What if Florida and Texas switch places in the Republican coalition?

[Red Wall]

Basically Florida becomes a reliable Republican state (as Republican as Virginia is democrat) between an influx of both conservative retirees and immigrants while Texas becomes a lean R state that can go dem under the right circumstances.

Obviously that means a net 9 (probably 10 in 2024) EV loss but it can be offset by brining another midwestern state to the R camp like Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, with Wisconsin being the most likely candidate.

Will that happen?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

[Pericles]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

[EastwoodS]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

I think FL and TX becoming the same thing isn’t too far fetched.

[Person Man]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

I think FL and TX becoming the same thing isn’t too far fetched.

Democrats have to do what they have to do to stay competitive in at least one.

[EastwoodS]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

I think FL and TX becoming the same thing isn’t too far fetched.

Democrats have to do what they have to do to stay competitive in at least one.

As with Republicans too

[Tekken_Guy]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

What about Rick Scott in 2024 (assuming he doesn't run for president)?

[Skill and Chance]

Ehhh, I think if Texas actually flips, it's gone like Virginia, not a protracted fight like Arizona or Nevada.  Houston having the votes to squash any Dem campaign seen as too anti-oil if it wanted to does make the situation a bit more complicated, but at the end of the day, either I-35 outvotes rural Texas or it doesn't.

Also, I'm way more open to the idea of 7-10% Republican wins becoming normal in Florida than most people here, but a 2:1 Republican blowout like Texas in 2004?!

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

What about Rick Scott in 2024 (assuming he doesn't run for president)?

Probably 4-8% or so.

[Red Wall]

Ehhh, I think if Texas actually flips, it's gone like Virginia, not a protracted fight like Arizona or Nevada.  Houston having the votes to squash any Dem campaign seen as too anti-oil if it wanted to does make the situation a bit more complicated, but at the end of the day, either I-35 outvotes rural Texas or it doesn't.

Also, I'm way more open to the idea of 7-10% Republican wins becoming normal in Florida than most people here, but a 2:1 Republican blowout like Texas in 2004?!

Hence why I went with the Virginis comparison. I know Republican margins in Florida akin to Bush's in Texas are impossible, even if the candidate is from Florida.

[Devils30]

Ehhh, I think if Texas actually flips, it's gone like Virginia, not a protracted fight like Arizona or Nevada.  Houston having the votes to squash any Dem campaign seen as too anti-oil if it wanted to does make the situation a bit more complicated, but at the end of the day, either I-35 outvotes rural Texas or it doesn't.

Also, I'm way more open to the idea of 7-10% Republican wins becoming normal in Florida than most people here, but a 2:1 Republican blowout like Texas in 2004?!

Could happen in FL if Palm Beach becomes even and Rs continue to make gains in Dade, Broward.

[Chips]

Would be kind of interesting to see...

[OSR stands with Israel]

So basically return to where both states were from 1960-1988

[OneJ]

Basically Florida becomes a reliable Republican state (as Republican as Virginia is democrat) between an influx of both conservative retirees and immigrants while Texas becomes a lean R state that can go dem under the right circumstances.

Obviously that means a net 9 (probably 10 in 2024) EV loss but it can be offset by brining another midwestern state to the R camp like Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, with Wisconsin being the most likely candidate.

Will that happen?

Hmmm...well remember that the retirees are mostly Boomers and on up. Their influence on elections in general will decline over the years so you'd have to keep an eye on Gen X'ers who'll likely won't be as influential partially due to smaller size and being somewhat less Republican than Boomers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX isn't a swing state, but FL we are watching very closely to se if Crist can get momentum for the Gov race a six pt race in a state like NH where Sununu leads and in a state like FL is nothing for 500 days

Crist and SHAHEEN were down by that much in an R plus 5 yr in 2014 and Shaheen won and Crist barely lost. Hassan and Crist can win split voting

D's are watching FL very closely because Crist is an elderly guy just like Biden is and. DeSantis is a younger guy, potential matchup for 2024

[TodayJunior]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

No, No, No, No, NOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

No, No, No, No, NOOOOOOOOOOOO

DeSantis is up 10 in Dem-Biased Polls against the best Dem Candidates.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

I think FL and TX becoming the same thing isn’t too far fetched.

If they’re going to be comfortably Republican, it’ll be for quite different reasons. If TX became a retiree hotspot to the extent FL is, that would imply fewer people retiring to Florida to begin with.

[Person Man]

Basically Florida becomes a reliable Republican state (as Republican as Virginia is democrat) between an influx of both conservative retirees and immigrants while Texas becomes a lean R state that can go dem under the right circumstances.

Obviously that means a net 9 (probably 10 in 2024) EV loss but it can be offset by brining another midwestern state to the R camp like Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, with Wisconsin being the most likely candidate.

Will that happen?

Hmmm...well remember that the retirees are mostly Boomers and on up. Their influence on elections in general will decline over the years so you'd have to keep an eye on Gen X'ers who'll likely won't be as influential partially due to smaller size and being somewhat less Republican than Boomers.

Well there’s that and the fact that Florida start attracting real industry from New York the way Texas is from California. If that happens, the rank and file associates and minor senior people flowing in might cause trends to reverse or accelerate.

[Person Man]

Florida is a pretty urban and diverse state, even if it's slightly less educated than the nation, so it's weird for it to become a solidly Republican state.

I think FL and TX becoming the same thing isn’t too far fetched.

If they’re going to be comfortably Republican, it’ll be for quite different reasons. If TX became a retiree hotspot to the extent FL is, that would imply fewer people retiring to Florida to begin with.

I could see Florida and Texas doing what Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona were doing between 1998 and 2006. Basically being a Red Wall that fools’ gold to Democrats. Wasn’t that what New York was in the 1920s. If we are entering the Roaring 20s Electric Bugaloo, Texas and Florida would make great mascots for them. Of course, this could also be the eventual graveyard of the majority too.

[RosettaStoned]

Texas is, like the Alamo, literally the last bastion of freedom.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ehhh, I think if Texas actually flips, it's gone like Virginia, not a protracted fight like Arizona or Nevada.  Houston having the votes to squash any Dem campaign seen as too anti-oil if it wanted to does make the situation a bit more complicated, but at the end of the day, either I-35 outvotes rural Texas or it doesn't.

Also, I'm way more open to the idea of 7-10% Republican wins becoming normal in Florida than most people here, but a 2:1 Republican blowout like Texas in 2004?!

Could happen in FL if Palm Beach becomes even and Rs continue to make gains in Dade, Broward.

Jews seem to have the same respect for incumbency as do Hispanics and Asians. Biden also underperformed in heavily Jewish Broward county as well. The lowered margin wasn't just a Miami thing. The 2020 R swing could be a fluke.

[TodayJunior]

It won't, D's don't have much of a bench in TX but they do in FL, the only person thats willing to take on Abbott is McCounghey and he doesn't even post on Facebook about it

Dems have CRIST and Grayson and the Gaetz story that can take down Rubio and DeSantis, but again DeSANTIS is more valuable to the Rs than Rubio and Gaetz was close to DeSantis not Rubio

DeSantis and Rubio will win by >10%, if not >15%

No, No, No, No, NOOOOOOOOOOOO

DeSantis is up 10 in Dem-Biased Polls against the best Dem Candidates.

I have to admit he has the advantage, but with such a polarized state, the math just simply isn’t there for that size of a victory. Ultimately, this race will be within 5 points.