Texas and other Sunbelt states

[Roll Roons]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

[If my soul was made of stone]

If rural bleeding in North Carolina refuses to stop while urban trends and the flow of expatriates level off, and suburban Texas trends continue like they did in 2018 and 2020 with the RGV leveling off or bouncing back somewhat, Texas could vote left of North Carolina reasonably soon. Since Texas is in some ways a better state demographically for Dems than either Arizona or Georgia but still votes right of them consistently, I don't see that changing soon.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.  It cannot exist in anything close to its current form without winning Texas.  Texas, California, New York, and Illinois are over 140 electoral votes on their own.

I don't see a scenario where Texas votes to the left of Georgia.  Georgia is going to be the next Virginia sooner or later. 

North Carolina could go either way.

I could see a scenario where Arizona votes to the right of Texas if Democrats push too hard on socialism and moderate suburban whites and seniors revolt.  The vote Biden got in NC/GA is probably more solid than the vote he got in Arizona which was in decent part a revulsion to Trump.  I think a more typical Republican would have won against Biden in Arizona.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems could actually build a blue wall without even winning Georgia: https://www.270towin.com/maps/82GkX

Just winning the Acela corridor, the Southwest/West and Illinois.  But this is not a great base for the senate.

[Devils30]

I'm not as high on Minnesota and New Hampshire for the GOP than some others, both have a well above average % of college grads and New England whites with a degree are more D than Hispanics.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.

That's true, and the flip will probably facilitate the next realignment, but it's important to note that Texas will be a swing state long before it's a blue state. If the Democrat screws up, a Republican could win with the current paths to victory for some time.

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.  It cannot exist in anything close to its current form without winning Texas.  Texas, California, New York, and Illinois are over 140 electoral votes on their own.

I don't see a scenario where Texas votes to the left of Georgia.  Georgia is going to be the next Virginia sooner or later. 

North Carolina could go either way.

I could see a scenario where Arizona votes to the right of Texas if Democrats push too hard on socialism and moderate suburban whites and seniors revolt.  The vote Biden got in NC/GA is probably more solid than the vote he got in Arizona which was in decent part a revulsion to Trump.  I think a more typical Republican would have won against Biden in Arizona.

AZ has a lot more retirees and resort living than TX.  That could mean it stops moving left or gets pulled back right a lot sooner than TX.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.  It cannot exist in anything close to its current form without winning Texas.  Texas, California, New York, and Illinois are over 140 electoral votes on their own.

I don't see a scenario where Texas votes to the left of Georgia.  Georgia is going to be the next Virginia sooner or later. 

North Carolina could go either way.

I could see a scenario where Arizona votes to the right of Texas if Democrats push too hard on socialism and moderate suburban whites and seniors revolt.  The vote Biden got in NC/GA is probably more solid than the vote he got in Arizona which was in decent part a revulsion to Trump.  I think a more typical Republican would have won against Biden in Arizona.

AZ has a lot more retirees and resort living than TX.  That could mean it stops moving left or gets pulled back right a lot sooner than TX.

Arizona strikes me as a state with a lot of swing voters and will probably continue to have new voters moving in and out.  I could see it being a swing state for a while.  Whereas I think Georgia might be Virginia level blue in 8 years.

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.  It cannot exist in anything close to its current form without winning Texas.  Texas, California, New York, and Illinois are over 140 electoral votes on their own.

I don't see a scenario where Texas votes to the left of Georgia.  Georgia is going to be the next Virginia sooner or later. 

North Carolina could go either way.

I could see a scenario where Arizona votes to the right of Texas if Democrats push too hard on socialism and moderate suburban whites and seniors revolt.  The vote Biden got in NC/GA is probably more solid than the vote he got in Arizona which was in decent part a revulsion to Trump.  I think a more typical Republican would have won against Biden in Arizona.

AZ has a lot more retirees and resort living than TX.  That could mean it stops moving left or gets pulled back right a lot sooner than TX.

Arizona strikes me as a state with a lot of swing voters and will probably continue to have new voters moving in and out.  I could see it being a swing state for a while.  Whereas I think Georgia might be Virginia level blue in 8 years.

Arizona IMO follows a Florida trajectory where the next cycle or 2 is the peak for Dems and then it swings back gradually.

Texas probably follows a Virginia trajectory with the oil and gas areas being like the coal mining areas in VA-09, but there is some chance the Hispanic swing is enough for R's to hold on.  At the very least, it's on hold for a cycle or 2.

I also want to emphasize that regional voting is mostly a thing of the past.  Individual state factors are much more relevant.

[Samof94]

I'm not as high on Minnesota and New Hampshire for the GOP than some others, both have a well above average % of college grads and New England whites with a degree are more D than Hispanics.

There is Maine, which might be a better fit for the GOP.

[Orca]

I think it's definitely possible we see TX to the left of many swing states, even ones trending to the left fast like AZ and GA. TX went 4 pts to the left this election even with the massive Rio Grande swings, so we could definitely see TX becoming a dem state in a decade and a solid one in two or three (VA went from a red state 17 years ago to a >10 pt dem state now, and it went to the left slower than TX is).

[Skill and Chance]

Something that gets underplayed here is that we are actually pretty close to a world where Dems absolutely have to win Texas to win the presidency.  This map would be a narrower EC win than Biden and if they fail in TX, NC can't save them:


 

[Roll Roons]

Something that gets underplayed here is that we are actually pretty close to a world where Dems absolutely have to win Texas to win the presidency.  This map would be a narrower EC win than Biden and if they fail in TX, NC can't save them:


 

I'm not sure I see MI/NV/PA/WI becoming reliably Republican. I think all four will remain purple for some time. In your scenario, Democrats can win without Texas if they get PA plus any one of the other three.

[Skill and Chance]

Something that gets underplayed here is that we are actually pretty close to a world where Dems absolutely have to win Texas to win the presidency.  This map would be a narrower EC win than Biden and if they fail in TX, NC can't save them:


 

I'm not sure I see MI/NV/PA/WI becoming reliably Republican. I think all four will remain purple for some time.

MI is the one that I could most easily see staying Dem into the long run.  That would be a game changer for EC math because it preserves a non-Texas path.

 

[David Hume]

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have each voted to the left of Texas in every election since 1992. But would it be possible for Texas to vote to the left of any of these states in the near future? And what would make it happen?

If Republicans do lose all four, they are, of course, screwed in the Electoral College unless they make inroads into double-digit Biden territory: https://www.270towin.com/maps/6GRVd. Would blue Texas spell automatic doom for the GOP in its current form?

If you're wondering about Florida, I excluded it because it's much easier to see it voting to the right of Texas in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee.

Yes, blue Texas ends the Republican Party in its current form.  It cannot exist in anything close to its current form without winning Texas.  Texas, California, New York, and Illinois are over 140 electoral votes on their own.

I don't see a scenario where Texas votes to the left of Georgia.  Georgia is going to be the next Virginia sooner or later. 

North Carolina could go either way.

I could see a scenario where Arizona votes to the right of Texas if Democrats push too hard on socialism and moderate suburban whites and seniors revolt.  The vote Biden got in NC/GA is probably more solid than the vote he got in Arizona which was in decent part a revulsion to Trump.  I think a more typical Republican would have won against Biden in Arizona.

AZ has a lot more retirees and resort living than TX.  That could mean it stops moving left or gets pulled back right a lot sooner than TX.

Arizona strikes me as a state with a lot of swing voters and will probably continue to have new voters moving in and out.  I could see it being a swing state for a while.  Whereas I think Georgia might be Virginia level blue in 8 years.

Arizona IMO follows a Florida trajectory where the next cycle or 2 is the peak for Dems and then it swings back gradually.

Texas probably follows a Virginia trajectory with the oil and gas areas being like the coal mining areas in VA-09, but there is some chance the Hispanic swing is enough for R's to hold on.  At the very least, it's on hold for a cycle or 2.

I also want to emphasize that regional voting is mostly a thing of the past.  Individual state factors are much more relevant.

The problem with AZ is it does not have large rural reservoir like FL and NC. I am not positive that the suburban D trend will slow down unless D goes too radical. I would say it's closer to CO than FL.

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas potentially becoming the deciding state is actually pretty frightening.  One nice thing about the electoral college is if there's a dispute where it comes down to one state you can do a recount there and check for anomalies.  Could you imagine in a state as large as Texas, especially with all the corruption there right now.  There would be endless stories of issues in some precinct in Houston, or Dallas, or Austin, or San Antonio, etc.  At least if it came down to Wisconsin you're talking about 3 million or so total votes.

Plus if it's the key to the map it really negates so many other states.  Why focus on 5 swing states when you can get just as many electoral votes in Texas and winning 4 of the 5 won't get you there. 

[Skill and Chance]

Texas potentially becoming the deciding state is actually pretty frightening.  One nice thing about the electoral college is if there's a dispute where it comes down to one state you can do a recount there and check for anomalies.  Could you imagine in a state as large as Texas, especially with all the corruption there right now.  There would be endless stories of issues in some precinct in Houston, or Dallas, or Austin, or San Antonio, etc.  At least if it came down to Wisconsin you're talking about 3 million or so total votes.

Plus if it's the key to the map it really negates so many other states.  Why focus on 5 swing states when you can get just as many electoral votes in Texas and winning 4 of the 5 won't get you there. 

New York played this role during all the close elections in the post Civil War generation.  It was a total mess.

[Samof94]

Texas potentially becoming the deciding state is actually pretty frightening.  One nice thing about the electoral college is if there's a dispute where it comes down to one state you can do a recount there and check for anomalies.  Could you imagine in a state as large as Texas, especially with all the corruption there right now.  There would be endless stories of issues in some precinct in Houston, or Dallas, or Austin, or San Antonio, etc.  At least if it came down to Wisconsin you're talking about 3 million or so total votes.

Plus if it's the key to the map it really negates so many other states.  Why focus on 5 swing states when you can get just as many electoral votes in Texas and winning 4 of the 5 won't get you there. 

New York played this role during all the close elections in the post Civil War generation.  It was a total mess.

True. Lincoln himself barely won it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas potentially becoming the deciding state is actually pretty frightening.  One nice thing about the electoral college is if there's a dispute where it comes down to one state you can do a recount there and check for anomalies.  Could you imagine in a state as large as Texas, especially with all the corruption there right now.  There would be endless stories of issues in some precinct in Houston, or Dallas, or Austin, or San Antonio, etc.  At least if it came down to Wisconsin you're talking about 3 million or so total votes.

Plus if it's the key to the map it really negates so many other states.  Why focus on 5 swing states when you can get just as many electoral votes in Texas and winning 4 of the 5 won't get you there. 

New York played this role during all the close elections in the post Civil War generation.  It was a total mess.

Yeah, it probably will be now too.  Not looking forward to politics over the next 20 years.