What do you think the true toll of Covid is in India?

[Samof94]

What does everyone think the toll in India is??

[Silent Hunter]

At least a million.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The true toll will be on the population when this thing swirls around India 24-7-365 and becomes an endemic breeding ground giving rise to a more deadly strain.

We are not far from it now the way they are heading.

Hopefully, the Indians get herd immunity if it goes full snot.

[Stranger in a strange land]

At least a million.

My personal rule of thumb for COVID cases in the developing world is that the number of cases and deaths is generally 5-10 times worse than the official figures - and for developed countries the number of cases is probably 2-3 times worse, and deaths are probably 1.5-2 times worse)

[Pericles]

India's death toll would need to be well over 2 million to be the same on a per capita basis as what the US experienced, and there would need to be a big underestimate for India's wave right now to have the same per capita death toll as the US did at its peak. India is probably being helped by a younger population. That said, India's government has handled it poorly and this has caused a very tragic outcome there, which is a threat to the world with the share number of potential opportunities for new variants to spread.

[mileslunn]

For cases its probably 5x to 10x higher but death toll closer to double.  Undercount is probably more on cases as they miss a lot who get sick but never get tested and recover.  Deaths fewer misses.  Where problem in India would be is most likely hits the poor as many live in large family and crowded conditions never mind have to go to work every day just to provide basics thus social distancing is not feasible. 

The one advantage on death is India has a fairly young population so deaths relative to cases probably not as bad as Europe despite much weaker health care system.  In West, deaths are overwhelmingly amongst over 70 and while some under that die, they are very much in the minority.  The percentage of population in India over 70 is much smaller than in West.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully, the Indians get herd immunity if it goes full snot.

Herd immunity will happen, eventually.

But at what price?

[Samof94]

For cases its probably 5x to 10x higher but death toll closer to double.  Undercount is probably more on cases as they miss a lot who get sick but never get tested and recover.  Deaths fewer misses.  Where problem in India would be is most likely hits the poor as many live in large family and crowded conditions never mind have to go to work every day just to provide basics thus social distancing is not feasible. 

The one advantage on death is India has a fairly young population so deaths relative to cases probably not as bad as Europe despite much weaker health care system.  In West, deaths are overwhelmingly amongst over 70 and while some under that die, they are very much in the minority.  The percentage of population in India over 70 is much smaller than in West.

Brazil has kids dying.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

India's death toll would need to be well over 2 million to be the same on a per capita basis as what the US experienced, and there would need to be a big underestimate for India's wave right now to have the same per capita death toll as the US did at its peak. India is probably being helped by a younger population. That said, India's government has handled it poorly and this has caused a very tragic outcome there, which is a threat to the world with the share number of potential opportunities for new variants to spread.

According to Financial Times the under-count might be as big as 5-20. This is based on the date from crematoriums from some big cities. And this was like a couple a weeks ago, when hospitals were "just" "moderately" overwhelmed.  In its turn, many crematoriums got overwhelmed as well.

So I think, they are likely above US's peak per capita, and quite likely above UK's as well. Perhaps by a lot.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A month old story, actually, from April, 21st.

https://www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403
India’s devastating second wave: ‘It is much worse this time’
New variant suspected of stoking surge that is overwhelming hospitals and crematoriums

A Financial Times analysis also points to under-reporting of deaths. Local news reports for seven districts across the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar show that while at least 1,833 people are known to have died of Covid-19 in recent days, based mainly on cremations, only 228 have been officially reported.

In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported.

The situation in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, a state of 200m that is among India’s poorest, highlights how health infrastructure has been pushed to breaking point. Local media reported that at King George’s Medical University, there was a queue of 50 people per hospital bed.