the chances of that happening are far less than even these candidates being nominated.