California by city

[H. Ross Peron]

So now that the supplement has been posted, here are the official city flips:

Trump 2016/Biden 2020 (19)

• SOLVANG (Santa Barbara County)
2016: Trump 46.55% — Clinton 45.37% = R+ 01.18
2020: Biden 53.05% — Trump 44.19% = D+ 08.86
SWING: D+ 10.04

What's even more impressive about the rapid Dem swing in Solvang, that it voted for Romney by a 13% margin in 2012!

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2012-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

It was the first time that Danish heritage city voted for a Democrat for President since its incorporation as a city. I believe the same for Simi Valley. The ole Gipper must be turning over in his grave now.

Uncle Joe did manage to flip a lot of GOP strongholds for the first time. My next project is going to be researching how many of the 19 Trump/Biden cities went (non-Atlas) blue for the first time. Solvang and Simi Valley have been confirmed.

Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, and Mission Viejo (all incorporated in late 1980s/early 1990s) are all very likely first time Dem flips nationaly.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

SNIP
• SIMI VALLEY (Ventura County)
2016: Trump 47.88% — Clinton 43.86% = R+ 04.02
2020: Biden 49.34% — Trump 48.45% = D+ 00.89
SWING: D+ 04.91

SNIP
[/b]

Even though I already knew this was true, just from Biden winning Mike's part, man, does this hurt.

[mileslunn]

SNIP
• SIMI VALLEY (Ventura County)
2016: Trump 47.88% — Clinton 43.86% = R+ 04.02
2020: Biden 49.34% — Trump 48.45% = D+ 00.89
SWING: D+ 04.91

SNIP
[/b]

Even though I already knew this was true, just from Biden winning Mike's part, man, does this hurt.

This is significant as this where Reagan's presidential library is.  He also stated Orange County is where all good Republicans go to die.  But not sure he is rolling in his grave or would be unhappy as doubt he would recognize today's GOP.  Maybe wouldn't support Democrats, but cannot see how he would support Trump.

[HAnnA MArin County]

After much research, here are the last times that (most of) the 19 Trump 2016/Biden 2020 cities voted for a Democrat for President:
• Crescent City: 2012 (Barack Obama 52.72% — Mitt Romney 41.47% = D+ 11.25)
• Placerville: 2008 (Obama 49.76% — John McCain 47.96% = D+ 01.80)
• La Verne: 1964 (Lyndon B. Johnson 52.69% — Barry M. Goldwater 47.31% = D+ 05.38)
• Banning: 1996 (Bill Clinton 46.27% — Bob Dole 43.75% — Ross Perot 8.22% = D+ 02.52)
• Hemet: 1992 (B. Clinton 40.65% — George H.W. Bush 39.81% — Perot 19.16% = D+ 00.84)
• Lake Elsinore: 2008 (Obama 50.74% — McCain 47.37% = D+ 03.37)

Bradbury, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, La Quinta, Palm Desert, Poway, Atascadero, Solvang, and Simi Valley all voted for a Democrat for the first time in 2020 for Joe Biden. So that's 11 cities where Donald Trump became the first Republican to lose since their respective incorporation dates as cities. "Sad!"

I was unable to track down 1960 and pre-1960 results broken down by city, so Brea and Coronado are the only two outstanding Trump/Biden cities for which we do not have enough definitive data as to when these two cities last voted for a Democrat for President, but we know it was before 1964.

[jimrtex]

Anyone have any update info on when the state plans to release the 'supplement to the statement of the vote" ?

April 7?

[Liberalrocks]

Anyone have any update info on when the state plans to release the 'supplement to the statement of the vote" ?

April 7?

Yes I see it on the Sec of State site now, thanks. That wait was way too long.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the Top 15 results by city for most support for and most opposition against Proposition 16 (ending the banning of affirmative action in governmental decisions). It failed statewide with 57.23 percent of the state voting against it.

Top five counties voting against Prop 16 were Lassen (87.25%), Modoc (84.70%), Tehama (83.81%), Shasta (82.74%) and Amador (81.33%) — all counties won by Donald Trump. Tulare County was the Trump county that had the smallest YES vote (71.94%).

Top five counties voting for Prop 16 were San Francisco (63.83%), Alameda (58.96%), Marin (55.65%), San Mateo (51.42%) and Santa Cruz (51.22%) with Los Angeles County (50.98%) rounding out all of the YES counties — all won by Joe Biden. Butte County was the Biden county that had the largest NO vote (70.16%). There were 29 Biden counties (Butte included) that rejected Prop 16. San Joaquin County was the Biden county that had the smallest NO vote (51.45%).

NO
• Taft                  88.59%
• Maricopa               86.33%
• Montague               85.94%
• Canyon Lake               85.93%
• Ione                  85.51%
• Susanville               84.13%
• Wheatland               83.73%
• Tehama                  83.72%   
• Anderson               83.17%
• Tulelake                  83.05%
• Shasta Lake               82.70%
• Alturas                  82.29%
• Norco                  82.17%   
• Ripon                  82.10%
• Loyalton                  81.99%   
*All of these cities voted for Trump. The Biden municipality that had the highest percentage voting NO was Placerville (71.86%), one of the 19 Trump 2016/Biden 2020 cities.

YES
• Berkeley               78.46%
• Oakland               76.11%
• Emeryville            72.51%
• Albany               72.22%
• Inglewood            71.73%
• El Cerrito            71.18%
• Richmond            68.33%
• Fairfax               67.97%
• East Palo Alto            65.85%
• San Pablo            65.77%
• Sebastopol            65.18%
• West Hollywood         65.12%
• Mill Valley            64.44%
• San Francisco            63.83%   
• Culver City            63.59%
*All cities won by Biden. No Trump municipalities voted for Proposition 16. The Trump municipality that had the lowest percentage voting NO was Westminster (63.40%), one of the three Hillary Rodham Clinton 2016/Trump 2020 cities.

Next up will be Proposition 14 (bonds to continue stem cell research). Will take any other requests for ballot measures.  

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd like to see a breakdown of Prop 22 (The rideshare one)

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the Top 15 results by city for most support and most opposition against Proposition 14 (bonds for embryonic stem cell research). It narrowly passed statewide with 51.09 percent of the state voting for it.

Top five counties voting against Prop 14 were Lassen (75.13%), Modoc (73.77%), Tehama (69.63%), Shasta (69.36%), and Glenn (67.03%) — all counties Trump handily won. Kern County was the Trump county that had the smallest NO vote (57.80%).

Top five counties voting for Prop 14 were Alameda (60.71%), San Mateo (58.37%), Alpine (57.48%), Marin (57.21%), and Santa Cruz (56.90%) — all counties Biden won.  Ventura County was the Biden county that had the smallest YES vote (50.36%). Sixteen Biden counties voted against Prop 14: ranging from Humboldt (50.85% NO) to Madera (61.33% NO).

YES
• San Joaquin         68.83%
• San Pablo         68.61%
• Inglewood         68.26%
• Emeryville         67.63%
• Calexico         67.08%
• East Palo Alto      66.59%
• Berkeley         66.26%
• Richmond         65.71%
• Davis            65.53%
• Oakland         65.41%
• Compton         65.19%
• Coachella         65.12%
• Palm Springs         63.80%
• Huntington Park      63.46%
• El Cerrito         63.39%
*All cities won by Biden. No Trump municipalities voted for Proposition 14. The Trump municipalities that had the lowest percentage voting NO were Twenty-nine Palms (50.28%), Barstow (50.72%), El Cajon (51.72%), California City (52.61%), and Blythe (52.83%).   

NO
• Montague         72.22%
• Rolling Hills         72.11%
• Taft            71.95%
• Canyon Lake         71.29%
• Susanville         71.10%
• Ione             70.35%
• Kingsburg          69.63%
• Maricopa         69.34%
• Ripon             68.95%
• Loomis           68.71%
• Alturas         68.70%
• Fort Jones         68.33%
• Willows         68.19%
• Villa Park         68.17%
• Norco             68.01%
*All of these cities voted for Trump. There were 132 Biden municipalities that rejected the proposition. The Biden municipalities that had the highest percentage voting NO were Palos Verdes Estates (65.86%), Rolling Hills Estates (63.23%), Ferndale (61.99%), San Marino (61.31%), and Atascadero (60.32%). The Biden municipalities that had the lowest percentage voting NO were Brawley (50.02%), Guadalupe and Escondido (50.05%), Palm Desert (50.06%), and Woodland and Newman (50.08%).

Interlocutor, Proposition 22 will be next.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Supplemental data, so no write-ins. Cities are highlighted by who won them in 2020.

Biggest Dem 2020-2016 swings
1.  Tulelake, Siskiyou                                D+17.18
2.  Point Arena, Mendocino                       D+15.64
3.  Bishop, Inyo                                         D+15.49
4.  Rancho Mirage, Riverside                    D+13.83
5.  Indian Wells, Riverside                        D+13.67
6.  Twentynine Palms, San Bernardino     D+13.16
7.  California City, Kern                             D+13.12
8.  Blue Lake, Humboldt                           D+12.71
9.  Truckee, Nevada                                  D+12.59
10. Rolling Hills, Los Angeles                   D+11.77

Biggest GOP 2020-2016 swings
1.  Calexico, Imperial                             R+31.16
2.  Westminster, Orange                        R+24.64
3.  Industry, Los Angeles                       R+22.30
4.  Garden Grove, Orange                      R+21.88
5.  Vernon, Los Angeles                         R+20.17
6.  Beverly Hills, Los Angeles                R+19.97
7.  Rosemead, Los Angeles                    R+19.95
8.  Livingston, Merced                           R+19.45
9.  Mendota, Fresno                               R+18.88
10. Delano, Kern                                    R+18.75



Biggest Dem 2020-2012 swings
1.  Atherton, San Mateo                            D+50.9
2.  Hillsborough, San Mateo                      D+46.67
3.  Ross, Marin                                          D+44.16
4.  Industry, Los Angeles                          D+40.97
5.  Belvedere, Marin                                  D+40.79
6.  San Marino, Los Angeles                      D+38.15
7.  Woodside, San Mateo                           D+37.74
8.  Palos Verdes Estates, Los Angeles      D+36.77
9.  Los Altos Hills, Santa Clara                  D+35.06
10. La Canada Flintridge, Los Angeles      D+34.93

Biggest GOP 2020-2012 swings
1.  Isleton, Sacramento                        R+33.14
2.  Calexico, Imperial                           R+27.35
3.  Needles, San Bernardino                 R+23.4
4.  Mendota, Fresno                              R+21.05
5.  Parlier, Fresno                                 R+20.74
6.  Clearlake, Lake                                R+18.98
7.  Coachella, Riverside                        R+18.97
8.  Rosemead, Los Angeles                   R+18.59
9.  Livingston, Merced                          R+18.55
10. South El Monte, Los Angeles           R+17.47



Biggest Dem 2020-2008 swings
1.  Vernon, Los Angeles                            D+49.97
2.  Industry, Los Angeles                          D+35.9
3.  San Marino, Los Angeles                      D+30.24
4.  Atherton, San Mateo                            D+29.56
5.  La Canada Flintridge, Los Angeles       D+25.94
6.  Rolling Hills Estates, Los Angeles        D+25.69
7.  Moraga, Contra Costa                           D+25.6
8.  Hillsborough, San Mateo                      D+25.22
9.  El Segundo, Los Angeles                      D+24.21
10. Palos Verdes Estates, Los Angeles     D+24.06

Biggest GOP 2020-2008 swings
1.  Weed, Siskiyou                                R+22.61
2.  Calexico, Imperial                           R+21.59
3.  Anderson, Shasta                            R+20.52
4.  Isleton, Sacramento                        R+20.34
5.  Needles, San Bernardino                 R+18.78
6.  Clearlake, Lake                                R+17.8
7.  Livingston, Merced                           R+15.37
8.  Red Bluff, Tehama                           R+15.32
9.  Susanville, Lassen                           R+15.06
10. Wheatland, Yuba                            R+14.99



Biggest Dem 2020-2004 swings
1.  Atherton, San Mateo                           D+48.27
2.  San Marino, Los Angeles                     D+45.91
3.  Hillsborough, San Mateo                     D+43.61
4.  Williams, Colusa                                 D+41.76
5.  Tustin, Orange                                    D+41.32
6.  Escondido, San Diego                         D+40.85
7.  Adelanto, San Bernardino                  D+40.67
8.  Moraga, Contra Costa                         D+39.63
9.  Lancaster, Los Angeles                      D+38.84
10. Vista, San Diego                                D+38.06


Biggest GOP 2020-2004 swings
1.  Needles, San Bernardino                R+14.18
2.  Beverly Hills, Los Angeles              R+13.84
3.  Clearlake, Lake                               R+11.55
4.  Anderson, Shasta                            R+10.54
5.  Weed, Siskiyou                               R+10.27
6.  Isleton, Sacramento                         R+7.73
7.  Compton, Los Angeles                      R+6.29
8.  Susanville, Lassen                            R+5.63
9.  Paradise, Butte                                 R+4.86
10. Shasta Lake, Shasta                         R+4.7

[Roll Roons]

Crazy that Beverly Hills swung so hard towards Hillary and then towards Trump. What happened? This is the quintessential stomping ground for rich Hollywood types.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Crazy that Beverly Hills swung so hard towards Hillary and then towards Trump. What happened? This is the quintessential stomping ground for rich Hollywood types.

I guess there is a big disconnect between what kinds of people Beverly Hills is know to have as residents, and the overall Beverly Hills electorate, taken as a whole.

[Wormless Gourd]

Interesting note about Paradise in Butte county is that the entire city burnt down 2 days after the 2018 midterms. It cast 68% fewer raw votes 2020 vs 2016, but got more conservative by about 5 points.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Crazy that Beverly Hills swung so hard towards Hillary and then towards Trump. What happened? This is the quintessential stomping ground for rich Hollywood types.

Not quite. It's the quintessential stomping ground for America's largest Persian population.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Per Interlocutor’s request, here’s the breakdown of Proposition 22: App-Based Drivers as Contractors & Labor Policies Initiative. It passed statewide with 58.63 percent of the vote.

Top five counties voting for Prop 22 were Sutter (70.34%), Shasta (70.08%), Glenn (69.66%), Lassen (69.59%), and Placer (69.33%) — all counties won by Donald Trump. Del Norte County was the Trump county that had the lowest YES vote (57.97%).

Only eight counties voted against Prop 22: San Francisco (59.51%), Alpine (55.74%), Alameda (54.92%), Humboldt (54.25%), Marin (53.30%), Santa Cruz (53.12%), Mendocino (52.91%), and San Mateo (50.30%) — all counties won by Joe Biden. Sonoma County was the Biden county that had the lowest YES vote (50.17%); Orange County was the Biden county that had the strongest YES vote (65.92%).

YES
• Canyon Lake         79.05%
• Indian Wells         77.41%
• Villa Park         76.41%
• Rolling Hills         75.25%
• Newport Beach      74.82%
• Taft            74.01%
• Yorba Linda         73.95%
• Wheatland         73.20%
• Loomis         73.00%
• San Clemente         72.97%
• Ripon            72.85%
• Norco            72.27%
• Kingsburg         72.25%
• Coronado         72.07%
• San Juan Capistrano      71.96%
*All cities won by Trump with the exception of Coronado (one of the 19 Trump 2016/Biden 2020 cities). The five Trump cities with the lowest YES vote were Etna (55.03%), Rio Dell (58.08%), Dorris (58.24%), Fortuna (58.41%), and Tulelake (58.82%).

NO
• Berkeley         76.06%
• Albany            72.68%
• El Cerrito         69.28%
• Fairfax            68.96%
• Arcata            68.73%
• Oakland         64.74%
• Santa Cruz         64.54%
• Sebastopol         64.20%
• Point Arena         64.19%
• Emeryville         63.41%
• Davis            61.40%
• Trinidad         61.38%
• San Anselmo         60.71%
• San Francisco         59.51%
• Fort Bragg         58.20%
*All cities won by Joe Biden. No Trump municipalities voted against Proposition 22. The five Biden cities with the lowest YES vote were Hercules (50.04%), San Mateo (50.14%), South San Francisco (50.21%), Larkspur (50.31%), and Bishop (50.36%).

Proposition 17 will be next.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Very interesting dichotomy between the well-off (+ more techy) NorCal cities & well-off SoCal cities, along with the strong partisan towns like Norco & Arcata. I wonder how much of Prop 22 was tied to geography, age and/or income.

Thank you very much!

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the results for Proposition 17 (Voting Rights Restoration for Persons on Parole Amendment). It passed with 58.55% of the vote statewide.

Top five counties voting in favor of Prop 17 were: San Francisco (78.08%), Marin (74.52%), Alameda (73.94%), Santa Cruz (71.77%), and San Mateo (67.31%) — all counties won by Joe Biden. No counties won by Donald Trump voted YES. Inyo County was the Biden county that had the most opposition (53.70% NO) while Orange County was the Biden county that had the least opposition (50.22% NO). 

Top five counties voting against Prop 17 were: Lassen (74.61%), Modoc (70.11%), Tehama (67.70%), Glenn (66.50%), and Shasta (65.97%) — all counties that Trump won. Trinity County was the Trump county with the least opposition to Prop 17 (51.88%).

YES
• Berkeley         92.26%
• Oakland         88.53%
• Emeryville         87.01%
• Albany         85.73%
• Fairfax         85.60%
• Inglewood         85.59%
• El Cerrito         83.93%
• Arcata         83.88%
• Mill Valley         83.14%
• East Palo Alto      83.05%
• Richmond         82.76%
• Sebastopol         82.31%
• Compton         82.15%
• San Anselmo         81.94%
• Point Arena         81.78%
*All cities won by Biden. There were only four Trump cities that voted for Prop 17: California City (50.14%), Industry (51.16%), Barstow (53.54%), and Twenty-nine Palms (55.10%). The five Biden cities with the least support for Prop 17 were Clayton (50.12%), Upland (50.15%), Redlands (50.26%), Holtville (50.29%), and Laguna Woods (50.32%).

NO
• Taft            78.22%
• Canyon Lake         73.43%
• Ione            71.77%
• Maricopa         71.31%
• Susanville         70.57%
• Kingsburg         70.07%
• Norco            69.01%
• Montague         68.95%
• Escalon         68.84%
• Ripon            68.84%
• Wheatland         68.39%
• Alturas         68.22%
• Exeter            67.65%
• Tehachapi         67.07%
• Tehama         66.21%
*All cities that Trump won. The five Trump cities with the least opposition to Prop 17 were El Cajon (50.11%), Sonora (50.92%), Westminster (51.15%), Needles (52.08%), and Colfax (53.89%).

*There were 71 Biden cities that voted against Prop 17. Top five Biden cities with the least rejection were Modesto (50.05%), Sanger (50.09%), Newman (50.27%), Lakeport (50.31%), and Eastvale (50.53%). Top five Biden cities with the most opposition to Prop 17 were Dos Palos (58.37%), Shafter (57.30%), Gustine (56.71%), San Dimas (55.94%), and La Verne (55.71%).

[Tintrlvr]

Crazy that Beverly Hills swung so hard towards Hillary and then towards Trump. What happened? This is the quintessential stomping ground for rich Hollywood types.

I guess there is a big disconnect between what kinds of people Beverly Hills is know to have as residents, and the overall Beverly Hills electorate, taken as a whole.

Right. Beverly Hills is not, actually, the "quintessential stomping ground for rich Hollywood types" these days, if it ever was. "Hollywood elites" (big-name stars, directors, producers, etc.) are much more predominant in Hollywood Hills (the LA neighborhood to the northeast of Beverly Hills). Beverly Hills is dominated electorally by a specific demographic group: Persian Jews. Probably the most similar voting patterns in the country would be found in what I think is the only other area where Persian Jews predominate, Great Neck, NY, which also tends to be quite swingy between the parties and not in ways that necessarily align with national swings.

[Wormless Gourd]

Some swing calculations I did for LA county unincorporated communities. These aren't perfectly lined up with existing CDPs, so take with a grain of salt. Source for all is LA statement of vote.
Excluded communities where it seems like the county resized/redefined communities between '16 and '20.

Some North LA county Republican redoubts;

Acton
Vote total: 6,192
2016: 26.36% D, 69.35% R
2020: 32.51% D, 65.81% R
9.68 point shift towards Democrats.

Agua Dulce
Vote total: 2,362
2016: 27.52% D, 66.92% R
2020: 32.68% D, 65.58% R
6.5 point shift towards Democrats

Antelope
Vote total: 1,092
2016: 25.61% D, 68.28% R
2020: 33.15% D, 64.93% R
10.9 point shift towards Democrats

Canyon Country/Sand Canyon
Vote total: 1,388
2016: 45.30% D, 48.14% R
2020: 45.24% D, 52.02% R
3.93 point shift towards Republicans

Castaic
Vote total: 14,740
2016: 43.83% D, 50.34% R
2020: 46.84% D, 51.04% R
2.31 point shift towards Democrats

Quartz Hill
Vote total: 6,940
31.21% D, 62.59% R
37.46% D, 60.43% R
8.41 point shift towards Democrats

Some dense or large urban/suburban areas;

Hacienda Heights
Vote total: 24,847
2016: 64.51% D, 31.50% R
2020: 62.97% D, 35.01% R
5.05 point shift towards Republicans

East Los Angeles
Vote total: 21,711
2016: 86.94% D, 7.73% R
2020: 82.71% D, 14.79% R
11.29 point shift towards Republicans

Rowland Heights
Vote total: 18,372
2016: 61.00% D, 33.49% R
2020: 59.62% D, 38.79% R
6.68 point shift toward Republicans

South San Gabriel
Vote total: 3,321
2016: 74.27% D, 20.13% R
2020: 67.90% D, 30.47% R
16.71 point shift towards Republicans

Ladera Heights
Vote total: 6,683
2016: 90.38% D, 6.58% R
2020: 91.64% D, 7.41% R
0.44 point shift towards Democrats

La Crescenta
Vote total: 8,047
2016: 59.80% D, 34.03% R
2020: 63.34% D, 34.48% R
3.08 point shift towards Democrats

Florence
Vote total: 14,538
2016: 91.35% D, 4.74% R
2020: 84.16% D, 13.65% R
16.1 point shift towards Republicans

Valinda
Vote total:
2016: 78.42% D, 15.99% R
2020: 72.92% D, 24.91% R
14.42 point shift towards Republicans

West Athens
Vote total: 14,874
2016: 92.20% D, 4.21% R
2020: 89.27% D, 8.68% R
7.4 point shift towards Republicans

Views Park
Vote total: 6,299
2016: 92.38% D, 4.16% R
2020: 93.54% D, 5.30% R
0.01 point shift towards Democrats

Some wealthy white areas;

Topanga
Vote total: 5,266
2016: 77.04% D, 16.21% R, 4.68% Jill Stein
2020: 80.23% D, 17.89% R
1.51 point shift toward Democrats

Stevenson Ranch
Vote total: 7,618
2016: 51.22% D, 43.32% R
2020: 56.83% D, 41.60% R
7.33 point shift towards Democrats

Marina del Rey
Vote total: 5,850
2016: 74.97% D, 23.04% R
2020: 74.02% D, 20.80% R
1.28 point shift towards Republicans

These are just a few, I can post some more if requested.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Since there were no other statewide offices up for election on the ballot in 2020, I decided to take a look at the 19 Trump-to-Biden cities to see how they voted in their respective congressional races.

CRESCENT CITY
President: Biden 49.40% — Trump 47.20% = D+ 02.20
U.S. House (CA-02): TBD

PLACERVILLE
President: Biden 51.23% — Trump 46.04% = D+ 05.19
U.S. House (CA-04): Bryne S. Kennedy 53.83% — Tom M. McClintock 46.17% = D+ 07.66

BRADBURY
President: Biden 51.70% — Trump 46.90% = D+ 04.80
U.S. House (CA-27): Judy Chu 50.26% — J.J. Nalbandian 49.74% = D+ 00.52

LA VERNE
President: Biden 50.53% — Trump 47.52% = D+ 03.01
U.S. House (CA-32): Joshua M. Scott 50.79% — Grace Napolitano 49.21% = R+ 01.58

BREA
President: Biden 50.52% — Trump 47.54% = D+ 02.98
U.S. House (CA-39): Young Kim 55.55% — Gil Cisneros 44.45% = R+ 11.10

LAGUNA HILLS
President: Biden 51.98% — Trump 46.13% = D+ 05.85
U.S. House (CA-45): Katie Porter 50.09% — Greg Raths 49.91% = D+ 00.18

LAGUNA NIGUEL
President: Biden 51.41% — Trump 46.71% = D+ 04.70
U.S. House (CA-48): Michelle E. Park Steel 50.08% — Harley E. Rouda 49.92% = R+ 00.16

LAKE FOREST
President: Biden 52.38% — Trump 45.40% = D+ 06.98
U.S. House (CA-45): Katie Porter 51.12% — Greg Raths 48.88% = D+ 02.24

MISSION VIEJO
President: Biden 49.96% — Trump 47.98% = D+ 01.98
U.S. House (CA-45): Greg Raths 52.35% — Katie Porter 47.65% = R+ 04.70
U.S. House (CA-49): Mike T. Levin 52.89% — Brian Maryott 47.11% = D+ 05.78
*Most of Mission Viejo is in CA-45; only a small sliver extends into CA-49.

BANNING
President: Biden 50.20% — Trump 47.77% = D+ 02.43
U.S. House (CA-36): Raul Ruiz 52.96% — Erin Cruz 47.04% = D+ 05.92

HEMET
President: Biden 49.25% — Trump 48.80% = D+ 00.45
U.S. House (CA-36): Raul Ruiz 52.12% — Erin Cruz 47.88% = D+ 04.24

LA QUINTA
President: Biden 50.18% — Trump 48.23% = D+ 01.95
U.S. House (CA-36): Raul Ruiz 54.63% — Erin Cruz 45.37% = D+ 09.26

LAKE ELSINORE
President: Biden 49.70% — Trump 48.38% = D+ 01.32
U.S. House (CA-42): Ken S. Calvert 52.00% — William O’Mara 48.00% = R+ 04.00

PALM DESERT
President: Biden 53.04% — Trump 45.44% = D+ 07.60
U.S. House (CA-36): Raul Ruiz 57.69% — Erin Cruz 42.31% = D+ 15.38

CORONADO
President: Biden 52.57% — Trump 45.31% = D+ 07.26
U.S. House (CA-52): Jim DeBello 51.18% — Scott H. Peters 48.82% = R+ 02.36

POWAY
President: Biden 50.99% — Trump 46.41% = D+ 04.58
U.S. House (CA-52): Jim DeBello 50.27% — Scott H. Peters 49.73% = R+ 00.54

ATASCADERO
President: Biden 49.37% — Trump 47.87% = D+ 01.50
U.S. House (CA-24): Andy Caldwell 51.75% — Salud Carbajal 48.25% = R+ 03.50

SOLVANG
President: Biden 53.05% — Trump 44.19% = D+ 08.86
U.S. House (CA-24): Andy Caldwell 51.07% — Salud Carbajal 48.93% = R+ 02.14

SIMI VALLEY
President: Biden 49.34% — Trump 48.45% = D+ 00.89
U.S. House (CA-25): Mike Garcia 54.22% — Christy Smith 45.78% = R+ 08.44
U.S. House (CA-26): Julia Brownley 54.13% — Rhonda Baldwin-Kennedy 45.87% = D+ 08.26
*Most of Simi Valley is in CA-25; only a small portion is in CA-26
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Here are the three Clinton-to-Trump cities:
 
FOUNTAIN VALLEY
President: Trump 50.98% — Biden 47.11% = R+ 03.87
U.S. House (CA-48): Michelle E. Park Steel 53.35% — Harley E. Rouda 46.65% = R+ 06.70

WESTMINSTER
President: Trump 53.81% — Biden 44.66% = R+ 09.15
U.S. House (CA-47): Alan S. Lowenthal 11,768 (50.22%) — John Briscoe 11,666 (49.78%) = D+ 00.44
U.S. House (CA-48): Michelle E. Park Steel 9,651 (57.16%) — Harley E. Rouda 7,233 (42.84%) = R+ 14.32

PORTERVILLE
President: Trump 49.01% — Biden 48.68% = R+ 00.33
U.S. House (CA-23): Kevin O. McCarthy 54.10% — Kim Mangone 45.90% = R+ 08.20

[perpetual_cynic]

I really don't believe the swing in Los Angeles County is significant when considering the results from 2012 and 2008.

[perpetual_cynic]

I really do believe that the important thing is that Dems didn't decrease their vote share from 2016. I think Dems went all out for Clinton in 2016 in CA, but Reps not so much for Trump. There was a 2.5% R swing in San Francisco but Biden received the highest share ever for a Democrat. LA proper is just returning to voting norms pre-2016. LA County is still more Dem than it was pre-2016.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are some breakdowns by congressional districts (write-ins not included).

Number of Districts Carried
Joe Biden: 46 (86.79%)
Donald J. Trump: 7 (13.21%)

Best Districts by Candidate
Biden: CA-13 (Biden 88.94% — Trump 08.99% = D+ 79.95)
Trump: CA-23 (Trump 57.11% — Biden 40.49% = R+ 16.62)
Jo Jorgensen: CA-04 (1.59%)
Howie Hawkins: CA-13 (0.75%)
Rocky De La Fuente: CA-44 (0.60%)
Gloria E. La Riva: CA-40 (0.63%)

Results (Most D to Most R)
CA-13 (Barbara Lee, D): Biden 88.94% — Trump 08.99% = D+ 79.95
CA-12 (Nancy Pelosi, D): Biden 86.09% — Trump 11.88% = D+ 74.21
CA-37 (Karen Bass, D): Biden 84.33% — Trump 13.83% = D+ 70.50
CA-34 (Jimmy Gomez, D): Biden 80.80% — Trump 16.90% = D+ 63.90
CA-44 (Nanette Diaz Barragan, D): Biden 78.42% — Trump 19.18% = D+ 59.24
CA-14 (Jackie Speier, D): Biden 77.66% — Trump 20.49% = D+ 57.17
CA-40 (Lucille Roybal-Allard, D): Biden 77.09% — Trump 20.61% = D+ 56.48
CA-43 (Maxine Waters, D): Biden 76.93% — Trump 20.93% = D+ 56.00
CA-18 (Anna Eshoo, D): Biden 76.37% — Trump 21.31% = D+ 55.06
CA-11 (Mark DeSaulnier, D): Biden 74.33% — Trump 23.60% = D+ 50.73
CA-29 (Tony Cardenas, D): Biden 74.10% — Trump 23.67% = D+ 50.43
CA-02 (Jared Huffman, D): Biden 73.65% — Trump 23.92% = D+ 49.73
CA-20 (Jimmy Panetta, D): Biden 72.72% — Trump 25.03% = D+ 47.69
CA-05 (Mike Thompson, D): Biden 72.45% — Trump 25.26% = D+ 47.19
CA-17 (Ro Khanna, D): Biden 72.49% — Trump 25.55% = D+ 46.94
CA-15 (Eric Swalwell, D): Biden 71.50% — Trump 26.42% = D+ 45.08
CA-28 (Adam Schiff, D): Biden 70.89% — Trump 27.24% = D+ 43.65
CA-06 (Doris Matsui, D): Biden 70.25% — Trump 27.23% = D+ 43.02
CA-19 (Zoe Lofgren, D): Biden 70.03% — Trump 27.94% = D+ 42.09
CA-33 (Ted Lieu, D): Biden 69.02% — Trump 29.04% = D+ 39.98
CA-30 (Brad Sherman, D): Biden 68.70% — Trump 29.44% = D+ 39.26
CA-27 (Judy Chu, D): Biden 67.17% — Trump 30.84% = D+ 36.33
CA-53 (Sara Jacobs, D): Biden 66.95% — Trump 30.88% = D+ 36.07
CA-51 (Juan Vargas, D): Biden 66.86% — Trump 30.88% = D+ 35.98
CA-38 (Linda Sanchez, D): Biden 65.57% — Trump 32.27% = D+ 33.30
CA-35 (Norma Torres, D): Biden 65.14% — Trump 32.64% = D+ 32.50
CA-32 (Grace Napolitano, D): Biden 65.15% — Trump 32.81% = D+ 32.34
CA-46 (Lou Correa, D): Biden 64.32% — Trump 33.51% = D+ 30.81
CA-52 (Scott Peters, D): Biden 63.39% — Trump 34.20% = D+ 29.19
CA-47 (Alan Lowenthal, D): Biden 62.45% — Trump 35.32% = D+ 27.13
CA-41 (Mark Takano, D): Biden 61.68% — Trump 36.14% = D+ 25.54
CA-26 (Julia Brownley, D): Biden 61.38% — Trump 36.49% = D+ 24.89
CA-24 (Salud Carbajal, D): Biden 60.72% — Trump 36.90% = D+ 23.82
CA-16 (Jim Costa, D): Biden 58.84% — Trump 38.92% = D+ 19.92
CA-31 (Pete Aguilar, D): Biden 58.80% — Trump 38.89% = D+ 19.91
CA-09 (Jerry McNerney, D): Biden 57.91% — Trump 39.91% = D+ 18.00
CA-07 (Ami Bera, D): Biden 55.65% — Trump 41.85% = D+ 13.80
CA-36 (Raul Ruiz, D): Biden 55.94% — Trump 42.31% = D+ 13.63
CA-49 (Mike Levin, D): Biden 55.23% — Trump 42.50% = D+ 12.73
CA-03 (John Garamendi, D): Biden 54.88% — Trump 42.65% = D+ 12.23
CA-45 (Katie Porter, D): Biden 54.62% — Trump 43.32% = D+ 11.30
CA-21 (David Valadao, R): Biden 54.38% — Trump 43.51% = D+ 10.87
CA-39 (Young Kim, R): Biden 54.11% — Trump 43.96% = D+ 10.15
CA-25 (Mike Garcia, R): Biden 53.95% — Trump 43.85% = D+ 10.10
CA-10 (Josh Harder, D): Biden 50.33% — Trump 47.44% = D+ 02.89
CA-48 (Michelle Park Steel, R): Biden 49.73% — Trump 48.25% = D+ 01.48
CA-22 (Devin Nunes, R): Trump 51.65% — Biden 46.24% = R+ 05.41
CA-42 (Ken Calvert, R): Trump 52.74% — Biden 45.35% = R+ 07.39
CA-50 (Darrell Issa, R): Trump 52.71% — Biden 45.00% = R+ 07.71
CA-04 (Tom McClintock, R): Trump 53.69% — Biden 43.95% = R+ 09.74
CA-08 (Jay Obernolte, R): Trump 54.05% — Biden 43.58% = R+ 10.47
CA-01 (Doug LaMalfa, R): Trump 56.35% — Biden 41.18% = R+ 15.17
CA-23 (Kevin McCarthy, R): Trump 57.11% — Biden 40.49% = R+ 16.62

Top 10 2016-2020 Swings
Biggest Democratic Swings
CA-50 (Darrell E. Issa, R)
2016: Trump 54.57% — Clinton 39.56% = R+ 15.01
2020: Trump 52.71% — Biden 45.00% = R+ 07.71
SWING: D+ 07.30

CA-52 (Scott H. Peters, D)
2016: Clinton 58.11% — Trump 35.55% = D+ 22.56
2020: Biden 63.39% — Trump 34.20% = D+ 29.19
SWING: D+ 06.63

CA-45 (Katie Porter, D)
2016: Clinton 49.84% — Trump 44.39% = D+ 05.45
2020: Biden 54.62% — Trump 43.32% = D+ 11.30
SWING: D+ 05.85

CA-23 (Kevin O. McCarthy, R)
2016: Trump 58.13% — Clinton 36.07% = R+ 22.06
2020: Trump 57.11% — Biden 40.49% = R+ 16.62
SWING: D+ 05.44

CA-49 (Mike T. Levin, D)
2016: Clinton 50.66% — Trump 43.18% = D+ 07.48
2020: Biden 55.23% — Trump 42.50% = D+ 12.73
SWING: D+ 05.25

CA-04 (Tom M. McClintock, R)
2016: Trump 54.03% — Clinton 39.27% = R+ 14.76
2020: Trump 53.69% — Biden 43.95% = R+ 09.74
SWING: D+ 05.02

CA-36 (Raul Ruiz, D)
2016: Clinton 52.15% — Trump 43.41% = D+ 08.74
2020: Biden 55.94% — Trump 42.31% = D+ 13.63
SWING: D+ 04.89

CA-08 (Jay P. Obernolte, R)
2016: Trump 54.74% — Clinton 39.61% = R+ 15.13
2020: Trump 54.05% — Biden 43.58% = R+ 10.47
SWING: D+ 04.66

CA-42 (Ken S. Calvert, R)
2016: Trump 53.36% — Clinton 41.41% = R+ 11.95
2020: Trump 52.74% — Biden 45.35% = R+ 07.39
SWING: D+ 04.56

CA-01 (Doug L. LaMalfa, R)
2016: Trump 56.17% — Clinton 36.54% = R+ 19.63
2020: Trump 56.35% — Biden 41.18% = R+ 15.17
SWING: D+ 04.46

Biggest Republican Swings
CA-51 (Juan C. Vargas, D)
2016: Clinton 71.85% — Trump 22.79% = D+ 49.06
2020: Biden 66.86% — Trump 30.88% = D+ 35.98
SWING: R+ 13.08

CA-40 (Lucille E. Roybal-Allard, D)
2016: Clinton 82.25% — Trump 12.80% = D+ 69.45
2020: Biden 77.09% — Trump 20.61% = D+ 56.48
SWING: R+ 12.97

CA-44 (Nanette Diaz Barragan, D)
2016: Clinton 83.04% — Trump 12.27% = D+ 70.77
2020: Biden 78.42% — Trump 19.18% = D+ 59.24
SWING: R+ 11.53

CA-29 (Tony Cardenas, D)
2016: Clinton 77.74% — Trump 16.80% = D+ 60.94
2020: Biden 74.10% — Trump 23.67% = D+ 50.43
SWING: R+ 10.51

CA-19 (Zoe Lofgren, D)
2016: Clinton 72.91% — Trump 21.49% = D+ 51.42
2020: Biden 70.03% — Trump 27.94% = D+ 42.09
SWING: R+ 09.33

CA-34 (Jimmy C. Gomez, D)
2016: Clinton 83.56% — Trump 10.72% = D+ 72.84
2020: Biden 80.80% — Trump 16.90% = D+ 63.90
SWING: R+ 08.94

CA-35 (Norma J. Torres, D)
2016: Clinton 67.74% — Trump 26.95% = D+ 40.79
2020: Biden 65.14% — Trump 32.64% = D+ 32.50
SWING: R+ 08.29

CA-46 (Lou Correa, D)
2016: Clinton 66.26% — Trump 27.89% = D+ 38.37
2020: Biden 64.32% — Trump 33.51% = D+ 30.81
SWING: R+ 07.56

CA-32 (Grace Napolitano, D)
2016: Clinton 66.56% — Trump 27.69% = D+ 38.87
2020: Biden 65.15% — Trump 32.81% = D+ 32.34
SWING: R+ 06.53

CA-17 (Ro Khanna, D)
2016: Clinton 73.91% — Trump 20.48% = D+ 53.43
2020: Biden 72.49% — Trump 25.55% = D+ 46.94
SWING: R+ 06.49

Presidential vs. Congressional MOVs
Here we will take a look at how the presidential election at the top of the ticket affected the congressional races down-ballot in 46 out of the 53 districts (excluded are the seven districts in which no Republican congressional candidate made it to the general election ballot and in which case it was Democratic members-vs.-members in CA-12, CA-18, CA-29, CA-34, CA-38, CA-44, and CA-53).

Then-President Donald J. Trump ran ahead of congressional Republicans in the following 19 (41.30%) districts ranked from highest to lowest:
ο CA-10 (Ted Howze): Trump+ 07.43
ο CA-36 (Erin Cruz): Trump+ 07.05
ο CA-46 (James S. Waters): Trump+ 06.69
ο CA-35 (Mike Cargile): Trump+ 06.16
ο CA-20 (Jeff Gorman): Trump+ 05.87
ο CA-05 (Scott Giblin): Trump+ 04.99
ο CA-06 (Chris Bish): Trump+ 03.66
ο CA-27 (Johnny J. Nalbandian): Trump+ 03.23
ο CA-31 (Agnes Gibboney): Trump+ 02.67
ο CA-41 (Aja Smith): Trump+ 02.52
ο CA-02 (Dale K. Mensing): Trump+ 01.75
ο CA-28 (Eric Early): Trump+ 01.67
ο CA-14 (Ran S. Petel): Trump+ 01.41
ο CA-37 (Errol Webber): Trump+ 01.38
ο CA-19 (Justin James Aguilera): Trump+ 01.27
ο CA-01 (Doug L. LaMalfa*): Trump+ 01.19
ο CA-32 (Joshua M. Scott): Trump+ 00.82
ο CA-13 (Konstantine Nikka-Shar Piterman): Trump+ 00.79
ο CA-51 (Juan M. Hidalgo, Jr.): Trump+ 00.62
*Denotes incumbent

Former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden ran ahead of congressional Democrats in the following 27 (58.70%) districts ranked from highest to lowest:
ο CA-43 (Maxine Waters*): Biden+ 12.64
ο CA-21 (T.J. Cox*): Biden+ 11.77
ο CA-39 (Gil R. Cisneros*): Biden+ 11.35
ο CA-40 (Lucille E. Roybal-Allard*): Biden+ 11.00
ο CA-25 (Christy Smith): Biden+ 10.20
ο CA-23 (Kim Mangone): Biden+ 07.66
ο CA-42 (Liam O'Mara): Biden+ 06.87
ο CA-24 (Salud Carbajal*): Biden+ 06.50
ο CA-49 (Mike T. Levin*): Biden+ 06.47
ο CA-52 (Scott H. Peters*): Biden+ 06.03
ο CA-33 (Ted W. Lieu*): Biden+ 04.82
ο CA-11 (Mark J. DeSaulnier*): Biden+ 04.75
ο CA-45 (Katie Porter*): Biden+ 04.38
ο CA-17 (Ro Khanna*): Biden+ 04.24
ο CA-26 (Julia Brownley*): Biden+ 03.73
ο CA-48 (Harley E. Rouda*): Biden+ 03.60
ο CA-15 (Eric M. Swalwell*): Biden+ 03.28
ο CA-22 (Phil Arballo): Biden+ 03.05
ο CA-03 (John R. Garamendi*): Biden+ 02.89
ο CA-09 (Jerry M. McNerney*): Biden+ 02.84
ο CA-04 (Bryne S. Kennedy): Biden+ 02.16
ο CA-08 (Christine Bubser): Biden+ 01.65
ο CA-16 (Jim M. Costa*): Biden+ 01.16
ο CA-47 (Alan S. Lowenthal): Biden+ 00.59
ο CA-07 (Ami B. Bera*): Biden+ 00.56
ο CA-30 (Brad J. Sherman*): Biden+ 00.30
ο CA-50 (Ammar Campa-Najjar): Biden+ 00.19
*Incumbent
Purple indicates seats that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Interesting Takeaways
ο Six out of the seven congressional districts that Donald Trump won swung Democratic (the lone exception being CA-48 which went from Clinton+ 01.71 to Biden+ 01.48, a 0.23 R swing)
ο Joe Biden cracked at least 40% in every congressional district
ο Rep. Doug LaMalfa (CA-01) was the only Republican incumbent to run behind Trump on the ticket, albeit narrowly